First item is this article from the WSJ. Apparently the Pennsylvania employee pension has run into some trouble with a portable alpha strategy sold to it.I would think the legacy of Robert Citron would have taught all municipal pools of money to beware investment banks selling sophisticated strategies.
As a theme of the last couple of days; there is nothing wrong with simplicity. To that point I wanted to touch on something that I don't think I have specifically focused on enough.
One of the goals of taking defensive action after heeding a warning of some sort from the market is to simply have smaller ups and downs within the portfolio. I've spelled out the actions I have taken numerous times and so having a lot of cash raised means you go down less on down days and up less on up days. If the market seems like it is going to head lower for a while doesn't it make sense to simply reduce exposure?
If the average stock in the market is down 40% (made that number up, it is just an example) it stands to reason that the average stock in your portfolio will be down 40%. What seems easier to you, picking the stocks that will somehow only go down 20% or owning fewer stocks after taking heed of something like a breach of the 200 DMA or the 50 DMA crossing below the 200 DMA or the market getting 5% below the 200 DMA?
I'm sure that at the beginning of the year there was an analyst somewhere who made a compelling fundamental case for why DuPont (DD) would hold up in the face of a slow down. Still the stock is down 57% from its high. Now that analysis, if it exists, could have been completely correct but still the name is down a lot more than the market.
I do believe sector decisions and country decisions can help smooth out the ride but those decisions are nowhere near as important or as easy as simply having less exposure when it counts.
On an unrelated note a reader left the following comment on yesterday's post about Plaxico Burress; I hope you appreciate the fabulous life you have. Well I have specifically built the life I wanted to have which took time and planning. I had a couple hardships early on in my life, one of which that was quite serious, which gave me an appreciation for life such that I don't grow old in a cubicle plodding through rush hour traffic wishing the week away to get to Friday. I was in the log cabin before I had this phase of my career (meaning I took a risk to start into the current phase). So yes I fully appreciate the life I have worked hard to build and when I talk about bootstraps and the like I have a couple life experiences to back it up.





10 comments:
Off Topic,
Are treasuries (aided by ultrashort ETFs, TBT) the next Bubble or is the record low mortgages causing a surperspike in refinancing which is causing banks to buy a lot of 10 year treasuries.
If it is the later, the light at the end of the tunnel just got a lot brighter.
CA
I ask the following in yesterday's article instead of waiting for today's so I've copied it to here...
The big banks have issues that are called Capital Trusts, Preferreds, et al, and they have an average yield of 10%. One example is BACPRD and its yield is 10.2%.
Now my mom told me to be careful of things that look too good to be true, so how can Bofa and the rest continue to pay these high dividends? How safe are they?
Thanks.
I don't have much faith in the word bubble. I think treasury yields are unsustainably low. I would buy ten year paper with a 3.7% yield yet now it is 100 basis points below there. The fixed income market might be more messed up than the equity market. I do not know what the fallout is from this but i am not buying until yields normalize.
I would worry about the divs on the common more than the preferreds. In ability to pay the divs on the preferred is probably a death blow which I very publicly said I do not think will happen.
The yields paid on the newly issued preferred will, IMO, make it difficult for the common to earn much money.
sorry sorry sorry I would NOT buy ten yer paper yielding 3.7%
About the fabulous life you have...
Sigmund would have probably said the author of that brilliant statement has an insecurity issue compounded by a repressed anger component.
Funny stuff. I did a year in a cubicle and I'd rather do about anything than that again. You can just feel your life ticking by as you look at the grey walls. . .
ok, ok, I'm the author of the "i hope you appreciate your fabulous life" comment. Jeez, louise. The only thing that prompted it was having our first big snow of the year here in illinois and i see random is off in exotic hawaii. Nothing more than extreme envy about our respective weather conditions. Nothing to do with insecurity or repressed anger; not to mention, i work in a cubicle (IT consultant) and actually enjoy my job. Hope you're wearing plenty of sunblock out there rog, to protect all that thin skin.
All who read this blog should appreciate the life we have. Zimbabwe is in the middle of a Cholera epidemic, and Mumbai is still in a state of shock. IF you have the time and inclination to invest, you are not likely to be a subsistence farmer or nomad in a the lawless country.
Sam
to anon 3:33 from anon 8:58
Apologizing is half way to admitting your problem.
LOL
Couldn't resist.
Does anyone else see any irony in the fact that Robert "Citron" was treasurer of "Orange" County?
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