JL: As we approach 2013, are you bullish or bearish?
RN: The terms bullish and bearish don’t offer much real value. We try to sort out the various positives and negatives that exist to create a baseline scenario. Typically this means taking what we know about market history and combining it with what we think is going on now to try to make a forward looking analysis. The nature of stock market and economic cycles in the US is that they usually last four or five years. We are almost at four years from the bottom for stocks and the economy and so it makes sense to expect that we are near the end of both cycles. The nonsense going on in Washington could be a trigger for ending these cycles, or it could be coincidental but for now we are wary.