Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: Decidedly Speculative - December 14, 2009
Based on this week's post we can only infer that he had a bad weekend (a little humor in light of the dark outlook in the post).
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9 comments:
I wish John would turn his considerable analytical prowess to more granular issues. If the market, which he defines as one equity index in one country, is overvalued, where then are the opportunities? Surely there are asset classes, market caps, countries, and themes that offer value for the diversified investor.
Can you please define ETP? I can't find the term in Investopedia
Good point, Anon 7:10. Also, Roger, how does Hussman's long-term predictions track record compare to other financial/fund managers? Thanks.
ETP means exchange traded product.
I don't have an exact answer on his predictions. He started is fund close to the peak in the tech bubble with the idea of offering a fund that would smooth out the ride (that is how I would say it) and the fund has lived up to that billing. He has expressed frustration at lagging the rally since March but has not indicated he would change the methodology.
Hussman was very negative for a long time before I sold out in 2007. I think he is very intelligent and knowledgeable person, but is overlooking the markets have been overvalued for extended periods since 1995. I do not see reasons to turn bearish anytime soon, which is not to say we will not eventually have a correction sometime in the future. Of course you can always predict corrections will come - eventually.
This Keynesian silliness is rampant with the president and Congress. As expressed last week when the stimulus ends the jobs go away but the government debt is still there - to bankrupt our nation and our children I might add.
This illusion of Keynesian economics did not get us out of the depression of the 1930's (WWII ended the depression) and has not solved Japans problems even though they now owe 180% of GDP and it is increasing. The current nonsense will not solve any of our economic problems, but I expect this bull market to be extended for a while.
Should the government increase the debt? NO!!! Will they? Yes.
What the government is doing is a kin to burning you expensive furniture to heat your home. To the extent it is necessary to survive (like unemployment insurance and some other spending) burning your furniture to survive makes sense. But, when you burn lots of furniture just to be comfy as opposed to survive (wasteful bridges to no where and most other government spending) then you are simply acting stupid and bankrupting your future.
SEG
Amen SEG.
I understanding spending to get us out of an economic malaise, but the stimulus bill was anything but......
The new spending bill is laughable for tightening-up spending. The kids in the candy store are evident.
I remember Obama saying befor the election he will look at each item individually and cut where necessary. Nothing is being cut.
Hussman is so 2008.
Hussman is a fundamental values investor and when the values aren't there all he can do is hedge and kvetch.
And folks like SEG should stop talking as if they know what is going on: Governments captured by corporations and plutocrats use whatever excuse works to give their patrons what they want, whether they mouth supply side Lafferisms or some made-up version of Keynes while doing it has nothing to do with anything.
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