According to this link I found at Seeking Alpha the EU is predicting it will be headed into recession later this year. The eTrade baby would want to show you his shocked face over this one (paraphrase of my tweet about this yesterday.First, does anyone thing the EU emerged from recession in the first place? I mean really emerged? I would say no but either way I think it is quite obvious that the financial crisis in Europe is alive and well. Countries are falling new desperate action plans are not working and there are serious demographic problems.
Many years ago I read something about Turkey wanting in but that one part of the equation working against them was fear that their large and young population (about 70 million with an average age near 20) would allow them to dominate the EU. There were other issues too but this was the most interesting for how subtle it was. I'm not certain if Turkey still wants in but I wonder if now the EU needs Turkey more than Turkey needs the EU.
One drum I beat regularly is about the worst financial crisis in 80 years taking a long time to sort itself out. Europe will be dealing with the particulars of its crisis for many years as will the US be dealing with its version of the crisis. The US is clearly healthier than Europe but that does not mean all well or that it won't take many years for real estate, as one example and the job market as another, to again get healthy.
I write about this often because I think avoiding or grossly underweighting Europe (and US banks for that matter) will be an easy to add outperformance for some investors and reduce volatility for others.The first picture is Lake Tekapo and the second one is the best shot we could get of Mount Cook. We spent Thursday night at Mount Cook Village but never got a clear view because of inclement weather.
9 comments:
Last night I saw the italian news that Greece, Portugal and Italy are already in recession. But we have felt this before this announcement. Greece, Portugal and Italy are in austerity. RE is tanking in Italy. But markets are heading up. Lots of liquidity is being placed by the central banks including the EU. So, I agrre with you Roger that at one point this thing is going to sell off.
Jeff from Milan Italy
Heh, you had me at "etrade baby."
Man it's annoying that Google makes you type in the words in the picture twice.
And you still have to do it if you're logged in.
Roger:
Love the New Zealand pics - looks gorgeous - and maybe you'll get some sun at some point!
Off-topic question - how extreme are the legal hoops you had to jump through to become an RIA? I've always been curious about this.
Durango Wayne
thanks Wayne.
As far as legal reqs, they are vast and many but not the hat I wear at the firm so I don't have a great sense of the scope involved other than immense.
I am a contractor which mercifully spares me from everything other than fill this form out today type of thing.
Registering as an RIA and maintaining active status is not that difficult but record-keeping requirements are pretty stric. See http://tinyurl.com/7v4dt77
A two-person office, one to maintain the data-base and handle billing and the other to manage the portolio, could probably do the job given the right software.
In the Arizona Republican debate a few nights ago, no one other than Paul had a good plan for reducing the debt. We will neve get out of this debt quagmire without a long term plan. Obama should grab the horse's rein and come up with a plan. This is where we lack in leadership...quit poncing on the other guy and come up with a unique plan...not one that will benefit your ideology and supporters
Thanks for responses to my RIA question, Roger and ANON 11:57
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