...It's tourney time!A few more random items today.
The Fed announcement seemed to do a couple of things. I heard one pundit say this means this will not be the 1930's, that is now off the table. I hope that is true but from a stock market perspective that maybe kinda sorta already has happened; two 50% declines in one decade (I realize the first decline in GD 1.0 was much worse). Or maybe not.
Another byproduct of the announcement is that bond yields gyrated violently and the dollar tanked. I'll try to sort out the issuing of debt on one hand and buying it back on the other
Before the dollar started this long (what I think is a) counter-trend rally I was able to get something close to 20% from Norwegian sovereign debt. I believe this type opportunity will come around again. I am not worried about trying to time such a thing so I am not worried about when but I do believe this is an important concept.
That is not a call to lopside into that part of the market but some exposure could do some nice heavy lifting.
On the way home from the gym yesterday I caught some of Fast Money on Sirius. The gang sounded all fired up thanks to the rally currently underway. I put up a post yesterday about the SPX taking back 800 for a short while. After such a big move, but far from historic for bear market rallies, it makes sense for some folks to get excited and extrapolate further. I have been writing about a big rally for a while, my timing was probably wrong, and this might be happening now. We'll see. If we get to 900 on the SPX on this move I'm going to post something like "if you were scared to the point of being very upset at SPX 675, 900 is a pretty good time to sell a little something." A little something will not mean go 100% cash.
Did you see the Barack-etology segment on ESPN yesterday? About the only thing I like about him is that he is a sports fan. If you saw the segment you know he really knows his stuff about college basketball. He knew that Ty Lawson has a bum toe and the Oklahoma is not very deep among other things. He said he plans to sneak a peek at the games today and will watch the final game. Um I would think he might have a little more on his plate than to know that much about college hoops. I know what you're thinking, someone briefed him before filming. OK, if that is correct then I'll say "Um I would think he might have a little more on his plate than to spend the time on that kind of detailed briefing about college hoops. Do I have this wrong?
15 comments:
Not sure if you were joking or not on the president's basketball knowledge vs the importance of his work or not but....
I don't know of anyone that does their job 24-7. Web surfing and water cooler talk are much needed mental distractions for us regular joes let alone a job that includes saving and running the country. Additionally a person cannot mentally be their job for the entire day and including weekends. Important jobs like the presidency would have long hours and include weekend job related activities. But not every waking moment.
I have no problem with the president or anyone really that has side hobbies and interests as long as their job and daily tasks get done.
Now if the president is doing his job or not is certainly a different subject and perhaps one best left for a political blog.
I don't know if I'm joking. I can't recall a president with that kind of depth of sports current event knowledge. W used to own a piece of the Rangers, I remember Clinton went to the NCAA final that Arkansas played in 1993 but I don't recall either one talking about sports much. I really don't know what to think. It's probably nothing.
Now that the Fed seems committed for the next leg a lot of buyers will be going in heavy to play the shock wave in bonds and gold (and anti-dollar) but it looks like hot money to me and there is no way to know how long it will last. The chance for a repeat of the first depression was low before and even lower now but there are other forms of economic depression and we are not out of those woods IMHO.
As to Obama, Roger you're way over-thinking it: Unlike a lot of folks in Washington, past and present, it's pretty clear Obama can walk down the street, chew gum and rub his tummy counterclockwise at the same time so, whatever you think of his policies, leave the man his hobbies and a chance for a break from the grind. I swear only the Republicans could come up with a talking point that suggested a man or a nation couldn't do more than a few things at once: In psychology it's called projection, no need to go around repeating it; frankly it comes across as foolish.
You have this wrong. :)
if you stop judging him by what is possible and start judging him by what is probable from a liberal democrat with both houses controlled by same...you might start to like him more....otherwise I suggest you start drinking more...no, not soda...you know what
I agree with you re: Barack (NOTE: Not about the fact that that's the only thing you like about him, cuz I like him a lot, but aboout the college basketball thing.) He's probably a genuine fan. His brother-in-law is also a college basketball coach. I doubt he'd be "briefed" on that kind of thing.
I gotta say you're off-base on this one rog. EVERYBODY needs some downtime, no matter how big or small their responsibilities. Using myself as an example (a lowly IT consultant), some of my best insights into how to solve my latest coding problem come while i'm away from work, watching a ballgame or just generally goofing off. Mental distance from the task at hand seems to help. btw, i've been missing the fire department posts, i assume it's the fire 'off-season' out there...
i may be way off.
The fire season is just starting up here in the next few weeks. We have a big inter-agency drill in early April that kind of kicks things off.
Lately we have had very few medical calls, knock on wood, and last year was very quiet for wildfires, knock on a lot of wood.
Re Obama, the first story i read about him was an article by a writer for a Sports Magazine that shot some hoops with him and admired his skill and competitive spirit. I believe he has a life, like you. Re the fire season, in Florida we are coming off a cold dry winter and have began to experience the start of our fire season. Do you have controlled burns for management in your area, or just fight the fires as they show up?
Sam
they have given up on the term control burn because well, really... and now say prescribed burns and they go on from Nov-Feb.
In Florida they freak out when the RH goes down to 35, very high fire danger. Here 35% RH and it is a hot soggy mess where nothing burns.
Fire behavior is fascinating.
People who don't like Obama come up with the most ridiculous reasons to criticize him.
Hey Roger. Is there a quick and easy answer as to why in Florida a 35 RH is a very big concern while in Arizona its less of one? Is it really different or is the difference in what each state is used to with their standard environmental conditions?
I'm pretty sure there is a rule that you can't knock on wood when talking about fires. That has to be bad luck or something lol.
that is straight up funny.
as far as your serious question, I'm not sure. Wildfires in Florida, per the training I've had in AZ, are mostly grass fires (this is true in Texas too) and we don't really have grass fires here because we don't have that type of grass really. Maybe it has soemthing to do with that??
I just know that RH in the thirties is bad there. Our concern here goes up when RH is in the single digits which lasts for a couple of months. I have fought two fires in the pouring rain here though (go figure) caused by lighting.
Such petty criticism - you like nothing about the President except his interest in college basketball and then imply he's goofing off on the job? Stop goofing off on your money management job preaching political hate - save it for a call in to Rush Limbaugh.
call rush limbaugh? if i like one thing about obama then that is one thing more than i liked about bush.
i dislike them all pretty equally.
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