I've got to head out the door to Phoenix in a minute so just a short one here and I'm not taking the time to check the spelling of morte.
There were some concerned comments left overnight about the bailout flushing. Certainly I am surprised the bailout did not pass and I am not sure whether TARP money will somehow be allocated or not but the day appears like it will be ghastly.
Someone asked about whether to go to cash. So is it a good idea to panic along with everyone else? Is that ever a good idea? If you have not raised any cash months ago then I'm not sure what to say. The news is bad but for now this is consistent with a stumble along the bottom. The news now is the bailout but it could have been something else.
We'll see how it reverberates, whether it takes it outside the range to the down side at some point but when is an emotional response within your portfolio a good idea?
Proud Member Of
Random Roger
© 2009 | Gadget Theme Blogger Template
Original WPtheme By Blogger Template | Converted By Gadget Lover
| Distributed by eFree Blogger Help
Original WPtheme By Blogger Template | Converted By Gadget Lover
| Distributed by eFree Blogger Help
32 comments:
Last week I listed all of the good and bad in our economy/market that I could think of. Of course, there were a lot of bad but I couldn't come up with one good.
Here we go again with a few more to add to the bad list...no bailout, retail sales fall 1.8% and producer prices fall sharply.
We hear the pundits say that we're going to revisit the lows and bounce around. Even Roger said it.
So, I continue to ask the question...unless you're a trader, why be in this market at this time? Even good stocks are doing badly.
I think Madoff will turn out to be a much bigger story. When you've got someone of his stature using words like "Ponzi scheme," it strikes at the heart of investors' confidence.
What sound does a towel make when it's thrown in?
11% guy,
you go into or stay in the market when the news is horrible because you buy when there is blood on the street.
There is blood on the street noww. It may go lower or it may start up from here. I can not pick the bottom any better than this and do not know many who can. So I am a buyer because of all the bad news that scares you.
I will be happy to sell you some equities when the news is rosier. I like profits :)
The Roman Empire lasted 500 years. How long can a society whose principals are based on capitalism and the chase of the almighty dollar last?
Now we have a Ponzi scheme involving $50b. Look back over the recent years of previous scams, rackets, cons, etc. that the market has had to endure.
Is anyone surprised that we have another one? Something is rotten in Denmark!
The sky is falling
The sky is falling
The sky is falling
The sky is falling
It is so encouraging that the Senate appears to have some qualms, however temporary, about flushing our children's money down Wagoner's toilet!
Why is congress even negotiating with the big three execs and UAW leadership? Seriously how have these people earned a spot at the table? They clearly failed, the only question is 'when will you disappear so someone else can put our auto manufacturing sector to good use'?
Bailing out the beg 3 is the wrong thing to do...
Not bailing out the beg 3 is the wrong thing to do...
I don't believe Bush is going to allow it to happen on his watch. He doesn't need anything added to his list.
I wouldn't be surprised to see the market turn positive today.
11% Guy
6:55 AM you said
"...why be in this market at this time?"
7:50 AM you said
"I wouldn't be surprised to see the market turn positive today."
So now the sky is not falling? But I tried to help sound the alarm for you?
I haven't changed my tune. I expect the market to go below 8,000 again and probably again.
I expect the market to turn positive because Bush will probably save the bailout.
We'll see.
11% Guy
"If You Wait For The Robins,Spring Will Be Over." - Advice from Warren Buffet
You want to wait for the bad news to be gone before you buy? Is that really your game plan?
That would mean I'm waiting for the bottom which, of course, is a figment of some imagination.
I'm waiting for any good news. As I said earlier, there are a lot of negatives on the list but not one positive. Do you have one? I'll take as much help as I can get.
Here's some comic relief. I would be fine if the Dow fell another couple thousand points in exchange for the beg 3 failing. Hate unions, hate inefficient companies, etc. Now here's the funny part, I get to go home to Detroit for Christmas :>
11% Guy
"As I said earlier, there are a lot of negatives on the list but not one positive. Do you have one?"
Warren Buffet is buying equities
Hussman thinks stocks are reasonably valued
Bearish sentiment is high
S&P is showing higher hi's and higher low's
there are plenty of other signs, but I do not think you want one positive sign. I think you want Robbins, warm temperature, sunshine, and ladies in bikinis. Then you will agree spring has come and the bear market is over.
Roger,
Are you still in preferred shares as listed on Quantum?
I recall you favored the shorter call date. And I wonder if the ratings can be trusted?
Thx.
re preferreds I don't the ratings are crucial or useful in terms of deciphering A from double A or whatever. i prefer to have an opinion on the company myself and rely on that more. not that I can't be wrong and I do care if a down grade is coming because even if the analysis should not be relied upon that can move markets.
Bill B,
I was wondering if you needed a muzzle or bullet proof vest for Christmas?
I think my choice is to either come back with a bloody tongue or a bloody face.
Bill B
Better leave the Mercedes in the garage!
Here is a quote from Sen DeMint: “Frankly, GM is in a better financial situation than we are as a country. The only difference is we can print money."
Why is it, that the beginning of last summer you could not convince people that the market was going to go down dramatically?
Why is it that after the market falling 40 to 50% you can not convince most people this is a good time to buy?
There is a long line wating to see how much the autos receive. No one even mentions that GMAC is also seeking federal funds, and without GMAC I don't think GM can survive. This is not a political matter, and should be place under the unique powers provided by chapter 11 to restructure.
This is an interesting day. Asian markets crapped their pants, U.S. markets didn't - even in early trading when the auto bailout was a bust.
The bailout of the auto companies will get done. Unlike the credit situation, which is a multi-party, multi-dimensional affair, which would require Yankee Stadium to fit all the key players, the auto matter can be done in a hotel conference room with all the key players present. The auto deal will get done and the players will all agree to some measure of sacrifice, including the UAW. It's only a matter of getting the limited number of players to pay attention and realize that the alternative is chaos with everyone losing (except for the holders of GM CDS).
Roger:
Have you published anything on the G3 impact on CHL? I'm wondering if the decision for CHL to go with the home-grown G3 technology is a blessing in disguise. China wants to have more involvement in Africa. CHL is moving into Africa. Is there some synergy here that may be favorable to all concerned. I'm a holder of CHL and believe that the 21st century is the century of Asia. I'd be interested in knowing the name of your other China pick that's too small for you to mention.
What a disappointment today, I was hoping for some good buys but the market didn't go down much :( I only got one order executed today.
"So, I continue to ask the question...unless you're a trader, why be in this market at this time? Even good stocks are doing badly."
Oh? I'm up 30% in CAT and OSK, 13% in DE (with good dividends). I have a handful with 10%+ gains and decent dividends.
Why be in the market at this time? Because there are some good values there if one is a long term investor. Will I be ahead 6 months from now? I don't know, but I have confidence I'll be ahead 6 years from now. In retrospect, maybe I should have bought more at the lows, but I figure there will be some more drops to buy on. Maybe not, but at least I'm partly invested and making some headway.
“Frankly, GM is in a better financial situation than we are as a country. The only difference is we can print money." ROFL! That's the best quote I've heard!
"How long can a society whose principals are based on capitalism and the chase of the almighty dollar last?"
Principals? Capitalism?
I don't think capitalism is the problem. We have a society where there are real consequences for bad decisions/behavior.
11% Guy,
Roubini who as you may know predicted this financial mess would happen ahead of time advised getting out of the stock market and into cash and treasury bonds, iirc. Can't remember where I read it, but will try and find it.
It's not all bad. Vanguard's intermediate and long term treasury funds are up 11% and 17% respectively this year.
Since I started the comments this morning I'd like to finish them tonight.
It's remarkable how just a few choice comments can get the blood flowing. The riposte were informative and enjoyable. Thank you.
Personally, I think this sounds more and more like a Yahoo board. I think we're straying from Roger's vision of a look over his shoulder at the process of investing.
For a sec I thought you were referring to people posting anon instead of using their names.
"It's not all bad. Vanguard's intermediate and long term treasury funds are up 11% and 17% respectively this year"
Better recheck your figures.
Post a Comment