Wikinvest Wire

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

There Is No Single Best Way To Succeed

A couple of days ago I wrote a post debunking (or trying to anyway) some of the concepts put forth by Larry Swedroe in an interview with Seeking Alpha. I looked back at that interview yesterday to see what might be there in the way of comments. There were over 130 when I last looked. The comments were a mix of pro-passive and anti-passive along with several replies from Swedroe.

Scanning through the comments was a great reminder that there are many different ways to construct a portfolio and have success versus whatever the objective might be. I think the objective for most people is really about having enough money when they need it, but I realize not everyone can look at it that way.

The original Swedroe article seemed to imply there is only one way to get it done which intuitively cannot be. Indexing can work but there are plenty active managers with long track records of beating the market. People trade their way to success (where success is having enough when they need it) while others buy and hold their way to success. Within trading there are countless ways to succeed like selling on strength versus selling on weakness along with countless other choices.

This is not to say that any type of investor can't get better at what they do but it is encouraging for those willing/able to put the time in to figure out their best way and devote time to improving can have success even if they are not the next Peter Lynch. A proper savings rate doesn't hurt either. The key takeaway is putting in the time necessary to figure out what is best for you and how to improve as time goes in order to give yourself the best chance for success.

On a somewhat related note Felix Salmon had a post where he reviewed Market Riders which is a sight that helps people with rebalancing their portfolios. In the post was the following quote from Felix; "One of the reasons that individual investment returns nearly always lag the market as a whole is simple laziness."

This is a provocative comment. Obviously this is true to some degree, the question is to what degree? There is no limit to the types of behaviors that inhibit portfolio success and certainly laziness is one of them. The context of lazy in the article was just taking the time to rebalance but it can also apply to many other aspects of investing including saving money. In another aspect of my life I like to say that not going to the gym is the easiest thing in the world. Not saving money might be just as easy.

While doing the requisite work may not be easy it is relatively easy to recognize when we are being lazy and it is a behavior that is easier to fix than flaws with various parts of the analytical process.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

You are correct that there are many things that impair portfolio performance other than laziness. In many cases it's fear or ignorance. I have a good friend who invariably sells everything near every bottom only to buy back later, much higher.

My own greatest problem has been hubris. It brought me low in the tech crash and hurt me again in 2008 because I was so sure I had things figured out and was so over weight, and so sure of myself, first in tech then in energy.

Now I keep asking myself "what if I'm wrong about this?". I do believe I've learned something along the way about overconfidence and diversification. In fact, I'm proud of it. I hope not too proud, or too sure I've got it right.

WH said...

Confusing luck with skill is another behaviour that can inhibit active portfolio success.

Stephen Drone said...

To be fair, you could switch the words "luck" and "skill" and it would still be true.

Anonymous said...

Luck would be preferred to skill going forward IMO

SEG

Anonymous said...

I'm planning on holding very long term. I don't want to miss huge up periods because I'm worried about the future, so I'll buy/drip into well-managed funds, some index trackers and the odd REIT/commodity ETF (for fun) and keep my fingers crossed.

Next up; collectibles, but I don't see bottles of J&B becoming collectors' items just yet.

70zboy said...

I enjoyed Swedroe's book, but after reading this interview I have a much less favorable opinion. He goes too far in pumping DFA's magical constant rebalaning and discredits Arnott's indexes as "nothing there". Well, by doing some 3-5 yr. comparing with DFA, RAFI (Arnott's fundamental indexes), Wisdom Tree (Value tilted ETF's) and some of Vangaurd's cap indexes, DFA really fails to stand out. Shouldn't their techniques have added some value over this volatile time period? After having to pay an advisor to access DFA funds it is hard to see an investment benefit.

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