Wikinvest Wire

Friday, July 02, 2010

Exchange Traded Baskets?

The other day IndexUniverse had a post about a newly filed for fund from Van Eck that will target minor metals. At first glance this sounds interesting. If the stocks that will be targeted can somehow blend together in such a way as to differentiate from ETFs that cover, what, major metals then it could gain traction.

In that article I noticed that the index provider will be Structured Solutions AG which is the same index provider for the GlobalX China sector ETFs. I found Structured Solutions' website and their list of indexes they have and Sweet Fancy Moses do they have a lot of interesting things most of which will never get made into funds.

But to the title of this post, as I was looking at some of the indexes I was reminded of a post from a long time ago, that I was not able to find, about a possible next step in the exchange traded product world. Some of the indexes created by Structured Solutions do not have enough components to meet diversification rules to be an ETF but perhaps a new product that I might call an exchange traded basket could be structured to bypass the concentration issue.

While a fund that holds seven stocks will frequently be less risky than holding one stock maybe there could be some sort of options paperwork-like screening before people would be allowed to buy the ETBs but to be clear I am talking baskets of stocks.

For example the Solactive Sports Betting Total Return Index has seven holdings, four of which are target at 20% of the index. William Hill PLC is of the four targeted at 20%, it averages more than three million shares traded per day in London so it is not the most obscure company in the world and sports betting would be part of the discretionary sector so it is not inconceivable that someone would want to buy the stock. YTD it has done slightly better than the FTSE 100, been more volatile than that index and had a very low correlation. That combo clearly appeals to someone, hence the decent volume.

Some people might prefer to buy a small basket of these stocks instead of just one but there are not enough stocks to fill out an ETP as we think of them so the basket idea could work here.

Structured Solutions has indexes for timber, forestry (yes those are two different products), fertilizer, N-11 Infrastructure, Croatia, rare earth elements and so on. I did not see one for global equity exchanges but that would be an interesting one too.

I'm sure someone will say how ridiculous these are but for people willing to use individual stocks or narrow based ETF these indexes fit right in with core and explore. For example the idea of putting most of a portfolio's industrial sector allocation into something like the Industrial Sector SPDR (XLI) and a small portion into something like the N-11 Infrastructure ETB (assumes the index is very heavy in industrial stocks which I am not certain of) is not insanity. Would you buy a water ETF (we own one)? Well water is simply a different theme than N-11 Infrastructure within the same sector and at times water will do better but at other times the N-11 Infrastructure would do better even if there were only nine stocks in that particular N-11 index.

If you forget what N-11 is you can click here for more information.

Again it is very unlikely that too many people would own a lot of these, if they existed, but at some point there will be some rather obscure theme that will interest you that will have very few alternatives and having a fund among the choices, even if it only holds nine things, instead of a stock will be preferable.

There is another element to this discussion for people who do pick stocks that is worth mentioning. In looking at these indexes I stumbled across a company called Pretoria Portland Cement which has an ADR with ticker PPCYY.

I'd never heard of it but it makes cement in eight locations in South Africa and also has operations in a couple of other countries. It is a small company with only a 1% weight in the iShares South Africa ETF (EZA). It does not appear to be a reverse merger completed last month as financial records on the company website go back to 2000. The company has been profitable for a long time, in terms of volatility the ADR appears to trade inline with EZA and based on its last dividend (per Pinksheets.com) it yields 5.8% versus 1.8% for EZA.

As first impressions go that is enough for me to want to follow it and really study it should I ever decide to add South Africa across the board although liquidity might be an issue with that one. I'm sure that if EG Shares ever lists a South Africa Infrastructure ETF that Pretoria Portland Cement would be a large holding.

These obscure indexes and funds have all sorts of interesting companies to learn about which is very useful for people willing to buy individual stocks.

I believe the picture could best be described as "a dry heave set to music."

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

I may eventually be proven wrong, but I remain bullish as this still looks like a correction from my perspective. Will be traveling so I will post when I get back.

winslow said...

Roger
It appears you like ETF's, but to me these instruments have commoditized stocks. When the big institutions and hedge funds decide to sell their ETF's, any individual stock in the ETF will fall dramatically even though it may have good fundamentals. I also believe the double and triple short ETF's should be banned. They are absolutely worthless for long-term investors, even if these investors have a negative inclination on the market.

We need to get the markets back in control of longer-term outlooks. Many younger individuals are so afraid of this rigged market, we may have changed the stock market perception permanently.

Roger Nusbaum said...

When the big institutions and hedge funds decide to sell their ETF's, any individual stock in the ETF will fall dramatically

If you use individual stocks I would venture to say that 90% of them are in at least one ETF and if you have any big cap individual stocks then they are in dozens of different ETFs.

All of the assets total in ETFs is about $1 trillion give or take and some of that is in GLD ($50 billion I think), bond ETFs and the levered funds so less than that $1 trillion actually own stocks which is a very small fraction of the total US market cap.

In that light some sort of simultaneous selling could easily put downward pressure but not to the magnitude I think you have in mind.

as far as banning anything, you do realize that 2X was available back into the mid 1990s via traditional mutual funds?

Anonymous said...

I'd much rather see limitations placed on HFT than on ETFs (etc). The individual is truly at the mercy of those jokers, and the prgrams that they write.

Anonymous said...

Glad that week is over...now for July and the Tour de France...got any insight on that? Entering your own team on versus?

Roger Nusbaum said...

like many people my heart says Lance, my head says alberto contador.

other than Vinocurov (not attempting to spell it correctly) whom i cannot believe is back, VS says Astana doesn't have much of a team which means AC has to do it for himself.

either way i am pretty excited about it.

Anonymous said...

AC's team was gutted when RSH was established...and with a race this long he may not win...he had better watch out for Andy Schleck with his brother's dedicated support he has a good shot. But LA will be who I'm shouting for at the finsish line.

Enjoy.

Anonymous said...

Roger,

Again, please no tour de france updates during the day. I watch it at night like it was live and I would hate to avoid your blog for a month.

Thanks,

A crazy loyal reader

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