IndexUniverse.com had an article about Bank of NY creating a bunch of GDR indexes (similar to ADRs but traded in the UK) for quite a few countries and a couple of broad based indexes too.
The list;
- Bahrain
- Croatia
- Egypt
- Estonia
- Georgia
- Hungary
- India
- Israel
- Kazakhstan
- Kuwait
- Lebanon
- Netherlands
- Nigeria
- Oman
- Pakistan
- Poland
- Romania
- Russia
- South Korea
- Taiwan
- Turkey
- UAE
- Ukraine
- Eastern Europe
- Easter Europe ex-Russia
- MENA
- Middle East
- Africa
- Emerging Markets
I've long been of the opinion that portfolio construction is in the middle of a rather swift evolution and have expected/hoped that the world of investment products would generally keep up with that need. Accessing individual stocks from these countries is very difficult and even if they were easily accessible the task of stock picking would be difficult too.
Chances are that when things get healthier in Poland just owning the WIG 20, or something close, would be sufficient for a US based investor.The gang at Fistful of Euros spell out the problems Poland might be having these days and it does not look good but Poland, or any other country in trouble, will become attractive at some point.
If the US is like Japan in anyway it could be that returns in our domestic market will be below normal (long running theme) so US based investors will have to find another solution besides 75% in domestic equities.
Perhaps the answer will have to be something like one of the do-it-yourself hedgefunds (but heed this warning from Mebane Faber) that gets written about sometimes. I've written about this before of course but some weighting to absolute (I have my favorites), a heavier weighting to TIPS products (after asset deflation ends we could be in for some nasty inflation), a little something in commodities, another little something in currencies, a small weight in maybe two countries from the above list, a small weight in a couple of bigger emerging countries and a slightly larger weight in four or five developed countries could add up to 70% of a portfolio before getting to domestic equities and maybe something to hedge a little bit of all that foreign currency exposure.
I've written a couple of hundred posts over the years about having a plan for defense having thought a bear market less severe than we've actually had was a real possibility. Now I'm writing a lot about figuring out what to do in case the US continues to offer subpar returns because I think that is a real possibility.
There have been comments left of late along the lines of the stock market not working or whatever and while I'm not here to try to talk anyone out of anything, we all need to save for our futures and do something effective with what we save. The issue seems to be that do something effective might be changing. I don't know if it is changing but it might be and I feel it is important to figure something out.
7 comments:
Roger,
I went 80% invested a little to soon, so I am not a perma bear. Enjoy the rally as it should last a while.
I do not think this bear is over though. So if you think it is worse than you imagined therefore it must be over think again.
It certainly surprised me by falling further at a faster pace than I imagined.
I do not think you can cure excessive house hold debt created over 20+ years thanks to Mr. Bubble (aka Greenspan) in a year. This will be a long journey, but enjoy the respite.
seg
Sorta off topic, but it dawned on me ... there is an abnormal bear market going on right now. It's called the Nasdaq. It's still about 65% off its high. There have been some "bear market rallies" in between, but money invested 9 years ago is still heavily in the red. This will probably even beat the great depression market where the Dow did not regain its previous high until 1940 something.
In 2000 NASDAQ was 81% tech making it a sector fund as opposed to a broad based index, IMO.
we could argue that energy is still in a bear market from the early 1980s when it was almost 30% of SPX.
i wouldn't actually make the above argument about energy as i don't think comparing sectors to the market works.
Do you still own WIW and WIP?
How do you think the muni & preferred CEF's will do with the expected rate cut today?
What do you think of Iceland's 18% enticement? Are you taking another trip over there?
No interest in 18% pieces of rubble are still falling. Countries like Hungary, Romania, Latvia and so on are still working through also. I'm not really interested in trying to be that early to these places.
I would love to go back for a visit but other than work related trips (one or two coming up) and going to Hilo I don't think we've got big plans.
You gonna go?
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