Wikinvest Wire

Sunday, March 06, 2011

Sunday Morning Coffee

Just a few odds and ends this morning as I've got an incredibly busy week coming.

First up is from a profile in Barron's of a fund called the Goldman Sachs Technology Tollkeeper (GITAX). Here is a quote from one of the managers.

"We would rather own the tollkeeper than the bridge builder," says portfolio-manager Scott Kolar, 38. "Even if traffic doesn't grow, it can raise the price. That allows it to grow year after year without deploying more capital."


This line of thinking applies to actual toll road companies. This is a niche I've been interested in for several years now but unfortunately the space is too thinly traded for us to do any across the board activity. I own one of the Chinese toll road companies for a couple of clients and in one of my IRAs. These stocks are very capable of going down but the ones I've looked at seem to have steady businesses.

As far as the fund itself it is an actively managed fund with a very narrow mandate. This type of fund can work in a narrow based portfolio. GITAX will always be a proxy for some specific niche in the tech sector as opposed to a broadly managed fund which might be heavy in tech today but six months from now might own no tech, having loaded up on something else creating an unintended lopsided bet in a portfolio. To be clear I am not recommending the fund just pointing it out as an example of something I've talked about before.

Barron's also had an interview with Carson Block from Muddy Waters Research. If the name is unfamiliar he has made a name for himself calling shenanigans on a few Chinese companies that are reverse mergers. One example is a company called China Media Express Holdings (CCME). The company has an installed base of TV monitors installed on city buses and sells advertising on those monitors. Read the article but essentially not too many people in China know the company or have seen the monitors on the buses. Oops.

The story with many of these companies sounds great but these are much dicier than regular Chinese companies. You may think regular Chinese companies are unreasonably dicey, some folks do, I am not that worried, but I am telling you the reverse mergers are dicier still.

Lastly James Altucher had a post on his blog about living longer that was a long list of dos and don'ts with some interesting things that I had not thought of before. Included in the list was don't drink soda which I've mentioned occasionally for years now. It was a long post, well worth reading, but I would say the focus was preventative. Things like stress, poor diet and bad habits cause all sorts of problems for people and so James explored ways to minimize or eliminate these things from our lives. He gave an interesting example that captures the essence of column; if you knew you were going to die on December 15, 2020 in Springfield, IL you'd probably make sure you weren't in Springfield on December 15, 2020.

I am very big on reducing or eliminating stress. We've structured our life to avoid several different types of stress. Not having to deal with daily commuter traffic removes a lot of stress and more related to the topic of this web site living well below your means reduces many types of financial stress. You don't have to worry about large debt payments when you don't have debt. You don't have to worry about a large mortgage payment if you don't have a large mortgage and so on.

I would add a couple of things to James' to do list. One would be to get involved volunteering for something. This can give much more meaning to life and ideally would be a stress reliever from other things in your life (like your 9-5). The other thing would be to get a dog or two; they are great companions and sources for both humor and stress relief.

9 comments:

crm said...

Roger,

You need to do some more reading on Carson Block. Try Rick Pearson's discussion of their visit to ONP (thestreet.com)

Also you need to visit CCME-INFO.Xanga.com and see all the buses, advertisers etc. Deloitte are their auditors.

You are better than this. Being an unwitting voice for shorts in this conspiracy does you no credit.

Lee said...

Here's the link that crm referred to.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10797742/orient-paper-story-behind-fraud-report.html

ONP were subsequently cleared of MW's accusations but shorts made their money.

4 weeks ago the story was that CCME didn't exist to enable the shorts to exit from RegSho. Then a bus spreadsheet prepared on Carson's wife's copy of Excel said there were fewer buses than CCME claimed. Now (Herb Greenberg) says Carson was duped.

Check out the shorting and put buying in the day or two leading up to Carson's and Andrew Left's articles.

When Deloitte sign off on 10K (as they did last year) in a couple of weeks we'll know the truth.

Anonymous said...

Regarding living longer and doing the right thing well my parents both passed away at the age of 47. Now I a past 50. So I am living longer. The same illness have come up since no one can do anything about your DNA. But I have learned that herbal solutions are more effective with less side effects. Hope to prolong my life for about 20 years from my the expected survival age.
Best - Jeff from Milan, Italy

Jack said...

Re: GITAX : What do you suppose they mean by " Tollkeeper"? Would that be ATT,etc.,or have I again missed it completely?

Jack

Roger Nusbaum said...

Jack, in the article they use a toll road analogy saying they would rather own the company that operates the bridge not the company that builds it. they apply this to tech stocks.

WH said...

Thanks for providing the link to James Altucher. I particularly liked the comments about sleep. I come from a family of nappers and there seems to be a positve correlation with longevity and napping. Maybe this is some kind of behavior bias to rationalize a daily catnap. Oh well, nap time!

Anonymous said...

As with evry other investment, it is a matter of price. Regarding tollroads, unless they are an exclusive, faster franchise to major destinations, beware.

MacQuarie Infrastructure made news several years ago doing a deal for a Chicago area tollroad, The Chicago Skyway.

As a native Chicagoan visiting family and doing a little business driving from northern Ohio, I rarely took the Skyway because free interstates were available. Plus, the Skyway was a poorly conceived, dated roadway that frequently backed up big time near the Dan Ryan.

MacQuarie grossly overpaid for the property, imo. The results I have glossed over appear to confirm my view.

T

Roger Nusbaum said...

i am familiar w/Macquarie's foray into the US. the dynamics with the Chinese companies is different, net-net they might be just as bad (i obviously don't think so) but the stories are much different.

Anonymous said...

"If you knew you were going to die on December 15, 2020, in Springfield, IL you'd probably make sure you weren't in Springfield, IL on December 15, 2020."
This brings to mind "The Appointment in Samarra" by M. Somerset Maugham. It's good to do what you can but you won't miss your appointment.

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