I just came out of a meeting, looked at CNBC and this is what I saw.Obviously this tells us volatility is not gone, panic (works in both directions) is still here and more seriously a big feel good rally can come from out of nowhere at anytime and be huge.
11 comments:
I'll probably miss most of the bounce with my cash, but I'm not getting in front of the GDP report.
If we get follow through tomorrow this will be the start of that rally I have been talking about :)
If the Fed does not screw things up this could be a good week.
Roger,
great blog ...very useful...simply terrific.
now the question on my mind is whether this will be the start of a bear rally or the real bottom is in. Reason i ask is to whether sell the rally or hold positions for the real long term.
appreciate your thoughts !
My that was entertaining. Not much doubt in my dim little mind that this was a bear market rally so, as a trade, I'm glad I went longer the past couple weeks but, even if this surge follows through tomorrow, I won't be adding more to my exposure just yet (learned a think or two about bear traps in '82); but hell, who cares, right now it feels not half bad (but don't tell anybody that even a rate cut to zero won't change the economic scenario if banks are afraid to lend and/or people afraid to borrow, shhhhh ...let 'em dance a little f'crissakes).
Isn't it ironic that the Fed has to cut rates to almost nothing in order to help us out of a funk that they helped cause by keeping rates too low for so long?
And if it doesn't follow through, this will be the SP 800 the other anon was talking about :)
[ducking]
somebody on CNBC said there was
very little selling going on today...and light volume buying...
me thinks a bear market rally.
hoping it continues until "trick or treat" night...then I can get
out of a few bear traps.
Roger, how will you decide when the rally is "healthy demand for stocks" as opposed to emotional response? Are you sticking to the 200 DMA or are you adjusting to the change from "30% down" with a change in criteria for the quant side? Not looking for a prediction on bottom or time. The inverted rate curve dissappears when short term money goes to "0".
Appreciate your blog alot. I'm down 10%, not 40%, because of your thoughts on planning ahead.
Thanks, Sam
i've mentioned a few times concern about the market being too far below the 200 dma to wait that long. I have disclosed the couple of things i have done thus far in terms of getting a little more (not a lot) exposure. this hopefully means less of a lag if we have a huge rally, as opposed to a one day bounce. After a big rally I would look to up the defense a tad as I think we may not be at a bottom in terms of time.
Roger makes an interesting distinction: rallies last, while bounces are brief.
For some perspective, right now at 12.19a NYT, SPX mini futures are trading at 925, down from the 940 close at 4p. And, most importantly, the market was at 940 way back on ...LAST WEDNESDAY!!! The amazing "rally" that some may suggest represents the launch pad for "happy days are here again" looks like a bounce.
For fun [sic], look at the Fib retracement from the local high of 1004.82 on the E-minis back on 10/13/2008 to the high close yesterday...a 61.8% retracement.
A dead italian cat, perhaps. (Just sayin'...)
R in NY
If I had spare cash I'd be interested in Iceland's return and not equities, wouldn't you?
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