The above is the title to an interview I did with Seeking Alpha to kick off their annual positioning for the new year series. Below is an excerpt and you can
read the entire post here. Thanks to the folks at Seeking Alpha for letting me participate.
JL: As we approach 2013, are you bullish or bearish?
RN:
The terms bullish and bearish don’t offer much real value. We try to
sort out the various positives and negatives that exist to create a
baseline scenario. Typically this means taking what we know about market
history and combining it with what we think is going on now to try to
make a forward looking analysis. The nature of stock market and economic
cycles in the US is that they usually last four or five years. We are
almost at four years from the bottom for stocks and the economy and so
it makes sense to expect that we are near the end of both cycles. The
nonsense going on in Washington could be a trigger for ending these
cycles, or it could be coincidental but for now we are wary.
2 comments:
Interesting that you hold DGL as your gold holding; I didn't know about that one.
That's one of the things I consider "wild" about the last decade. Between GLD, IAU, and GLD, that's about $83 BILLION in gold holdings that have come up in the last decade.
And people wonder why gold has been in a bull market!
Stephen,
DGL is in RRGR not client accounts. The reason is that the structure of GLD can create "bad income" depending on the size of a capital gain if sold. Too much "bad income" would jeopardize the existence of the fund so it is easier to own the safe wrapper--DGL.
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