The Norway Trade
Enough from me about Norway, above is another take.
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10 comments:
You seem to have become a Rolfe Winkler reader: He's one of those I like to argue with (figuratively speaking) because I usually come out smarter at the end when pursuing his lead even when I remain unpersuaded by his analysis; an utterly different experience than trying to pursue a line of reasoning with someone ignorant of the subject (but often deluded they understand it) or unable to get past cliche and talking points.
In this case I agree: I've been playing gold, miners and the dollar tactically with trailing stops and no strategic commitment; in the presence of a significant $USD carry trade in an environment where any exogenous event causes a flight to $USD I could hardly persuade myself to do otherwise.
IAC Norway is one of those relatively rare cases where a developed, politically stable country becomes resource 'wealthier' and profits greatly thereby. Pity its not as easy to invest there as Australia but we do what we can.
Developing/emerging countries w/ significant resources generally tend to suffer economically and politically as they are developed which is also a pity but its too strong a pattern to ignore so I do not overweigh resource wealth WRT emerging markets during country analysis.
Seeking your inputs: I looked at PLND etf. The difference between the bid and ask price for the ETF was more than $ 1 at about 2.15 pm. Why is the spread so big?
Anonymous.
the spread may have just been one of those things or an ongoing problem. when I looked the spread was a dime and then widened out to $0.24.
So far the average volume is 9000 shares. If the primary market is ARCA then there is no specialist and so no one person ensuring an orderly market as I understand it. Not sure if that means only natural buyers and sellers but in the sort of a case if you are interested in holding it (as opposed to a fast trade) you could try a limit in the middle and just wait.
Many thanks Roger. As always you give a well thought out reply. As you have said, the spread has narrowed. Thanks again.
Roger, you've spoken many times about equities in Norway. Have you found a way to access soveriegn debt?
Thanks,
Sam
i have written about and disclosed owning short term Norwegian sovereign many times in the last few years. I had paper mature in May in 2009 that I then immediately replaced with paper due in 2011. Minimum order size at Schwab is $100,000 but buying for a bunch of clients all at once makes the $100k min pretty small. I own the same paper as our clients do. We also own Australian short term debt jsut about across the board.
Hi Roger,
I like Norway a lot as well - a unique niche due to the oil exposure.
Curious what rates you get on the 'sovereign debt' and what the 'symbols' et al are for this sort of product. I am new to this area so I don't know how its sorted (I assume by year like a UST)
Thanks
p.s. norway etf will finally be arriving
http://www.globalxfunds.com/news/News_InternationalETFsInnovativeLineup.pdf
I just wish they'd come out with a wisdom tree currency etf as well.
link did not work
go here
8th story from top
http://www.globalxfunds.com/News.aspx
Mark,
There is no symbol, it trades by its cusip number. There are very few issues to choose from because they have so little debt. The yields are low of course but better than the US but the yield is not necessarily the priority. If you want more yield there is always Australia which we also own.
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