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11 comments:
Nothing surprising. You've been talking about bear rallies. And people are relieved C isn't going the way of the dodo bird.
Yep, panic down, panic up, panic down again: after people have some time to realize how lousy the C deal is the market is going to line something against the wall and shoot it; when folks realize the Fed and Treasury between them have put us on the hook for over 7 trillion (with a t) bucks I personally am going to start ducking at even the slightest sound.
Standing pat for now except for a small seasonality trade (with rising stops).
Careful out there everyone.
Lowry's ever-reliable demand/supply statistic providers were less than enthused with Friday's rally from a demand/supply perspective. Will be interesting to see their take on today. My guess: selling opportunity.
I kinda miss the suspense of the final hour of trading. We can only go one way now. Takes the fun out of it.
Oh Yeah .. it's very healthy.. especially loaded with vitamin "C" !! :)
So I wonder if the people that sold are getting back in 1000 points off the bottom? It sure wouldn't feel "safe" to me. It would probably feel safe back around 14,000 :>
I am waiting for the 200 DMA. I know I will lose out on a good chunck of the eventual rebound (since the spread is so large) but it will distinguish all these bear rallies from something to really believe in. Meanwhile sitting in cash. A strategy which has done me well ever since the market went below 200 DMA.
With treasury printing presses rolling at white-hot speed, a nice round of inflation may be on the horizon as early as late 2009. Jimmy Carter-esque.
T
I predicted it, once again. I just seem to have a bit of trouble with the direction......
TIPS have acted very poorly in the last couple of weeks, so for those of you who think inflation is coming back, you better hurry. In fact, since TIPS will pay back the par regardless of DEflation, some TIPS that currently sell at levels well under par offer returns of close to 3% with deflation and better with inflation.
TIPS might be acting that way if investors believe that the US will default (or possibly change the terms of the securities), but the long T-bond doesn't seem to be worried about default.
--gjg49
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