Earlier this week it emerged that the girlfriend was a hoax. Te'o claims he was the victim of the hoax because she was an "internet girlfriend" whom he'd never actually met. The other side of the story is that Te'o had a hand in perpetuating the hoax to help his football career.
Regardless of whether Te'o was involved or not this was big, big news three months ago and the girlfriend turning out to be hoax was in no way reasonably predictable by anyone.
Contrast that with the Lance Armstrong story. Cycling has been riddled with athletes using PEDs for years and also for years people in a position to have at least some idea have been saying Armstrong cheated. Anyone could have been surprised this week but this has been reasonably predicted by many people.
The term Black Swan gets thrown around a lot and often done so incorrectly. There are investment strategies and investment products sold on the idea of offering Black Swan protection. There are also many articles that offer lists of Black Swans to watch out for. These are not Black Swans they are tangible threats that will either come to matter or they won't.
The idea of banks being over leveraged (and having other problems) and the real estate market imploding was less of a black swan than the bond market ceasing up and not functioning for a brief time in October 2008 as a result of the banks and real estate problems.
Back to Armstrong, I can't reconcile my thoughts on this whole thing. He cheated and lied about it very aggressively; point conceded. I still can't come to a conclusion.
10 comments:
Didn't have any problems with the sanctions -- those are the published rules -- my biggest question WRT Armstrong was how difficult it would be to figure out who really won those Tours given the probability that most or even all of the top-ranked competitors were doping too.
This is like the prisoners dilemma and (still) too much of Wall Street frankly: The bad tends to drive out the good; when cheating is rampant, the winning move is to cheat ...or leave, if you can.
Was turning over investment money to Bernie Madoff a black swan event? All outward appearances at the time indicated he was legit. We now know it was a hoax.
Not sure what this has to do with anything except a link between investing and hoaxes.
The whole Lance thing is a cluster. My wife asked me how much longer I was going to wear the yellow bracelet. You raise a great question about figuring out who won.
Madoff as a black swan? Was it widely known that he had a money management division in addition to market making? It was probably a black swan to his investors.
Roger,
A rich person who threatens and intimidates poor people sues them and lies under oath to ruin there lives should go to jail for their perjury.
If that fits a banker everyone would want to hang them. If that fits a cyclists why should they not be in jail?
I am a big cycling fan and used to be a big Armstrong fan, but I have never been a fan of rich people committing crimes to ruin the lives of other people.
SEG
I can't refute what you are saying. I am not defending him at all, merely saying I can't reconcile it and ultimately draw a conclusion.
With regard to Lance, I would encourage you to read the retirement speech recently given by Nicole Cook, the great British cyclist. She reflects on the fact that cheaters create conditions such that honest riders cannot earn a livelihood in the sport:
"I am appalled that so many men bleat on about the fact that the pressures were too great. Too great for what? This is not doing 71 mph on the motorway when the legal limit is 70. This is stealing somebody else's livelihood. It is theft just as much as putting your hand in a purse or wallet and taking money is theft. Theft has gone on since the dawn of time but because somebody, somewhere else, does it, does not mean it is right for you to do it. There can be no excuse."
Her full, outstanding speech is here: http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2013/jan/14/nicole-cooke-retirement-statement
I would say that for all the good he has done in terms of raising awareness about cancer and breaking taboos about talking about cancer, the man himself is a disgrace. We already knew that based on the Usada report, though.
In a perverted way, I really could care less that LA used EPO or any other PED. Is it wrong? Yes...but this is an institutional problem, not a personal failing. It is magnified and turned into a circus before our eyes because of the personality involved, not the deed. If it were the deed, then I seriously doubt there would be much of a race each July in the countryside of France due to lack of available participants!
Not sure why, but this whole "moral crisis" and coverage makes me laugh. We have lost perspective and focus on things that simply do not matter. Perhpas it is because Rome is burning? I don't know...
This is an interesting post. I was going to rant about the degrading of morals, blah blah blah but I just realized something...
Had Notre Dame won the National Championship would our reaction have been as ambiguous as with Lance Armstrong? Are we actually being harder on Manti because he lost?
Well, your yellow bracelet question is now actually easier. Lance separated (or was separated) from Livestrong some weeks ago. So now it's a regular charitable organization.
1. Do you support what they do?
2. Do you agree with their funding model (i.e. x% goes to administrative expenses, etc.)
There are hundreds of various athletes who have cheated with steroids or what ever. I do not care about that.
Lance has muscled people, sicked lawyers on them and committed perjury to crush others. That is despicable and he doe belong in jail.
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