There have been times like late 2008 and early 2009 where a lot of frustration and even hostility showed up in the comments of the blog, in the comments on my articles at Seeking Alpha or both. Lately the comments have taken a more aggressive tone than normal on the blog but interestingly not on my posts at Seeking Alpha (SA reruns the same posts).
I've generally been saying the same thing for seven years and sometimes I am a good guy for it and other times I am "deluding" myself. Sentiment is of course very volatile as fear of being broke, losing your nest egg and being out on the street is a core fear for many people and anything the makes those fears perceptually closer to reality, like a malfunctioning stock market, will evoke an emotional response.Emotional responses can be an enemy of long term portfolio success. I repeatedly make the point about taking bits of process from many sources, including this one if you like, to create your own process. Your own process needs to be one that gives you a reasonable basis to think you are giving yourself a reasonable chance of having enough money when you need it. You also need to have a process that you can understand (as obvious as that sounds...) and one that allows you to sleep at night.
It is important to realize that success can be had with any method but failure can also be had with any method. It makes sense to work on refining what you do but contrary to what one comment said, I also think it is valid to dissect other people's mistakes to learn what not to do--this is the reason for the Bill Miller posts over the last few years.
Given how long I've been blogging and the consistency of the posting it is a good bet that I will keep at it which means that although I am deluding myself now, I will be a good guy again soon but then sometime after that I will be back to delusional (or worse to judge by some comments).
As far as commenter sentiment being an anecdotal indicator for stock prices, the comments would seem to be saying stock prices will go higher but unfortunately there is no Seeking Alpha confirmation as there was in late 2008/early 2009.
16 comments:
You are deluding your self if you think your readership is significant enough to be a good sentiment indicator.
I just could not resist :)
"Is the market frustrated?"
What an absurd question. Today's post reveals your insecurity.
The fact that your process "evloves" is revealing too.
Sounds to me like the same person(s) carrying on their own monologue, Roger.
Roger,
I think that what you are seeing in a lot of the recent comments is a phenomenon that Psychiatrists call "Transference" wherein these scared and frustrated investors transfer their angst onto you in a desperate attempt to find "someone" to blame for the crazy market, the inept Congress, a President way out of his depth, and a general malaise they can't seem to deal with.
From what I can see you remain a calm voice of reason despite all the volatility which has occurred this year. That's what is needed when all around you are crying that "the sky is falling"
8:29, I think it is two people but maybe just one.
Retired in Prescott as I think you know this sort of thing has come and gone repeatedly.
Amusingly while I got jabbed here a little bit for Bill Miller, the comments on the same post at SA imply I was not critical enough.
Modern portfolio management frustrates many people because it cannot deliver what it implies it can, good long term returns without volatility. If one invests in the market, one has to expect and be ready for volatility, plain and simple. ETFS, hedges, alternatives, etc., will not give you protection in major market meltdowns.
Reduce debt, have an appropriate time horizon for a diversified equity portfolio, and deal with the volatility that has always existed.
BTW, equities are cheap by any fundamental measure IMO, they just ain't working right now.
Listening to a market pundit yesterday on the radio....his comments...
....when everyone realizes the U.S. and the rest of the world CANNOT pay back the debt levels, there will be a crash and depression similiar to the 30's...
Maybe the Superduper Committee has started this process!
Anon 12:28, I think you are correct in implying that the biggest problem is the overhanging debt; that is gov't debt, not private debt. Washington is currently dysfunctional and I think we are going to have to just suffer through another year before the election may provide a path to at least starting on the road to recovery. I say "may" because the Divider-in-Chief must go before the recovery can start and, given that 47% pay no income tax, he may be able to buy enough votes and tell enough lies ($1B campaign budget) to win re-election. If the Repub's can win the White House and the Senate, and retain the House; real entitlement reform and some tax increases (disguised as tax reform) are possible.
I was thinking the market can't be THAT bad - I remember during 2008 when you'd have like 40 comments.
Anyone ever read any of the books on AIG? I was thinking about fitting in one more book about the financial crisis over the holidays.
I need to sign on Seeking Alpha and leave some nasty comments about you, Roger to get this market back on track! Maybe we get the DZ posse riled up and that will help the cause.
Sam
SD, 40 comments back then? Maybe that ties in to the non-confirmation from Seeking Alpha I mentioned.
Although Sam that ship may have sailed as one nastygram popped in there today :-)
Your response to the so called nastygram at SA is underwhelming. Van Knapp makes a good point about your generalizations.
to: 12:57pm
Yes, a Republican President, Senate and House would really solve all our problems and "unify" the country, wouldn't it? Whew, what color is the sky on your planet???
Uncertainty is extremely high right now which basically means the tail of the risk curve, while still largely unknown, is being treated as if it was fat and growing fatter.
When the 10-year t-bond yield falls below 2% that tells you the bond market considers the prospect for economic growth going forward to be very low. Business managers look at that same data and rationally conclude that spending on production or hiring new employees would not be prudent; doesn't matter if borrowing is cheap, there is no point to it if you expect to make a profit, so only entities who have work to do but do not require profit are in a logical position to borrow. If they do not then the velocity of money must collapse and the economy must shrink, there is no other outcome possible.
If an investment thesis has been disproven in the economic disasters and market failures of the past decade up through this current whiplashing then model or discipline or both should be adjusted. As Lord Keynes pointedly remarked, "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?"
Think Roger has made it pretty clear he prefers to err on the side of caution WRT compliance rules so avoiding specific recommendation and writing in generalities would seem to be an inevitable consequence. In places where folks pay for content that might be subject to legitimate objection but that isn't here.
SD: Not much on AIG although IMF, World Bank, WTO and central banks are fairly well covered, but I don't think I have had as much fun reading a book on nefarious, multi-national business dealings as I had reading Greg Palast's Vulture's Picnic. Pulp nonfiction and Gonzo journalism that in some chapters reaches Hunter S. Thompson levels of sheer (but well documented) weirdness.
SD: "The Quants How a New Breed of Math Whizzes Conquered Wall Street and Nearly Destroyed It" by Scott Patterson
Anon 5:30 PM. Admittedly my post comes off as partisan; that was not the intent and is unfortunate. What I meant to imply is that the Dems had their turn with total control of the gov't during Obama's first 2 years and, I don't think this is partisan, drove the country into the left side of the road ditch. Hopefully, if the Repubs get another chance, they will not re-commit their mistakes of the Bush era and can make some real progress in solving "the" problem of our time--that being, gov't debt. I readily acknowledge that they may not have the will to do this; but I hope they get the chance.
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