Last week a commenter said something about Obama still campaigning being unpresidential. I did not give it much thought at the time. This is now the second time I'm seeing him speak today.
His supporters would say he is being more transparent and I'm not sure I could refute that but the notion that it is unpresidential resonates more with me this week. I don't know the answer but I do know transparency or not we still have very few details and the markets have been punished for it. I realize the decline is a counter factual thing but I gotta agree with the people saying he is off to a bad start and it probably won't be long before people lose patience.
What do you think?
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36 comments:
Roger, I would say that the President is the leader of the country, the "decider," and not some ceremonial figurehead, like a king. Therefore, the fact that he speaks to the nation and communicates with it in speeches does not seem inappropriate to me. If the "markets" do not respond favorably to his comments, that is too bad. Sometimes I think we look at the market as seers used to look at entrails of animals, seeking signs of disapproval or approval of whatever currently concerns us. While not irrelevant to Mr. Obama's words and policies, market action is on a different plane and should be addressed and interpreted on that plane. Bottom line is, since Mr. Obama is the President, whatever he does is "presidential," within limits, of course. Personally, I think he remains well within those limits.
IMO, he's doing 2 things....
1. Doing what hasn't been done for 8 years. Speeches, press conferences, etc.
2. Selling the plan.
"The Street" wants action. While that's not a primary goal, I think things need to keep moving forward and he knows that. Otherwise he'll lose votes from anyone who's lost a ton in their 401k.
Nothing really unusual.
Also, perhaps the networks said "hey man we won't put anything on Tuesday night opposite American Idol. If you'd like to give us some content (hint hint) that'd be great."
He certainly isn't doing any worse the George Dumya Bush. We really got great economic leader ship from him didn't we? Paulson and Bernanke continued to pat themselves on the back and say that they acted in a timely manner. WTF? My biggest disappointed is that our Treasury Secretary is a tax cheat. I also think that Nancy Pelosi is pure evil.
I don't have a problem with him. The same cannot be said for the rest of the Democrats in congress though.
Mr. Roger,
That man is a communicator. He is dancing with his audience and his Nation the best he can. It could even be said that he is choosing to do so himself. Good or bad, I'm bot sick of him yet.
Just a humble opinion from "up" here in Canada.
Thanks!
I have no real opinion one way or the other, but do remember that George did the same thing early in his term... going around to the states and taking his message around "the filter". I think it may have more to do with being a current day president that anything else because your message is quick to get lost in all the noise.
I'm sick of his perpetual campaign. Every time he gets on T.V the market craters.
My retired buddy just revealed he lost 40% plus on his nest egg. He is considering doing part time work now just to make ends meet. Income dried up on his portfolio from 40k a year to 15k now.
This is from the guy who made the "unpresidential" comment last week. The impetus of the comment was the mortgage assistance plan being announced in front of a partisan cheering crowd. In my opinion, a major, expensive policy initiative should be made via a sober "presidential" news conference or similar dignified, non-partisan event. (As I did not see the Obama presentations today, I will reframe from commenting on them.) Obama and the democrat congress are, with some justification, still of the mind set that they can blame everything on Bush. With the signing of the stimulus (some call spending) bill, implementation of the mortgage assistance plan, and the passage of time, the blame Bush cry will be less credible. Like it or not, Obama and the democrat congress now own the economy; and Bush certainly left them a mess. By about the end of 2009 Qtr 2, the public will start holding the democrats accountable.
Samuel Vaknin, Ph.D. Dr. Vaknin has written extensively about narcissism.
Dr. Vaknin states " I must confess I was impressed by Sen.Barack Obama from the first time I saw him. At first I was excited to see a black candidate. He looked youthful, spoke well, appeared to be confident - a wholesome presidential package. I was put off soon, not just because of his shallowness but also because there was an air of haughtiness in his demeanor that was unsettling. His posture and his body language were louder than his empty words.
Obama's speeches are unlike any political speech we have heard in American history. Never a politician in this land had such quasi "religious" impact on so many people. The fact that Obama is a total incognito with zero accomplishment, makes this inexplicable infatuation alarming.
Obama is not an ordinary man. He is not a genius. In fact he is quite ignorant on most important subjects. Barack Obama is a narcissist.
Dr. Sam Vaknin, the author of the Malignant Self Love believes "Barack Obama appears to be a narcissist."
Vaknin is a world authority on narcissism. He understands narcissism and describes the inner mind of a narcissist like no other person. When he talks about narcissism everyone listens.
Vaknin says that Obama's language, posture and demeanor, and the testimonies of his closest, dearest and nearest suggest that the Senator is either a narcissist or he may have narcissistic personality disorder (NPD).
Narcissists project a grandiose but false image of themselves. Jim Jones, the charismatic leader of People's Temple, the man who led over 900 of his followers to cheerfully commit mass suicide and even murder their own children was also a narcissist. David Koresh, Charles Manson, Joseph Koni, Shoko Asahara, Stalin, Saddam, Mao,Kim Jong Ill and Adolph Hitler are a few examples of narcissists of our time. All these men had a tremendous influence over their fanciers. They created a personality cult around themselves and with their blazing speeches elevated their admirers, filled their hearts with enthusiasm and instilled in their minds a new zest for life. They gave them hope! They promised them the moon, but alas, invariably they brought them to their doom.
When you are a victim of a cult of personality, you don't know it until it is too late. One determining factor in the development of NPD is childhood abuse. "Obama's early life was decidedly chaotic and replete with traumatic and mentally bruising dislocations," says Vaknin. "Mixed-race marriages were even less common then. His parents went through a divorce when he was an infant (two years old). Obama saw his father only once again, before he died in a car accident. Then his mother remarried and Obama had to relocate to Indonesia, a foreign land with a radically foreign culture, to be raised by a stepfather. At the age of ten, he was whisked off to live with his maternal (white)grandparents. He saw his mother only intermittently in the following few years and then she vanished from his life in 1979. She died of cancer in 1995".
One must never underestimate the manipulative genius of pathological narcissists. They project such an imposing personality that it overwhelms those around them. Charmed by the charisma of the narcissist, people become like clay in his hands. They cheerfully do his bidding and delight to be at his service. The narcissist shapes the world around himself and reduces others in his own inverted image. He creates a cult of personality. His admirers become his codependents.
Narcissists have no interest in things that do not help them to reach their personal objective. They are focused on one thing alone and that is power. All other issues are meaningless to them and they do not want to waste their precious time on trivialities. Anything that does not help them is beneath them and do not deserve their attention.
If an issue raised in the Senate does not help Obama in one way or another, he has no interest in it. The "present" vote is a safe vote. No one can criticize him if things go wrong. Those issues are unworthy by their very nature because they are not about him.
Obama's election as the first black president of the Harvard Law Review led to a contract and advance to write a book about race relations. The University of Chicago Law School provided him a lot longer than expected and at the end it evolved into, guess what? His own autobiography! Instead of writing a scholarly paper focusing on race relations, for
which he had been paid, Obama could not resist writing about his most sublime self. He entitled the book Dreams from My Father. Not surprisingly, Adolph Hitler also wrote his own autobiography when he was still nobody. So did Stalin. For a narcissist no subject is as important as his own self. Why would he waste his precious time and genius writing about
insignificant things when he can write about such an august being as himself?
Narcissists are often callous and even ruthless. As the norm, they lack conscience. This is evident from Obama's lack of interest in his own brother who lives on only one dollar per month. A man who lives in luxury, who takes a private jet to vacation in Hawaii, and who has raised nearly half a billion dollars for his campaign (something unprecedented in history) has no interest in the plight of his own brother. Why? Because, his brother cannot be used for his ascent to power. A narcissist cares for no one but himself. This election is like no other in the history of America. The issues are insignificant compared to what is at stake.
What can be more dangerous than having a man bereft of conscience, a serial liar, and one who cannot distinguish his fantasies from reality as the leader of the free world?
I hate to sound alarmist, but one is a fool if one is not alarmed.
Many politicians are narcissists. They pose no threat to others...They are simply self serving and selfish. Obama evidences symptoms of pathological narcissism, which is different from the run-of-the-mill narcissism of a Richard Nixon or a Bill Clinton for example. To him reality and fantasy are intertwined. This is a mental health issue, not just a character flaw.
Pathological narcissists are dangerous because they look normal and even intelligent. It is this disguise that makes them treacherous.
Today the Democrats have placed all their hopes in Obama. But this man could put an end to their party. The great majority of blacks have also decided to vote for Obama. Only a fool does not know that their support for him is racially driven. This is racism, pure and simple. The downside of this is that if Obama turns out to be the disaster I predict, he will cause widespread resentment among the whites. The blacks are unlikely to give up their support of their man. Cultic mentality is pernicious and unrelenting. They will dig their heads deeper in the sand and blame Obama's detractors of racism. This will cause a backlash among the whites.
The white supremacists will take advantage of the discontent and they will receive widespread support. I predict that in less than four years, racial tensions will increase to levels never seen since the turbulent 1960s. Obama will set the clock back decades...America is the bastion of freedom.
The peace of the world depends on the strength of America, and its weakness translates into the triumph of terrorism and victory of rogue nations. It is no wonder that Ahmadinejad, Hugo Chavez, the Castrists, the Hezbollah, the Hamas, the lawyers of the Guantanamo terrorists and virtually all sworn enemies of America are so thrilled by the prospect of their man in the White House.
America is on the verge of destruction. There is no insanity greater than electing a pathological narcissist as president."
There is undoubtedly some truth in the last comment but no proof that he's any worse or more dangerous than Bill Clinton in that regard...
That author's website is hilarious:
"In the last few decades, the electorate of the United States of America has voted into the White House either psychopathic leaders or narcissistic ones."
People's perceptions are interesting as are psychological theories but I prefer data most days: It would appear that if you're a conservative Republican and/or prefer your leaders to behave like decisive manly-men then the honeymoon with Obama is probably over but then you were likely never a fan of his anyway. Just about everyone else, Democrats and independents alike (about 63% of the country), seem willing to give him the time he needs at least for now; e.g., latest Gallup pole at http://tinyurl.com/acq48w
Given the error rate of the previous team of manly-men, to say nothing of the errors committed by those super-studs running the investment banks, a bit of decision-time does not seem inappropriate.
As far as the markets go I have had a great week: Entered a couple long positions at really good prices (puts I sold to set this up were exercised) but SKF was giving me a nose-bleed so I had to take some off the table today. Mama mia, this market does move fast though. I'm used to the noisiness but don't believe I have ever seen velocity and amplitude like this return month-after-month, like the grand mal seizures of a chronic epileptic.
I can not agree more. Obama is bad news. He is not only transparent, but I fear that he will be easily led or misled by his advisers. I hope he picked the right ones. I see limited background and experience in this guy and when he speaks sometimes i get the feeling he is just making it up as he goes.
On another note what the heck is going on with GE. If this baby tanks we could be in real trouble. The yeild is now over 14% and i expect a huge cut any day now.
bwjr
Obama has an obsession with controlling the message. That's good campaigning and good Alinsky but, it ain't leadership.
No alternate message can be tolerated. This is why Obama attacked Rush (see Alinsky's rule thirteen). This is also why Gibb's, the designated attack puppy, was set on Rick Santolli.
Meanwhile, Pelosi and Reid are going to roll Obama.
That's Rick Santelli. I'm confusing his name with Barron's Mike Santoli.
Roger, I have always enjoyed your commentary and yes, the markets are being punished right now. However, these capital markets are merely a reflection of investors' sentiments and these ascertains do change.
Two things I believe. One: It's almost halftime and we're down a discouraging bit and the game isn't over yet and two: Our President is our team captain and we're going to win.
Walker
I'm sick of Obamunism. I think the whole world would be much better off if him and the rest of the US government vanished like a fart in the wind
I certainly hope that "we win". But I doubt it will be because of Obama. Lets face it, he has shown very bad judgement in the past (before and after being elected - can you say Rev. Wright and Tom Daschle). Now he comes into office, rushes in a huge spending bill without debate, then turns around and proclaims that he wants to reduce the deficit. Says he wants bipartisanship, but when called on it says "I won". He might be a great speaker, but I don't trust him.
President Obama is using his bully pulpit. I grew up learning that the POTUS was the "Persuader," not the "Decider" in our system of Democracy. Things tipped a bit to the haywire side with the Executive Branch thinking it could override the Constitution with Orders. This is now the return to normalcy that President Bush appealed to, but didn't carry out, post-9/11. The President is being Presidential once again.
When I go to Venice, I remind myself that in the past it was one of most powerfull and affluent city in the world. However, today it is only a turist attraction. New York, Los Angels, Washington can one day become only a tourist attraction. There is a shift of power and wealth from the US to perhaps China. When the something as heavy as the downfall of the finacial system has happened which has infected the rest of the world, the down fall of the US has started. The President and the rest of the administration have taken this very lightly. Look what happened when the camunist downfall started. I do not think that a president like Obama and his administration can do much. We are worried about our individual portfolio, however, the ramifications are much more severe than what we can immagine. I lived in the states for 30 years, in 1994 I packed my bags and left for good. We(US) denouces executions. Yet the individial states hide within the US to excercise it.
We denouce fraud, yet Wall Street hides within the rating agencies to exercise it.
I can go on and on to provide a very long list.
Can this be the downfall of the US, maybe.
We are in for a new era. I do not know what it looks like it, but something is happening.
Best to all. We all need it.
Americans would do themselves a favor to focus more on what Obama does vs. what he says.
So far he has signed legislation that is supposed to "stimulate" the economy, although less than $200B will be spent in 2009, and most economists agree the bulk of the spending will do nothing to stimulate the economy.
The next shoes to drop: TARP 2.0, Automaker bailout 2.0, Bank privatization, and his budget/tax proposals.
I'll go out on a limb and guess Obama will continue the Mr. Bipartisanship rhetoric as he spends us into oblivion, only to round out his massive tax hikes to punish the greedy. Anyone who opposes Obama ala Santelli will be attacked as an unpatriotic obstructionists.
And here's one last prediction: Watch the MSM go after Jindal tomorrow night into Wednesday. You read it here first.
From the time he was elected until the January things got worse and worse. I agree that perhaps he is getting a little too much exposure, but considering the fact that the "pundits" still think the Republican way is the best way and do their "reporting" with that bias, I think he is trying to go around them.
I don't think it is his job to worry about what the stock market does every day. He needs to keep his eye on the long run, what is best for the country. Not, what is best for Wall Street. Quite frankly, we have had eight years of worrying about making the Wall Street poobahs happy - and you can see where that got us.
So I say give him a chance. To hell with the day to day gyrations of the market. Barry at BP said the other day he tought they were throwing a temper tantrum, and that sounds about right to me.
There is no magic cure for what is wrong with the economy. We just need to hang on and give him a chance. And ignore the people who really want him to fail and things to go back like they were.
I think no one who followed the election should be surprised. Obama never seemed to deflect the wealth redistribution charge. His two accomplices on capitol hill are eager to do everything they can to push the agenda. The more he can blame America's troubles on capitalists (bankers, corporate chieftains) the more he will rally the non-taxpaying voters to his side during this time of "crisis." Its a good plan and he seems to be succeeding. Not that I agree with it.
His downfall may be his failure to deliver with big government promises. If things are not substantially improved by next congressional elections, the tide may turn. Stay tuned!
I'm tired so forgive the rambling.
More pork on the way;
http://tinyurl.com/c2hqdm
Seriously, is this the "change" people voted for?
Roger-
I'm not sure what to think. I didn't vote for the guy but that doesn't matter at this point. He and his team need to articulate and lead a path thru this. That is what being President is all about. He is our President and I am doing my best to support him but running for President is different than being President. If this is just occurring to him, we are in for some difficult times until he gets it.
Rather than pretend I understand what is happening like the inimitable TomK -- hint, the MSM will not attack Jindal because the MSM is in fact largely owned by conservatives but Jindal will be attacked by various elements regardless because he is a patent moron who argues a capital gains tax cut will be more stimulative than spending on infrastructure even though there are no capital gains in a time of deep recession -- I'll rephrase portions of jchase123 and Robert Pease's points as simply this: Most people implicitly understand that the current administration is more sophisticated, knowledgeable and mature than the preceding administration but we are approaching a point where this alone can not suffice; some decisions must be made and they should be made publicly.
All the Republican attempts at sabotage aside, it is a reasonable request that our president do so.
Using the bully pulpit is fine, but where's the rest of his team? Geithner, Sumners, Volker. Is anybody there? It's been less than 2 months, but I am losing patience. It's past time to put their plan to work. At this rate by month #3 we'll all be dead broke!
He inherited a total screwed up financial system. Housing prices continue to fall adding to the problem.
What exactly is he supposed to do? He's only been in office less than 2 months. Perhaps if his administration nationalizes the banks and auto industry too soon, he'll be called a socialist. If he doesn't they he'll be blamed for their demise.
What do I think?
I think your a racist.
you're
*slaps forehead*
a racist.
Nobody is blaming Obama for the economy, but his prescription for getting us out of it is going to have long lasting and negative financial consequences. If Obama would have proposed a real stimulus bill, he would have had nearly unanimous support in congress. Instead he supported a Democratic goodie bag bill that had too much backloaded spending, spending that will be become a permanent baseline into the future.
And the idea that the MSM is owned by Conservatives is patently ridiculous. Do Conservatives also own the entertainment industry? They must, all I see and hear is an unending stream of TV shows, movies, and pop music full of conservative messages. lol
Roger,
IMO, you certainly didn't go off on a rant but I think political commentary is best left elsewhere
Why should we expect an electorate that has been weaned on increasingly fragmented and hyper-paced imagery and an ever shortening "news cycle" to suddenly grow a patience muscle?
We've met the enemy and he is us.
I worked for 8 years analyzing the legal risks and complications surrounding the derivative products that are now charitably referred to as "toxic sludge". The CDOs and CDS and synthetic CDOs and CDOs of synthetic CDS are spread throughout the global financial system.
There is no single jurisdiction in which a court may exercise "supra contractual" rights to "fix" anything. Folks, this is the downside of "partial" globalization: everyone wants a piece of the market, and everyone wants their own laws to apply, and NO ONE wants to sort out how to sort out the conflicts of laws - an especially thorny issue when the "damaged party" in one jurisdiction has limited political influence in any other jurisdiction.
What am I going on about?
This is NOT a problem that will be fixed by "decisive leadership". The problems still ahead of us are MORE complex than those behind us (or already described), and resolving the issues will take time, and far more patience than most (self included) may have.
But there is no choice that doesn't lead to pain - the debate is whether doing this the "right" way will be any less painful than just doing something.
For a country that depends on Xanax (anti-anxiety) and caffeine (to keep running as fast as we can, which usually is what we must do to just stay in place and not fall too far behind), there is next to no chance we have the stomach to think our way through this... thus the misguided and ultimately dangerous urge to "do something".
I'm hoping Obama has the courage to resist the urgings of the most anxious around us. If his addresses to Congress, speeches at Treasury, and "fireside chats" (hey, remember them - they helped and I'm sure he (O) is hoping the frequent addresses will) do the same thing - its conventional wisdom that sentiment is a big (the biggest?) part of economic activity - I say, let's hear from him every day.
R in NY
PS: As a trader I'll stay short as long as Roger maintains his equanimity and relative impatience with the progress being made. It reflects a (misguided, in my opinion) view that once we finally "fix" this, we'll get back on track. I think this IS the track: high vol, huge uncertainty, lots of false rallies and frequent breath-catching drops as assets revalue. We are going to be sorting out the implications and complications of this financial mess for years, not weeks. There won't be any meaning left in "forming a bottom"... and that will be the time to get long. But expectations of price growth rates >2-4% p.a. will only signal more vol and more bouncing. We'll be at the bottom when conventional wisdom recognizes that price growth is only meaningful as a function of improved/increased productivity... in a world of finite resources.
i With all the positive & negative chatter, its time to give our new President a chance to succeed. This new congressional budget will be a good test. Its time to get rid of the 9000 ear marks of both Republicans & Democrate's. The President should vido the bill.We waste too much money in every sector. How many companies can you name that approve contracts without bids? Do failing companies and government really need to give out bonuses for failure? Has anyone ever posted the year end bonuses that congress gives their aids & postal managers? What we need is someone like Harry Truman, who went after excess war profiting very well.
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