Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Face For Radio
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This is a stock market blog about portfolio management,foreign stocks, exchange traded funds and the occasional musing about my firefighting experiences. The point here is to share process.
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6 comments:
Nice suit. That would be wasted on radio.
Today you wondered about the utility of CALSTRS actions to limit stock loans - There always seems to be more mythology than fact on what shares are truly available to lend - would you consider discussing and teaching us more about this subject ?
Some of the common myths? are using GTC orders, moving to cash from margin, certificates, etc...
mens wearhouse circa 2001 and it still fits!!
anon 604, i may not follow completely but the rules for hypothecation are very straight forward; shares in a margin account that has a margin debit.
if you have a debit you can have shares moved to T1 assuming it doesn't trigger a call by doing so.
not a huge fan of GTC orders but i am always by the market, given that, I prefer working an order through the day or being able to do something very quickly like BAC yesterday.
Thanks, I will have to dig into the hypothecation agreement at my broker - the idea that not only do the shares need to be in a margin acct., but the margin needs to be at debit is a twist I had not heard before.
The idea for the GTC orders is to place them at ridiculously high values, not to be executed, but to "protect" the shares...
So, would transitioning to a margin credit trigger the locate to void, and require associated short shares to find a new locate ?
Been following your blog every day for the past few months, like your style - THXS
technically yes moving shares to T1 would (if you have a margin debit) would be fewer shares available but practically speaking if the name is heavily traded a couple hundred shares won't matter.
Given the current market turmoil, I wanted to convey the following observations and comments:
The credit crisis and equity bear market has suddenly entered an alarming new phase. The intensity of the panic in the markets today has not been seen since the crash of October 1987.
Over the past several years, most respected economists have been attuned to and concerned about the consequences of the bursting of the credit bubble, but I am nonetheless startled by the extent of the financial turmoil we are now witnessing. In recent weeks, the U.S. government has nationalized the originators of three-quarters of this country’s mortgages (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) and the world’s largest insurance company (AIG). Two of the largest investment banks have ceased to exist as independent firms; Lehman Brothers is bankrupt, and Merrill Lynch hastily sold itself to avoid a similar fate. This week, the financial crisis has gathered an unsettling momentum. Credit markets have seized up in a way that is unprecedented since this credit crisis began over a year ago. Markets are in a state of fear about how many more large financial institutions could fail and what the consequences of this crisis will be on the economy and availability of credit.
The readings registered today from an array of short-term gauges of panic and selling pressure have historically been reliable signals that the market is experiencing a “capitulation,” or selling climax, which leads almost immediately to a strong relief rally at a minimum, and perhaps a lasting market bottom. However, given the extraordinary nature of this crisis, such gauges may not be as reliable. Even though it is (almost) inconceivable that credit conditions could get much worse than they are at present, it is hazardous to commit capital to risk assets until some stability and confidence returns to credit markets and the financial sector.
In my humble opinion, I had thought that the ultimate risk in the S&P 500 was limited to about 1150, with a worst-case scenario of 1100. The S&P 500 closed today at 1156, so we have reached this zone. Hopefully, these levels will hold and we are experiencing the spectacular finale of this bear market and financial crisis. However, after the events of the past several days, and observing the carnage in the financial sector and what has happened to the price of credit, one must objectively acknowledge that the possibility of deeper declines and a more protracted recession and bear market has increased. The situation is obviously extremely fluid and unpredictable. Markets are currently trading much more on emotion than fundamentals. Moreover, the government will undoubtedly continue to come up with new relief measures and rescue packages...
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