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7 comments:
So if you have been partially invested all along, what do you mean when you say you will re-equitized once the 200 DMA signal triggers? Can you tell us you basic portfolio breakdown, how much stocks/bonds/cash? For example
Stocks Bonds Cash
qtr 3 2007 100% 0% 0%
qtr 4 2008 50% 0% 50%
qtr 1 2009 25% 10% 65%
etc.
I would like to make a comparison between what you do and a 50/50 buy and hold portfolio. Perhaps there is a website with your results? Thank you in advance
Thanks, Roger, for the Australia discussion. I've been thinking about getting into the Aussie dollar...I like their role supplying Asia with raw materials. But the "over-brokered" statement makes me wonder if they're exposed to a lot of the same downside as the USA. How do you think the AUD will hold up against the USD in the event Australia starts growing their national debt to stimulate their economy?
By the way, I'm the loon who commented recently about buy Swiss francs. Lately I've been accumulating some francs, gold, and silver. Even if these "doomsday" investments don't end up paying off (I honestly hope they don't), they've given me some peace of mind I didn't have before when my finances were totally in dollar-based assets. For that alone it's worth it.
Always look forward to checking your blog. Thanks.
Roger- came across this link from the BP, thought you may be interested.
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/incredibly-shrinking-market-liquidity.html
I posted the question on the definition of a bear/bull market last week. Thanks for taking the time to respond.
The fact that it takes a fairly long, and not overly concise explanation, seems to prove my main point. Overall, the terms don't seem to provide much insight and even worse could just seem to add confusion and emotion for the "average" investor.
requitize means trying to have the portfolio move with the market or even be more volatile than the market. at certain points this makes sense and certain points not. getting into percentages in print becomes an issue of advertising. check the quarterly end videos for numbers
10:43, you are right about not be easy in the way I think you mean it. what is easy is diversified portfolio, save a lot of money have very little debt. The more nuance you explore the more complicated it gets but chances are whatever your emotions are telling you to do, the opposite path is probably better. even better is if you cna remove emotions entirely.
Is there any concise statement of your investing philosophy available on your blog? For example, I know you are not an adherent to the buy and hold philosophy of maintaining certain allocations to stocks, bonds, cash and/or other asset classes. Nor do I believe that you consider valuations in the Graham tradition, that is to overweight in stocks in high-yield, low multiple enviroments and vice versa. Nor do I sense that income from a portfolio is prmary consideration for you. You have mentioned that risk-adjusted return is important, but exactly how do you tranlate that notion into action? Are there certain parameters and conditions that must be met before you take certain action aside from 200 DMA and inverted yield curve? How do you determine which sector is favorable for investing in? You don't seem to be a numbers guy, more of a feel of the market. I am just trying to figure out your general methodology.
not to turn this into an overt schill but you could look at our website ysfi.com.
very concisely i take what I know of market history combined with what I believe is going on now and try to construct a forward looking analysis.
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