Wikinvest Wire

Thursday, September 08, 2011

It Won't Get Easier

Both the WSJ and Reuters has articles yesterday telling why baby boomers are in trouble financially and even sadder was that the articles were about two different things (sort of). The WSJ wrote about boomers having too much debt and not being able to contribute to their savings at a time when they should have their highest income and savings rate. Reuters wrote about fear becoming a self fulfilling profecy and the extent to which fear is keeping boomers under-invested in stocks.

One thing captured in the WSJ article and something I can attest to on an anecdotal basis is that more and more people nearing the traditional retirement age still have plenty of mortgage left to pay. A married couple who'd been here close to 20 years just had to move out over the weekend after getting foreclosed on and while I don't know it would seem they got in trouble with mortgage equity extractions.

One bit of reality that people are go to have to come to terms with is that nothing related to retirement is going to start getting easier. Anyone who is now facing some trouble as a consequence for living beyond their means (as a function of taking on too much consumer debt) is going to have to face that issue head on one way or another. This might mean paying it, defaulting on it or something else but whatever the case the excessive spending will then (hopefully) have to end.

Navigating stock market cycles for people with investment portfolios is not going to get any easier. One of the pillars of this site has been that the same old same old that worked in the 80s and 90s stopped working a long time ago and I would add is not likely to come back.

People certainly might have more trepidation about investing in equity markets but that is where the growth is even if we are not talking about the US market. Avoiding equities is simply a matter of a tradeoff. If you can't live with the volatility that sometimes goes with owning stocks then you need to make up for it elsewhere (saving, spending less, working longer or a combo of all three).

The government is not going to make it any easier as the debate is on just how unhealthy social security and medicare are. Hopefully no one thinks all is perfectly fine with the programs but there are divergent opinions about how much trouble it is or is not in. I've said many times I expect to get nothing.

As I have said many times this is a challenge for each of us to solve for ourselves--at least I believe the people who view it this way will have a much better chance of having financial success. One of the people quoted in the WSJ was "not quite 50" and had been hoping to retire by 55 but now feels he cannot. I've seen one or two comments from friends from highschool on Facebook about looking forward to retirement.

On a philosophical level I view this as wishing your life away as opposed to focusing on the journey. Also part of my belief system is that some sort of work late into life provides a reason to get up, keeps people engaged, keeps them challenged mentally, keeps them at least a little active and might bring in a little income. I've mentioned my father here every so often. He is 85 and does a bunch of little things that keep him hopping including "helping" people near where he lives with little business ideas they have going. The reason I put helping in quotes is that this is how he has referred to it for the last I don't know how many years but it turns out he gets paid for these gigs, which I did not know until his last visit here a few months ago.

The example of my father checks off all the boxes as does the example of my neighbor with the backhoe whom I've mentioned dozens of times. This is work they each enjoying doing regardless of the pay. Thinking of it in terms of pre-retirement income is the wrong context; the income derived is a part of their individual solutions.

This is a tie in to a point I've made many times about figuring out how to get paid for doing something you love and would otherwise do for free. Too many people confine their thinking of post-retirement work as being forced to do something they think is dreadful (many commenters have mentioned things like being the Walmart greeter) which is not what I have in mind with these posts.

This sort of willingness to innovate will come easier to people who generally like problem solving and planning and will come all the easier to people who not only like problem solving but who also have a little self discipline with their spending and saving.

Pity parties and lament is the wrong combination to bring to the table. This will take planning and a positive attitude.

The picture is of what turned out to be not a serious collision in a practice lap at the recent Indycar race in Baltimore. You can click here for the video but essentially Tony Kanaan's car got airborne and his left wheels got very close to Helio Castroneves' head.

15 comments:

Anonymous said...

One big game changer for a lot of the people I know, high tech people working for big tech companies, is that many of them haven't gotten a meaningful pay raise in about 10 years. It is hard to keep saving more when we have food/gas/insurance, etc inflation and little income growth.

I find the debate about ponzi scheme/social security interesting. It sure seems like SS is modeled after it. With the younger people, the payers, drying up I don't know why it won't implode.

winslow said...

SS can actually fairly easily be righted but the political process will not allow it. As smart as Americans think they are, they have no common sense in long-term planning.

Medicaid is another story. Democrats think universal coverage will correct the problems; it won't. Republicans believe free-market forces will work in medicine; it won't.

Anonymous said...

A Ponzi scheme has a specific definition and meaning and despite Mr. Perry's buffonish bluster, Social Security is not in fact a Ponzi scheme or anything close to one. However, if you say something often enough...etc.

Anonymous said...

Roger, thought I read way-back on the blog that you were not into wheeled sports; but apparently you follow IndyCar, at least some. Curious, what do you think of Danica Patrick's move to NASCAR next year. I say, "Go, Girl." She is, in my opinion, chasing dollars, and there is nothing wrong with that.

Anonymous said...

Roger,

I use to go on cruise vacations a lot (cheap vacation if you live in FL IMO)

I use to read cruise on line sites. One lady asked if she should go on a cruise or remodel her kitchen one day during the housing bubble. Another lady replied she did both because that is what home equity loans were for!!!!

I do not think you realize how unrealistic many people up to their neck in debt have behaved.

BTW, you have a dream job, in a dream location. Most people do not. Do not get to upset with many people who look forward to retirement.

Roger Nusbaum said...

anon 1:58 not a NASCAR or IRL person, but I like the Dakar. The near miss for Helio was mentioned on PTI which is how I heard about it.

anon 3:21 you raise fair points. To the extent my lifestyle is in anyway enviable the barrier to entry is quite low. Find a cheap house in an inexpensive place and be ready to start from scratch with your career and be willing to take sidework to pay the bills until the career catches on.

Thank you for the kind word though.

Anonymous said...

Roger,

I never intended to imply you have not EARNED your job or location. You deserve it. But your high school friends also deserve their retirement or dream of retirement.

Anonymous said...

BTW the barrier to entry is quite high. You do not realize how competent you are.

Anonymous said...

Also, I am in flagstaff and going to the grand canyon. my wife has rheumatoid arthritis. what are the best areas to walk the rim? Where is the best place for me to go down the canyon for a view with an easy down and back?

Roger Nusbaum said...

I took no offense to any of your comments. I do think the idea of living in a cheap house in an inexpensive locale and being willing to do whatever it takes is a low barrier but maybe not.

thank for the compliment, I have my moments :-)

as far as the canyon are you going to the south rim, the one up 64 near Williams? There are all sorts of trails all over the place up top that stay up top--meaning they are flat and offer views of the canyon. As far as hiking down, there are a lot of those too but i only know two and have only hiked one. The East Kaibab is the steepest one I know of. If you are in good shape but don't want to make a day of it then going down the South Kaibab to the first bathrooms is a good one. The South Kaibab will take you all the way to Phantom ranch which is about 7 miles down. To the bathrooms is 1.5 miles one way.

The other one I know of is the Bright Angel trail. It also goes to Phantom Ranch in 8 or 9 miles, it is flatter thanks to more switchbacks.

Hope that helps

Roger Nusbaum said...

South Kaibab not East Kaibab

Anonymous said...

I refuse to participate in the recession.

After cashing a wallet full of rent checks and practicing some Weber and Mozart on the clarinet, I smoked a Cuban Partagas on the porch overlooking our pond and then commenced to make a seafood boil (lots of Old Bay) with shrimp off the trawler, sweet corn, homemade brats,fresh baby red potatos from the neighnor's farm. fresh sauteed blue lake beans, a warm crusty baguette and a cold...Pabst Blue Ribbon!Chocolate pralines for desert.

Four guests for dinner from Ohio, Florida and NC plus a daughter in tracsit to the Pentagon and our at-home family.

A beautiful day..... achieved by living beneath our means for many years.

Damn, I missed Obama's speech.

Anonymous said...

fantastic post Roger. I am 48, and my generation for the most part got confused when it came to needs vs wants.

I still think that 2000 was the kick in the teeth for many, as the index fund craze sent many people over the cliff, as the S&P 500 was riddled with ALOT of 30x companies.
I think Bogle got a free pass (and still does)on this strategy, as it ignored valuation.

An investor with an eye towards value, a decent weighting in international and the discipline to keep investing did OK this past decade.

I'm actually pretty excited about the opportunities for investing today. Great valuation, yields, buybacks and prices. I'll continue on my plan.

BTW, the worst investing years for me were '98, & '07, both pretty good years for the market and not so good for me.

Stephen Drone said...

VFINX (Vanguard's 500 index) only dropped 9% in 2000. The big drop (22%) was in 2002.

The great thing about the tech crash was that it pushed me toward international investing.

Anonymous said...

We downsized early, mid-fifties, bought cheap boat and went cruising for a few years. Got rid of empty nest too-big house in expensive area. We did not plan it but were just being practical for frugal life.

Then we decided to return to work 2002 to pile up more money so we live very frugally in Bay Area, in a studio, modest, no car, and work hard and save hard, like make own yogurt.

We 'accidentally' missed the big crunch by our early downsize, but we think we live 'well' much culture many foods and some good holidays through our choices.

I think people in the middle class mindset need to re-think things and re-set things before they are re-set by others.

At first it is a bit alarming since you feel you are not 'middle-class' with large credit cards to absorb your excesses, and you are 'dis-illusioning' yourself.

Now we realize and are grateful that we do not have to worry and fret and 'sacrifice' as others do.

I write this as a happy couple, 68 and 71 yo, and I think more discussion of a modest lifestyle such as yours should be encouraged. Too many people are fearful when they should realize that it is a good solution. And a solution that many will arrive at, by one means or another.

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