Wikinvest Wire

Saturday, May 07, 2011

The Big Picture for the Week of May 8, 2011

David Merkel says Most People Are Better Off Not Buying Common Stocks On Their Own. This is a multi-dimensional conversation. If we are talking about all market participants which includes 401k participants who would otherwise have no interest in investing then of course David is correct. But this is less clear for an investor so interested in investing that he knows who David is and reads his posts (not a shot at all, I have very good friends with zero interest in markets who have no idea about the blogging part of my life). Someone with that level of interest is more likely able to select individual stocks.

I'll circle back to the Fishing Industry ETF (FISN), by the way I got a good teasing from Josh Brown about this fund. When I first mentioned fishery stocks there was a frequent commenter who knew these companies in tremendous detail, she seemed to have total recall on fluctuations on hatchery production levels. If you have that level of interest in some niche then chances are you can make an informed decision about what stocks to buy in that niche.

Depending on the time you spend there could be several niches that you can make informed decisions about individual stocks to buy. The number of individual stocks to own varies from person to person with zero being perfectly acceptable. Realistically for someone who is at least moderately interested, with average analytical skill or experience could handle three or four individual stocks mixed into a fund portfolio.

Part of this has to be some self awareness as to interest, time available, ability and tolerance for volatility. You probably don't need to visit seven or eight production facilities to decide to buy Proctor & Gamble (PG), to pick a name we do not own, and by the same token you probably should not buy a gold mining company with nothing proven because it has a neat name.

When you take the time to understand what you are capable of you can then build a more suitable portfolio. It doesn't take too much time to understand that fish demand is increasing and to see how well some of the stocks have done in the last couple of years and how hard they got hit during the meltdown to understand the behaviors. If the demand story really interests you and you can find enough information to make an informed decision it would then be very reasonable to pick the ETF over an individual stock in the space. This logic can apply to just about every niche ETF; interesting dynamic leads to valid theme leads to want to invest but preferring not to go in with an individual stock.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Back in the day, my observation was that almost all lower-middle and middle class investors kept their portfolio, as it was, to a few stocks such as General Mills, GM, AT&T,RCA and US Steel. I had an uncle who made the cover of Executive Magazine in 1939 working in commodities at the Merc (he rose from ticker tape runner to VP of John W. Hall in 25 years, not bad for a 9th grade education)by investing in cemetary lots in Chicago.The fact that he and his wife lived in the same Cicero apartment building occupied by Al Capone may have been the inspiration for this investment idea!

I recall that when investments were discussed at family events (over a Strohs Beer), General Mills and Kelloggs always were a favorite because they gave out free samples of products to shareholders along with their dividend. I'll add that my family aunts and uncles (17 of them) reached their 20s the the 1920s and almost all were caught up in the roaring 20s stock boom that went bust.They recovered. Lesson learned. They returned to the game shortly after the WW2 with "bluest blue chips". However, most of their middle class savings were in savings bonds, passbook accounts (free toasters and waffle irons!)and, later cd's. None died rich (except for that uncle mentioned above), but they did not outlive their savings and left assets, not debts,for their children.

Point is, all took inversting in stocks as a committment, and only invested in "safe" and secure industries, whose products they used in their daily lives. To a person, they all resented the fat cats on Wall Street but also understood that a piece of the action, however modest, was in their best interest. They bought stocks as a super long term investment (life) and it served them well for this period of our history.

There must be a lesson in here somewhere in our fast paced, information saturated and charlatan-laden investment world of today. Maybe, it's as simple as knowing your limitations, recognizing that stocks are a part, but certainly not all, options for the investor, and that sleeping well is a good result from only investing in solid, proven securities that are easiet to understand.

So, go ahead and invest!

T

phil4433 said...

22% of FISN is in Japan. With the nuclear accident there, does that concern you?

Roger Nusbaum said...

22% of FISN in Japan?

Toyo Suisan is the largest Japanese company at almost 10% of the fund. They buy fish and process it so they can buy it anywhere. The further they have to go to buy it the more expense they face and so margins might compress.

Maruha Nichiro is a little under 5% of the fund and they do farm fish and so appear to be farm more at risk to lingering problems.

These differences are reflected in the respective performances since the quake. Toyo Suisan is flat (and had almost no reaction in March) and Maruha is down 22%.

While I'd rather the Japanese exposure be less for bigger picture reasons I do not think it creates a deathblow to the concept, far from it. If the theme plays out the way I think then I would expect the 22% to shrink relative to the fund.

Max said...

Anon 2:34 You better check your data again. The latest Gallup poll of 4/21/11 shows that 54% of all Americans own equities. Here's the link:

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2011/04/gallup-poll-percent-of-americans-owning.html

Anonymous said...

You mention David M's comment about how individuals ought not invest. I'm wondering if a bloggers editing service wouldn't be a good thing. Seems to me that bloggers work too much alone and as a result, write occasional bloopers that they wish they could retract. Few if any bloggers will retract after the fact, rather they try to back track or soften or ameliorate... Of course, most content is hardly worth the effort of editing, but on some occasions, a blogger might want some fast feedback on an "editorial" before posting so as to maintain a hard won reputation. What do you think?

Proud Member Of