Wikinvest Wire

Tuesday, October 02, 2012

No One Wins Them All, and That Is Ok

One purpose of this site is to let anyone so inclined look over my shoulder at the moves I make in the portfolio I manage for separate accounts and the exchange traded fund we sub-advise. When a decision is made to by or sell something I post about it a day or two later--obviously I don't announce a trade here before I place it for clients.

As I say frequently, an actively managed portfolio is a series of decisions and hopefully more of those decisions will turn out to be correct than not. A byproduct of these posts disclosing trades is that people often point out some risk or other form of drawback to stock or the trade. If you write openly you should expect various forms of criticism and after eight years and counting it is not a surprise.

The point here today is not to try debate any commenter on Seeking Alpha but to point out that in buying or selling something there is a risk of being wrong. In selecting a stock to buy there are pros and there are negatives. Every great stock that has ever existed had or today has negatives. When a decision is made to buy something, then hopefully whatever the analytical process was, found the negatives, the big ones anyway, and took those negatives into account.

However much research goes into picking a stock it is not likely that every little thing that exists can be found but hopefully the big ones can be. Any investor who routinely gets blindsided probably needs to figure out another way. Getting blindsided occasionally might be an occupational hazard however that fits in with no one being able to be correct every single time.

Unrelated, there is a potentially interesting 30 for 30 documentary on ESPN tonight about the extent to which so many professional athletes squander their millions. It will be interesting to see if the timing worked out that Curt Schilling gets any mention. His story is that he saved up a bunch of money and put it all (so he has said) into a video game company that he ran and then the company went bust. Aside from putting a lot of people out of work (tragic on a societal level) he did not hold back a little bit of a personal cushion just in case. He worked this summer for ESPN as a baseball analyst and while I'm sure that pays well I doubt it will replace the tens of millions he lost.

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

what is a great stock?

the answer says a lot about the person and his investment style.

Roger Nusbaum said...

one definition might be a stock that exceeded expectations for many years.

Anonymous said...

some would say great stocks are those that are mispriced by the market

Anonymous said...

being blindsided is a good reason to have margin of safety built in to all investment purchases.

Anonymous said...

From what I understand, Shilling was opposed to government handouts.......but, he took millions from the government that was never paid back....gotta love that type of thinking!

Anonymous said...

10:36 - Yes, that was my understanding as well, schilling talking out of both sides of his mouth. I expect he will soon announce his candidacy for political office.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the heads-up on the espn show, i love that sort of thing, planned on watching it till i saw in my tv listing 'flashdance' being shown at the same time. Sorry, but the chicks win.

Anonymous said...

If buying lottery tickets is a tax on stupidity; what do you call the obscene amounts of money spent on professional sports?

It's great to live in American where everyone can choose to bankrupt themselves anyway they please...and I don't mean the athletes...but the poor fools who spend their wages watching those mostly illiterate criminals.

I only wish my tax money didn't support such nonsense. Oh well, the show depicts an interesting twist on wealth redistribution. Couldn't happen to a more deserving bunch. Ha Ha Ha Ha

Roger Nusbaum said...

7:20,

you create the impression of having a lot of hatred and anger for all sorts of people.

Anonymous said...

yeah, I guess you're right. I hate the gangsta athlete culture. I am angry that our public officials promote it with my tax money.

The intelligent athletes who have moved on to lead successful lives should be held up as role models. Sadly, they seem to be a rarity.

Anonymous said...

Hate to say it, but I second 7:20's comment about professional athletes. A Tim Tebow is a rare exception, because mostly they are just way overpaid buns (and that's putting it nicely).

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