Random Roger

Sam, There is probably no way to really know but ...

2012-05-27T10:59:17.045-07:00

Sam,

There is probably no way to really know but hurricanes seem worse to me; you can't really fight a hurricane. The utilization question raises an interesting call for introspection. i would say it is not how much we know going into the incident but how much can we learn from it? We learned a lot from this one and hopefully we didn't make assess of ourselves

RW i knew you were familiar with the area but not that you lived here. We go to the Iron Springs Cafe for just about every special--our favorite.

Roger, didn't I mention that? I lived off Iron...

2012-05-27T08:34:44.056-07:00

Roger, didn't I mention that? I lived off Iron Springs rd near the north end of town. Had brunch at the Iron Springs Cafe at least once a month as I recall (if it is still there and you like spicy I can recommend their gumbo). Don't think I ever made it up to Walker though.

OT but, as is my wont, I've been reviewing real interest rates at the US Treasury web site (http://tinyurl.com/3h37ach) and the real yields of 5, 7 and 10-year TIPS are all negative now. We are still quite close to the cliff of economic depression I'm afraid and disinflationary/contractionary headwinds still exist that could push us back towards it.

My disaster preparation experience is with hurrica...

2012-05-27T08:31:11.380-07:00

My disaster preparation experience is with hurricanes. I find the similarities interesting. Hurricanes generally provide a good deal of lead time, most of which is wasted by government officials due to the expense of relocating urban populations from a coastal location to an urban location.

Given the degree of training you have personally undertaken, are your skills being utilized by the state or federal agencies that coordinate the emergency response for evacuation logistics?

I'm glad you have been spared the disaster,

Sam

mostly hindsight bias and some confirmation bias ...

2012-05-26T10:04:17.446-07:00

mostly hindsight bias and some confirmation bias

RW, i knew you were familiar with Prescott, I don't recall you mentioning you used to live here. Very neat.

When I lived in Prescott we passed on a good house...

2012-05-26T08:00:01.399-07:00

When I lived in Prescott we passed on a good house with only one road access and settled for another not quite as good but with two ways out for exactly that reason: Fire escape.

Glad to hear the weather helped a bit and the fire was controllable.

Good news on the fire! Specific examples of biase...

2012-05-26T07:40:48.504-07:00

Good news on the fire!

Specific examples of biases and fallacies you referred to would be interesting if you have time to share.

Just to be contrary (sort of), a WSJ article from ...

2012-05-24T07:00:10.963-07:00

Just to be contrary (sort of), a WSJ article from a few days ago warned against monetizing one's passion. The article featured a reporter who tried to turn his love for tennis into a business with bad results. True, it was a full time endeavor, not retirement income. Still, tread carefully here.

Facebook. Ha. Absolute statements about the cert...

2012-05-23T12:12:05.357-07:00

Facebook.

Ha.

Absolute statements about the certainy of one's market predictions as a portfolio strategy.

Ha.

T

Good luck with the fire.

2012-05-23T10:59:13.876-07:00

Good luck with the fire.

The market has not yet made a bottom. Some indicat...

2012-05-23T07:12:44.034-07:00

The market has not yet made a bottom. Some indicators have but the market needs confirmation. So yerstaday action was to get the market in neutral to resume the descend.
Jeff from nyc

Hmm, might be an idea to put some, but not all, ca...

2012-05-22T20:56:27.328-07:00

Hmm, might be an idea to put some, but not all, cash (well, money in an Absolute Return vehicle) to work; buy an index - the UK looks a bit beaten up right now.

Good luck with Mrs Nature, Roger. Got fingers crossed for you.

Things like "selective dissemination" wo...

2012-05-22T12:03:08.396-07:00

Things like "selective dissemination" would not seem to be at all new. It would seem to be illegal but I don't know precisely--certainly it doesn't pass the smell test.

I just assume this goes on. One way to avoid a chunk of this is to not chase the hottest thing and FB was the hottest thing before it actually came out.

Roger. Sounds like you are doing a good job on th...

2012-05-22T08:16:25.278-07:00

Roger. Sounds like you are doing a good job on the fire; best of luck. Returning to investing, here is a link to a story on the FB IPO that makes one think the Obama SEC is no better than Bush's:

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/facebook-bankers-secretly-cut-facebook-revenue-estimates-middle-133648905.html

If what this story is saying is true, my opinion is someone(s) should be rooming with Bernie Madoff for a while. Comments? Thanks.

and thank you for the well wishes

2012-05-21T07:59:38.737-07:00

and thank you for the well wishes

they were able to seriously fortify the part of th...

2012-05-21T07:58:36.814-07:00

they were able to seriously fortify the part of the fire line that would seem to threaten our area so just as you imply the threat of spotting ahead of the line comes more into play.

Roger, Best of luck with the fire. Having fought ...

2012-05-21T07:56:28.001-07:00

Roger,

Best of luck with the fire. Having fought fire in the pine barrens of New Jersy. I know how serious wind driven fire can be.

Hope everyone is safe

2012-05-20T19:27:02.593-07:00

Hope everyone is safe

thank you everyone

2012-05-20T14:39:54.144-07:00

thank you everyone

Google Earth is an amazing piece of software. Hopi...

2012-05-20T12:00:54.793-07:00

Google Earth is an amazing piece of software. Hoping you avoid flames and smoke. Been enjoying your blog for awhile now. Carissa's Dad.

Hope things work out. Jeff from nyc

2012-05-20T08:51:29.838-07:00

Hope things work out.
Jeff from nyc

Here's hoping for an early start to the monsoo...

2012-05-20T08:36:49.973-07:00

Here's hoping for an early start to the monsoon season.

NB: There are books I have returned to again and again -- usually at 7-10 year intervals give a take a few -- and I'd have to make a box of those for evacuation; leaving them behind would tear.

Good luck x2. Wish we could divine the water from...

2012-05-20T07:11:36.766-07:00

Good luck x2.

Wish we could divine the water from our forthcoming tropical storm to Prescott.

T

Wow, good luck, Roger.

2012-05-20T06:26:39.943-07:00

Wow, good luck, Roger.

Hi Roger: Love the blog and admire your work but h...

2012-05-19T09:43:36.350-07:00

Hi Roger: Love the blog and admire your work but honestly you kind of danced around the question. What I read is you will not get "agressively" defensive b/c of the up sloping 200 day MA and the absence of the 2% rule. But you didn't make any attempt to quantify what this means (which was the question.) So how do you define not being agressively defensive? Do you target an overall portfolio beta (if so what are you trying to reduce it to), do you bring your equity level down to a certain point (if so how much? ) I think this was the question.

Roger. Good post today, and you have been very co...

2012-05-19T09:29:49.801-07:00

Roger. Good post today, and you have been very consistent concerning the 2% rule. I don't recall your having mentioned any moving averages other than the 200-day. That said, doing some redimentary technical analysis via Yahoo Finance, I note the 50-day moving average is above the 200-day (this surprises me given the market action since May 1), but that the 50-day has a slightly negative slope. Do you take any action with regard to the 50-day or perhaps when the 50-day crosses the 200-day? Thank you.