A caller made the good point that government stimulus for jobs is a bad use of money, once the stimulus is gone, so is the job. The caller didn’t finish the point: after the stimulus and job are gone, the debt is still there.
In the darkness of our home this week I started to read When Giants Fall by Michael Panzner, I gave up on it after the introduction for being, in my opinion, over the top pessimistic. In there in talking about empires falling he mentioned Rome. Comparing the US in the 21st century to the fall of Rome loses it for me because one of the reasons the US is at the top. Many other countries contributed to putting the US on top and they contribute still to keeping us there. This is a dynamic that did not exist when the Roman empire was conquering the world.
This does not change my opinion in the least about the US being less attractive as an investment destination and my wanting to have continually less US exposure, a path embarked upon several years ago. And course the US staying at the top may be changing.
Back to the quote from Rolfe's post. Whatever you think about the effectiveness of what has been done so far and whatever might occur in the near future in the name of stimulus; afterward the debt will still be there. There will be growth that offsets some portion of the debt, this is always the case so debating whether there will be growth to bail out some of the debt is useless because there will be some. However how much growth offset we get is up for debate and for now I lean low, meaning I don't think any growth offset will be meaningful.
The willingness to borrow and spend, despite the extent to which borrowing and spending got us into this mess (this is a line of thought Jimmy Rogers had spoke of many times), seems limitless. There is something to the idea of being willing to go into debt to try to solve the problem but of course the debt was already massive.
I have no idea if I can figure this all out ahead of time but I wouldn't bet on it and more importantly I am not betting client money that I can. This means, repeat theme, slowly adding more foreign.