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10 comments:
Your wife's voice brought back memories of my mother-in-law. Thanks a lot.
T
If the run up to 931 had nothing to do with fundamentals and the possible run down to (?) will have nothing to do with fundamentals, why then are you stating fundamentals, industrials, financials as a percent, etc. to refute a case made on a different set of fundamentals?
I'd like to see more fact based analysis of this. Charts comparing p/e's to market performances, individual sectors p/e's to the broad market performance.
With the massive govt. intervention in markets, the banana republicization of the US, does history of past performances, market indicators tell us much? Will fundamentals mean anything in the near term future?
I like Mish a lot but I think his recent prediction based on pe or elliot wave or what ever may be in error. I'm not so sure this market doesn't just keep rallying from here.
ted spread continues to show easing of the crisis and I do not see a democratically controlled congress being held in check by a liberal democratic president. They will keep the printing press busy 24/7
i am attempting to refute the PE arguemnt with the numbers the people making that argument rely on, how things usually work and some theory.
Drop the P, keep the E and 600 is closer than 1,000.
Sorry Roger, not one of your better posts. Rambled a bit, seemed to not have your thoughts together.
I found Roger's post exactly in line with the market and how I see it moving along. I will say that the comments on the financials are one reson I see that as a (this will not be viewed as sane) possible haven for long term investing. The gov will not let them fail, there is a back stop and once the 4Q earnings wich will be bad (and lead to a testing of lows) are behind us the wind will be at our backs for upward momentum.
Did I ever tell you youre my hero?
Youre everything, everything I wish I could be.
Oh, and i, I could fly higher than an eagle,
For you are the wind beneath my wings,
cause you are the wind beneath my wings.
Oh, the wind beneath my wings.
You, you, you, you are the wind beneath my wings.
Fly, fly, fly away. you let me fly so high.
Oh, you, you, you, the wind beneath my wings.
Oh, you, you, you, the wind beneath my wings.
Fly, fly, fly high against the sky,
So high I almost touch the sky.
Thank you, thank you,
Thank God for you, the wind beneath my wings.
Roger's discussion was sensible particularly since I consider forward earnings worthless as a real valuation metric even when smoothed; markets are already largely a matter of opinion so forward estimates only add another layer, a play within a play as it were.
Normally I don't cross-post but since I made this comment on Ritholtz's site (http://tinyurl.com/7punde) nearly five days ago -- a lifetime in the virtual world -- and it seems germane (plus I like re-using tinyurl's) ...
Neither trailing nor forward earnings are particularly useful as a gauge of market valuation; earnings need to be normalized over an entire cycle or two to provide the appropriate benchmark. As a ‘classic’ value investor John Hussman has a lot to say about this and his standard methodology can be found at http://tinyurl.com/d2gn7 with a more recent article using that methodology here at http://tinyurl.com/5nkzsl
(Much) shorter version: For the first time in over a decade the S&P is not overvalued but that doesn’t mean it is now super cheap nor incapable of going lower, only that the probability of being rewarded rather than punished over the next decade is better than it has been in a long time.
Quite off topic -- We're having a Prescott area blogger get together Sunday Jan. 18 at 2 p.m. at Casa Sanchez, 1459 West Gurley. Hope to see you there. You can contact me at walkingprescott -at- gmail -dot- com.
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