If you are a fan of college basketball you know that is Bill Raftery standing next to yours truly. I've been listening to him call games since he first left coaching, he is a hoot. If you are a college basketball fan you also know the reference made in the title of this post. Bill was very personable, the picture is blurry because Bill's classmate took the picture and didn't know how to use the camera, but still it's pretty cool. Later we walked by each other and he heckled me about eating a muffin (shortest line in the concession area). How cool is that?
I'm not sure how cool it is that the market still has plenty of panic left it, up 13% (or whatever) in two days is a panic and as many have pointed out the biggest up days occur during bear markets. I still believe we can go much higher very quickly and come back down yet again quickly.
I do still believe that people that really think of themselves as long term investors will be thrilled with most purchases made while SPX still has an 8 handle.
Short post as we are in Maui and my wife has put up with an awful lot.The second pic is from the Indiana Notre Dame game. I took a ton of action shots (I also went to Texas St. Joe's) and about three of them turned out.
11 comments:
How difficult is it to get tickets to the Maui invitational?
Aren't you sharing the computer again?
Here's the guy who is down 11%. I imagine that most of you have enjoyed and are enjoying this nice run. I'd like you all to know that I've participated in a small way. I'm still down 10.75% while many of you have regained much more.
SD, i bought my tickets online the first day they were available in august. I would imagine that like any other sporting event tickets could be had on stub hub though.
we are not sharing the computer, we each have a lap top now.
roger
since the market has ramped the past couple of days, perhaps you can get a new t-shirt.....the shirt in maui seems to be the same as the shirt you are wearing in boston. bargains can be had at hilo hattie, another bankrupt company.
lol, enjoy the tournament
aloha from kona
Off topic...Roger, what's your take on the protests in Iceland (upper-left headline on Drudge)? Yikes.
Hawaiian Air gives a coupon to Hilo Hatties, sweet!
The Iceland story is shocking and sad. Hopefully the worst of it will end soon. A cup of coffee up by a third? Yikes is right.
To the guy now down 10.75%,
I did regain some but my ytd still stands at -36%. Now I only need about 5-10 more years in this crazy market to get back to even.
I agree that we will be happy with stocks bought now if we can hold on and survive until they double or triple, LOL. These are interesting times to live (and invest) in.
Mind the VIX. And volume.
So far, there is a healthy respect and a healthy skepticism for Prez Elec's moves.
Heard that Hedgies have moved 50% of their inventory. If the market stabilizes above 800, that shoe may never drop (the other 50%). That, or if they can sell for redemptions into some low vol rallies (not 10% in 2 days...), some of the sloshing in this bathtub of a market may calm down.
My thesis is that the bad(dest) news may be out: Citi can't fail (not with a 270bn+ letter of credit from the gov), the autos won't fail (although I'd avoid buying the green bananas if I was Waggoner, et al), and while consumers are beaten and scared and definitely ain't going spree-wise anytime soon, they ain't dead. It all may come down to whether the mean of earnings projections (adjusting for guidance revisions) is within shouting distance of the actual 4th quarter numbers (ex-financials). (If too many analysts were drinking the Sir Larry koolaid, the misses will cause shivers and more.) That and the unemployment numbers. Both of these will tell us if we're tipping into a vicious circle down.
Financials are their own problem, with CMBS, Alt-A both depending on economy not spinning much slower. I think Paulson/Bernanke have had it right: if they can keep the heart beating, with whatever triage might work, the rest of the problems will be tackled in seriatim after.
Dollar issues loom large in that "after" BUT you have to convince me that there is another economy out there representing a better risk before I completely go short on USD.
I think its almost safe to go outside again, just don't expect sunbeams and rainbows. And, I'm STILL selling the rallies - I just use stops. And I don't expect vacuum drops anymore.
(Reason for caution: the VIX; its 'only' at 60. Too many drivers have their hands on the doorknob.)
R in NY
Off topic, but I just had a double bourbon - straight. I was supposed to close on two investment properties using a 1031 exchange. Unfortunately, it was through LandAmerica, which terminted ops on Monday.
Does anyone think I will receive any monies depositerd with that company as the 1031 intermediary?
Your knowledge is appreciated on this.
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