I found this article from Bloomberg with news of the latest filing dated March 31, 2009 but no link to the actual 13f. Shockingly I was able to find it here and you can compare it to the previous filing from December 31, 2008 here.
The Bloomberg article notes that HMC increased its exposure to China, Brazil and Mexico. Mexico is odd as it seems as though Mexico has become unpopular due to declines in production from the Cantarell Field. From the March low iShares Mexico (EWW) is up about the same as iShares Emerging (EEM) but EWW was a drag for the first quarter.
In the course of buying and selling the HMC apparently bought 1.47 million shares of News Corp (NWS). Generally speaking media stocks tend to be later cycle because advertisers are not the first ones in the pool coming out of a recession. Additionally with so many newspapers closing down there would seem to be very little reason to buy News Corp here. Of course it is easy to second guess someone else.
Not mentioned in the Bloomberg piece is that HMC added some exposure to one of my favorite destinations; Chile. It added 2106 shares of what the filing listed as MSCI Chile Index Fund which I presume is the iShares product that has ticker ECH. It also bought 4100 shares of Santander de Chile (SAN) which I own for clients and 1100 shares Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM).
I've been writing about Chile since early 2005. The story is simple, the country has a lot of copper and the world needs a lot of copper. Fiscally they run a tight ship. The social security equivalent is done via individual accounts and participation is mandatory for people who are on payrolls which creates a constant source of demand for equities.
If the theme of US based investors having to buy foreign equities comes true (I believe it will) then I think Chilean equities would be a big beneficiary.
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13 comments:
Roger,
a small question(perhaps big), how do you calculate allocation to the differnt emerging market funds?
Thanks,
Jeff from Milan, Italy
Jeff not clear on the question. How do I decide how much to put in to emerging?
As a matter of philosophy i go small with everything. i have never been a 20% in emerging guy. im not even half that now, maybe i will be at some point but i position such that no narrow outcome that i get wrong will bring the portfolio down.
Your portfolio should be 100% foreign in a couple of years?
well i know i will always own a US defense contractor so for me will I ever have 97% foreign?
well there are several US companies that I hope I will be able to hold forever. there are also plenty of US companies that I think are great companies for the long term.
i can certainly see exceeding 50% foreign soon (been writing that since the beginning).
Roger,
that is exactly what I wanted to know. Great articles on greenfaucet. First time I checkes was someone mentioned greenfacet on this blog.
Have a great weekend with Joleen,
Jeff from Milan, Italy
Roger, Any good articles/research sources you can point us to for foreign allocation? You've mentioned underweighting Europe and Japan. Any of the EAFE or EM components you consider overweighting, besides Chile?
thx
Thanks for mentioning one my favorite stocks, SQM! It's also a major producer of lithium for hybrid vehicle batteries.
Roger,
In case you haven't noticed...
Van Eck Market Vectors Brazilian Small Cap (BRF) just started trading.
http://www.vaneck.com/index.cfm?cat=3192&cGroup=ETF&tkr=BRF&LN=3_02&rfl=/brf/homebanner
I tweated about that the other night, plan to do a write up this weekend for TSCM, time permitting.
Hello Roger,
currently I invest with another advisory firm (EF moody). i am not sure if you are familar with this fairly well known author and expert however he shares the inverted yield curve portfolio strategy with. If interested, click on this lonk and scroll down to the 4/5 market commentary on risk management, yield curve, etc...
http://www.efmoody.com/gripes.html
It appears as though JPM and GS will be the first to pay back TARP money. The news broke around 3 p.m. I bought some of each immediately for my Speculative Portfolio. Freedom trumps a strings-attached loan.
T
Anon 9:51
EF Moody is a wealth on financial info and a must read for all bloggers.
Mexico!???
They're about to declare Marijuana legal!
hahahahaha, they'll get rich!
Little known:, Portugal decided the whole illegal drug problem to be too much trouble. They legalized ALL dope, and emptied their expensive jails, and spent a little on the booming rehab clinics.
Brilliant.
Third Worlds have the luxury of observation, hey?...........m
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