BOOM! Goes the Social Security Assumptions

There was an article in the WSJ yesterday about the IMF warning anyone who will listen that models for life expectancy currently being used by pensions and government entitlement programs underestimate how long people will live. The conclusion was that this adds about $7 trillion to what most studies believe to be the totality of the social security and medicare future shortfalls.

Over the years the articles I've read about life expectancy seem to believe that expectancies will increase at an accelerating rate due to medical innovation. When I've mentioned this in the past there have been comments about not wanting to last for years in a frail state needing to be cared for down to the most personal of daily tasks. That is not the context of the work being done in the field.

Obviously it will be a couple of decades or longer before we know whether this holds water and if it does, how much water it holds but we know that people generally are living longer and we know that there will continue to be medical advancement and we will learn more about nutrition and other lifestyle habits that offer the plausible outcome of living well for a longer period of time.

Where this possibility exists it drew one very funny comment about encouraging smoking and repealing motorcycle helmet laws (amusingly helmets are not required in Arizona).

Perhaps with a bit of confirmation bias I believe this supports the idea of social security and medicare looking much different in some number of years (ten? 20?). For many years I have been saying that the programs as we know them are not sustainable. I think that whenever things actually hit the fan we will look back and unsustainability will have been obvious like the way we look back on the tech wreck and the financial crisis (hindsight bias).

Not being an actuary or demographer I certainly have no idea how far down the net worth/income scale that benefit cuts will come but a lot of people relying on social security will have a serious and unfortunate situation befall them which of course is not only a micro problem but will also be a big macro problem.

I tend to believe that plenty of people will figure ways to get by without being homeless even if it is difficult, involves a lot of sacrifice and taking some sort of job that they view as undesirable. There will still be a lot of problems on the personal economic front but individual problem solving is worth something.

Individual problem solving is what living below your means (something I've written about almost obsessively) is all about. Spending less allows for saving more which hopefully results on less reliance on a social program that may not be there for you. This does not mean live like a monk in a cardboard box but presumably as you get a little further along in your profession and start to make a little more money you could increase your personal savings rate.

Also if the scenario of making more plays out for you for a while but then derails (through no fault of your own--I hate that saying) then you obviously have an easier time covering your monthly expenses either through savings or getting a job at Home Depot or the like. You can cover a decent portion of a $2000-$3000 monthly nut compared to $8000 in expenses with a $10/hour job until the career gets back on track. I speak from experience here. During the year before I started at Your Source I helped put a roof on a garage, helped build a rock well and did some logging among other things to supplement the income that went with only having a couple investment management clients.

On a lighter note, the pictures are a before and after of Smitty, a dog who was dumped on Walker Road. I was on my way to administer a pack test (three miles wearing a 45lb pack with a 45 minute time limit) for three of our firefighters and I saw him on the road. I could not get him to come to me and had to go so I called Joellyn and she and Wiley (one of our dogs) were able to get him into the car in about 30 seconds. We are now fostering him but will not be keeping him.