Proud Member Of
Random Roger
© 2009 | Gadget Theme Blogger Template
Original WPtheme By Blogger Template | Converted By Gadget Lover
| Distributed by eFree Blogger Help
Original WPtheme By Blogger Template | Converted By Gadget Lover
| Distributed by eFree Blogger Help
9 comments:
BTW, the market is up a lot and my portfolio is even positive for the year :)
I guess this means we are due for a pull back here soon :(
Roger,
With all the money that the FEd has thrown at the system, how can we avoid the inflation problem/ If we assume that within the next 6 - 12 months we will be concerning ourself with inflation as a big problem than why aren't investors buying sectors like energy, materials, commodities, etc to a greater degreethan what they are/ it would seem to me that these sectors may be the ones that lead us out of this bear market and show the biggest returns over the next few years.
I understand that the dollar dropping will and can also fuel this move in these sectors.
thanks,
bwjr
how is it avoided? that is easy. the Fed must know when to ease back out of everything they have done. that answer is obvious. The variable is whether the Fed can do it successfully which of course success here is an incredible long shot.
However problems from this arising in 6-12 months seems too soon; six months anyway.
Hi Roger- interesting post from Geoff Considine back in Feb 09...
http://seekingalpha.com/article/118177-opportunities-in-a-high-correlation-world
Roger, I was wondering if you could comment on two items sort of off topic.
First, the WSJ has an interesting article today about Monte Carlo simulators used in financial planning. The main thrust of the article was that the underlying statistical distribution is normal, that is a bell-shaped curve assigning low probabilities to events like the stock market meltdown we just we through. It seems now new distributions are being incorporated into to models that have fatter tails, that is higher probabilities to extreme events. Any thoughts?
Secondly, interesting tidbit about Oppenheimer Funds opposing Obama's deal with Chrysler. As someone who concerns himself with investing in financial products as opposed to buying pieces of a business, what are your thoughts on mutual fund's/ETF's etc. responsibilities toward corporate governance? I for one believe that if many of the directors were truly independent and not beholding to the board chairman who by the way usually is the CEO we may have avoided some of the nonsense we witnessed in the financial sector. Is your attitude that you're just along for the ride and your position as an owner of a company in the big scheme of things is basically neglible anyway, so why worry about it? Not trying to be disrespectful. Since you frequently mention living below one's means, I would think that the excesses we have witnessed in many of the executive suites must really disturb you.
When will a bond ETF covering Ginnie Mae's come to market?
I agree with Roger's comments, at these levels one should not be in defense mode and hopefully everyone has been increasing their long exposure from SP 667 on up and are now waiting for the 200DMA. If you wait for the 200DMA one will miss a 300 point move!
For those of you anticipating dow 5000 or spx 500 do not hold your breath. IMO, you are not factoring inflation into the charts. I am convinced the lows are in and we fell to far too fast...I see the dow eventually hitting 10000 in 2010 and the spx to 1100. There will be corrections along the way.
If this market can hit SP900-930 in the next few weeks, it will mark a very serious point of resistance as the Wave 5 would have concluded. I’m strongly recommending that long term holders of stocks at least take out put protection over the next few weeks to prepare for a long, rough summer!
Putting on my turban and opening the envelope from a canning jar on Funk & Wagnalls back porch...
PIMCO
What other large player that has one fund in registration. Then Roger starts talking treasuries. Gee, who else. ;->
Post a Comment