No one expects the bailout legislation to solve anything but could it bring less frenetic trading?Could the manic trading be over? I hope this is the case, anyway. This wouldn't have to be a bottom call just calmer trading which not a crazy thought even if I am hoping for too much.
Things seem a little calmer after the sell on the news reaction.
A reduction in the number of 4% days (regardless of direction) would be a sign of panic receding which could be a first step to getting healthy--even if full health is a long way off.
8 comments:
Man, I second that emotion, but whether it's the unemployment report or lack of faith in the bailout's efficacy (not an unreasonable fear) the credit markets don't seem to be feeling the love: TED spread is widening again and the equity market's talking back (rather atypical that) ...shorter version, not so good.
Off 160 on the bailout passage...another 1.3% stripped out of SPX... we're now about 30 minutes of trading away from the 1095 bottom.
I think we may be entering a "grind lower" phase, and until there is some health in the credit markets, I don't see any reason to even think "long" at this point.
R in NY
Your dog has the right idea.
Went to cash about a month ago for a breather. If I would have stayed in my loss over the four weeks would have matched my total year loss to date for the year. I know many would disagree with this then and maybe now, but sometimes a breather is OK. S&P 1350 is now a long way off and the bull hopefully will have a lot to run once it hits that point. I know most FA's disagree with this move, but there seems to be a feel that this is more than a normal bear and a recovery will take more than months or quarters. 1 , 3, and 6 months CD's average at about 3%.
BWJR
BWJR
call me old/new fashion. Who knows. The ag play isn't over yet.
Inflation is around the corner. Just allow the gloomy clouds dump their trash, afterwards the sun will shine and the OVER-stimulus will do it's thing (granted I believe the bail bill was bs, just wait more stimuli to come) after the sunshine we will see a wind of inflation to move the soil and the ag/comodities will be ban for another push. The new bubble will build maybe it will be carbon credits who knows what it will be. There will be one because of the stimulus. That will be a great time to sell.
Global story folks, more people, less resources, more fiat money, more fake wealth, more lost wealth. In the end it all revolves to two lines.
"earth and water"
For fun.
This is Sparta! I mean USSS!
Stay positive we have seen this before, everytime it has a new name. The Great Credit crunch 2k8, the bankers swindle. Use your imagination how history will write this either way, this is history and we are seeing it.
Don't be weak, don't be distracted. This is the time to stand up and shine. Stars are born in times like these dark days.
Lead!
If it gets worst before better, so be it. It will be better.
If not. ATF. Stock up on all on all of it as that will be tradeable. Some need to drink/smoke/shoot!
We will thrive!
Roger,
Mish's latest blog post is well worth a read. Similar to what Roubini has been saying, Mish explains that this bailout package ill not create any jobs, reduce foreclosures, etc...
Look out for further market lows!
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
fundamentally I agree, my hope was that it could be a palliative that they have begun to do something thus helping perception.
i would have preferred no bailout, more focus on things like coercing private market solutions, FDIC and other things to get money moving, so business could be conducted. althugh some feel otherwise I would like to see 157 changed and the short selling ban ended.
plenty of action but not a haphazardly built bailout.
Roger,
Interesting read by Trader Mark...
He indicates that we are at a double bottom formation at SP500 1,100 and if it holds we may be able to expect a short term bull run, if not I am scared to think about it...
http://seekingalpha.com/article/98429-calling-an-intermediate-bottom
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