Interestingly the 200 DMA for the SPX seems like it has been significant for the last few weeks. After going below it in May the index had a difficult time punching through and for now it seems like it is relevant support.As I say that of course that probably now means it will knife through like it wasn't even there but for the time being the market seems to have calmed down. I've been saying for a while that I think the best long term outcome from here for the foreseeable future would be a very boring tape.
The stats about the largest up days in stock market history having mostly occurred during bear markets belies the extent to which emotion, IE panic, is unhealthy for the market.
GlobalX should be coming out with a mid cap Brazil ETF that will have ticker symbol BRAZ. Similar to the Market Vectors Brazil Small Cap ETF (BRF) it is targeting the story on the ground in Brazil. Clearly the middle class ascension along with the World Cup and Olympics create tailwinds for the country as an investment destination.
In the stuff that GlobalX emailed to me about BRAZ was some limited information about a couple Brazil sector funds, along the lines of of their China sector ETFs, they have filed for. Personally I think the narrow access is better than most broad based country funds. A fund like iShares Belgium (EWK) can be difficult to incorporate into a portfolio built at the sector level given its 35% weight in staples and 28% in financials. Obviously a sector fund makes precise portfolio construction easier to do. There are some "broad" country funds that are so concentrated that they might as well be sector funds; iShares Peru (EPU) comes to mind. BTW one client of ours with a specific mandate owns that one.
Continuing the thought, a Norwegian energy ETF (does not exist), a Singaporean financial ETF (iShares Singapore EWS practically is a financial fund) and EPU for materials and you can see where I am going; balancing the sector weights becomes very easy to do.
So are there any better uniforms at the Wold Cup than the Ivory Coast's orange creamsicle jobs? They would look great with Kevin Durant's shoes.
The second picture is of my newly completed office. I've got a comfy metal folding chair to sit in, some insulation batts to sleep on and all the high tech gadgetry I could ever need; truly the lap of luxury.Actually Joellyn is getting progressively busier with her animal rescue work and after a one year hiatus as assistant fire chief I have the job again and due to some truly ludicrous antics over the last year or two the job entails many more phone calls than in the previous four years I had the job. One day I'll tell the tale but for now--many phone calls fixing things.
The task of responding to a fire or a medical is still very enjoyable which is why I do it. Last Monday we had a smoke call, got to take out a couple of trucks and go for a little hike; fortunately no fire.
3 comments:
Looks confy!
Jeff from Milan, Italy
A mid-cap fund for Brazil? The "small cap" BRF's biggest holding, Lojas Rennar, has a cap of $5.8 B, so there's clearly some overlap here.
EWZ's overweight to materials/commodity stocks is a problem (or a feature), but rather than carve the market up into "cap"-defined slices, it would be better to balance the fund by picking the top 30-40 stocks and equal-weighting them. This would give the small- and mid- cap companies good exposure, adn naturally balance the sectors better. Why doesn't someone do that, instead of these silly redundant and/or useless niches? JMHO.
You frequently write about farmland investing and this quote from today's WSJ caught my eye.
"By acquiring and renting out high-quality acreage, investors can book a 3% to 5% annual return from rental income and, over time, might rack up an additional 5% or so per year in appreciation, says R. Dennis Moon, managing director of specialty asset management at U.S. Trust, a unit of Bank of America Corp."
IMO farmland returns are not much different than good dividend paying stocks, but with much less liquidity and the possibility big management headaches. Of course, returns could be much, much different if you choose to farm the land yourself. From my experience, I agree with the author's numbers. I would say potential unintended consequences outweight any potential diversification benefit. I would also stress the author's use of the word "might" in describing price appreciation. I would put heavy emphasis on that word.
Hugely profitable ag operations are almost always closely held and have no reason to change their capital structure.
The article is not that good, full story here: http://bit.ly/ai0VRq
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