Wikinvest Wire

Monday, January 12, 2009

This week's Barrons featured the first part of the annual Barron's roundtable. Included in there were report cards for last year's January roundtable and also the mid year update.

The stock picks were dreadful. Of course in a down 38% they are going to be dreadful. As Meryl Witmer worked through her 2009 picks she shared the logic and process she uses as a value investor and I thought well this is probably similar if not identical to the process she has shared in years past. I can remember past years picks by Witmer being very good with this process but not so for 2008.

So scrap the process? Of course not. The point here is that in a bear market bottom's up stock picking is unlikely to swim against the tide of a 38% decline. This has been the case before and will be the case in future bear markets.

The picture is the entry to the Boca Raton Resort which is where I am for the Inside ETFs Conference. This place is swanky.

5 comments:

Stephen Drone said...

2009 predictions are pretty funny. You've either got Rhoubini-Mish-Shiller "nothing is good we're all screwed I look for S&P 300 but my portfolio is all in equities"

or

"no no, the first quarter or 2 will be bad but we'll have a positive year I'm gonna avoid mentioning unemployment SMILE".

2 predictions enter. 1 prediction leaves.

Anonymous said...

I think Rogers prediction is better than many.

Rally, followed by decline. After that I part ways with Roger as he expects a flat year while I expect the decline to continue.

Anonymous said...

Viewing the Boca photo makes me wonder: Where are the customer's yachts?

Anonymous said...

I was in Boca for a conference (CDOs of all things...!) back in 2006. There were yachts parked behind the hotel on which the big investment banks hosted very swanky parties - but they were largely invite only, and you needed to be on the buy side to get an invite. One of the yachts was named "Positive Carry" and was owned by a boutique investment house specializing in ... wait for it ... CDOs backed by subprime RMBS.

I heard that boat was sold in 2007...

R in NY

Anonymous said...

While you're in Florida, you should visit Del Boca Vista.

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