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13 comments:
It is more likely a cyclical bull market than a secular bull market, but I am not going to close my mind to potential out comes with the fed behaving the way it is.
I still do not understand how people can predict when the top of this market will occur. I do not expect it soon, and simply do not see an end now. Yes their are numerous bad scenarios out there, but I expect the central bankers to slay these problems one way or another. The fed can create a trillion dollars with a few clicks of a keyboard if they choose to and right now I think that would be their choice.
SEG
An opinion. I think Bernanke, once re-confirmed, will start tightening and withdrawing liquidity more aggressively. Another opinion, I think he is a smart man, a student of the Great Depression, and he just may pull it off; "it" being withdrawing monetary stimulus in a responsible manner causes neither a double dip nor unacceptable inflation. Or, maybe that's just wishful thinking.
Anon 6:54
Once reconfirmed the Fed will again have the independence it needs to do its job, but helicopter Ben also will have the independence to print when needed.
I do not care if your scenario happens as the market would roll over, but even then it will not happen quickly. But, Ben wants to inflate so I do not see him killing monetary expansion as it is absolutely required from his perspective.
I agree that some inflation is needed. I also am in the deflationary camp and believe they will eventually fail. But, before they fail I expect the markets to go higher.
SEG
Roger,
I think that you have done a great job.
Seg,
no one knows where the top will be. But, since june, I had my eyes on S&P 1166. But have to admit that things look good. However, some of my best trades lately have been on the short side; am very nervous doing it, too. In 2007 the market was overvalued, march2009 the market became extremely undervalue and now it is fair value. There is no rule where the market will be in 2010-11, can go again to undervalue before we go into secular bull market. 2000 was even more overvalued than 2007. We may go up a little more to touching overvalue and then slam down to undervalue. We shall see.
Best,
Jeff from Milan, Italy
Great video and congrats on your performance, Roger, thank you. I hope enough of your readers are around this weekend to benefit.
Thanks for the video Roger, excellent performance for 2008-09. Best wishes to you for 2010.
Really appreciate all the work you put into your blog.
David
Performance in the teens is very good if you weren't down a lot and that pretty much describes my strategic portfolio: Down about 9% at the March lows but up about 21% since then so total, risk adjusted real return was positive over the one and two-year cycle and somewhat better than average market return over three-years but with only one third the volatility (beta .34); for money I "can't afford to lose" that remains the point of the exercise.
Tactical accounts did much better not surprisingly - it really paid to be nimble in this environment (doh!): Main account nearly doubled YoY with shorts not doing as well as longs overall but with losses in both categories to catalog in my trading notebook: Learning sell discipline is as important as buy discipline, probably even more so since selling tends to be a tougher decision than buying for most folks, me included.
For example, discipline said to sell F as it approached 10 but I was so pleased with the trade I just couldn't resist keeping a block to see if an American car manufacturer could cut the mustard (and reach 10-bagger territory at 15) - quantitative and technical metrics (e.g., http://tinyurl.com/yjg5ug3 ) say the chance this is seriously stupid at the moment is fairly high but there it is. Maybe I'll just transfer the remaining F to my Strategic portfolio and call it quits: I have DRP accounts going back more than twenty years in there including JCI so it's not like this would be really weird even though if you told me I would ever have a long-term holding in a car manufacturer I would have told you to pass over whatever you were drinking and leave me alone.
one point I did not around to making in the video which important in many aspects of life is that no matter how good or bad anyone is they will hopefully improve in the future. I believe we all learned some things from this event (this decade really) while hopefully holding on to what happened in the previous decade. both types of results (one great and one lousy can repeat again in the future.
I certainly am pleased but hope to improve in the next cycle.
Not one person that I have spoken to, has a positive fundamental outlook for the U.S. over the next 10-15 years. This is a tremendous difference from the past when I usually heard "we can work this out" and "there is tremendous potential".
From my observations: the U.S debt load is enormous and growing, unemployment is unlikely to decrease dramatically, medicare is on the brink of insolvency, social security cannot be maintained, a "war" needs billions and trillions of $, the infrastructure is not being updated across the country, the average weekly wage with regards to inflation is less now than in the 60's, our government seems incapable of making the hard but correct decisions.
Probably the only positive is that the U.S is not the worse developed country with these negatives.
This is definitely the hardest investment climate I have ever encountered.
Roger,
Thanks for the nice presentation on your 2009 performance.
jb
Thanks for the update and all your efforts. I find your info good practical, thought provoking stuff.
- The video mentions 75/50 goal. I had not heard that phrase before, but it does a nice job of defining my goal. The video mentioned a "source" on the 75/50 but I could not find that info. Can you restate that source here...thanks
the term comes from John Serrapere. Go to Indexuniverse.com and search for his articles. i think he writes one or two a quarter for them.
Great to have the videos again. It is refreshing to hear a calm voice.
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