A couple of weeks ago or so I opined in a video that a feel good rally could take the market up to about 1310. So we are here now and who knows whether it will keep going (it feels like it but who isn't a sucker for a good story?). I think I was off by a week or so and probably wavered about the feel good rally too but here it probably is.
There seems to be a lot of glee on TV about this so I'll just roll out my typical reminder that feel good rallies are normal, very normal, events within bear markets.
At some point a rally must be the real thing and this could be it I suppose but I really doubt it. The "worst financial crisis..." leading to a very mild bear market does not seem very likely.
Wikinvest Wire
13 comments:
Hi Roger,
I agree this is a bear rally,,however my lotto type entry into the airlines,,UAUA,AMR and LCC
has become something i never expected,i kinda hope oil and gold continue to drop...the world seems so rosey....
Mac
Roger, Please publish your views on the following two old axioms.
1. Don't fight the fed
2. Don't fight the tape
Thanks
Hi Roger, I really enjoy your blog. And, specifically, your thoughts on today's feel-good rally. My shorts are getting whopped, but I'm holding on thinking this is a spring replay. Where do you stand on the double shorts today (srs, skf esp.), if I may ask?
Roger,
I have been reading your blog posts for several weeks and I just wanted to say thank you very much for your time and energy for the educational goals of portfolio management. It is indeed a profession and so many people do not realize that before they attmept to manage their risk in relation to their long term objectives and needs.
btw, i also thought it was so funny watching you enjoy the nostalgic lime tootsie roll.
i think it was the kirkreport that highlighted your blog so positively.
susie
anon,
i have been 2-3% SDS the whole time. it has fluctuated with the market but i have kept the same number of shares.
Susie,
very kind, thank you, the blogging remains fun and satisfying so I stick with it. thanks again
oh and the tootsie rolls are really good.
oh, don't fight the fed don't fight the tape?
if demand for stocks is healthy i want to be about fully invested regardless of the fed or the tape.
i tend to think there are no absolutes and it makes sense that no concept can always be right.
sorry to disappoint but i don't really think in terms of those things.
Many thanks for the reply about SDS. The past few days have been rough for an amateur "navigator" such as myself. Cheers!
I hope your blog is set so that you moderate your comments before they're published. Please google sitemeter, again, with the word 'spyware' this time. I am sad that you are still using a program that'll infest my computer with unwanted spyware.
Now that I have grouched at you, I still visit and enjoy very much your blog.
Melissa
coralreefpainter.blogspot
Roger, I have an idea for a post. What factors should one consider when selecting an investment advisor?
Assume someone agrees with the investment philosophy and general strategy of an advisor. Can you provide some general guidelines on what performance should be expected (long term of course) relative to fees, commissions, and expense ratios? Is there an after-cost Sharpe ratio or some risk adjusted returns an investor should expect?
To play devil's advocate, why shouldn't someone just invest in broadly diversified, low cost index funds?
TomK, that's easy; dark hair and likes sports.
Seriously I am obviously biased so that might be difficult. I'll think about it some, maybe this is good for a video?
Hi Roger,
Not a Q about investing but about your laptop/notebook. You travel extensively and work on the go and definitely need reliable equipment. I am curious as to what machine you use?
I am in the market for a new laptop.
thanks - Richard
in feb 2007 i bought my current lap top a Lenovo Z61t. i solicited reader input, got a couple of brand names to look at from that and went with this one.
Not that it isn't quirky at times but a year and half is pretty good based on past lap tops, knock on wood.
my particalr model is one of the smallest but it has been so long now that the whole numbering scheme might be different now.
To play devil's advocate, why shouldn't someone just invest in broadly diversified, low cost index funds?
One answer to that I think is that it is a perfectly fine alternative to using a professional investment advisor, but realistically speaking how many amateur individual investors are going to stick to the plan (LTBH of broad indices) through thick and thin and perhaps substantial drawdowns, and not essentially capitulate to their emotions and end up spending a lifetime of consistently buying high and selling low and earning SUBSTANTIALLY WELL BELOW the market rate of return. The evidence is clear that most individual investors earn well below actual mutual fund returns because they buy and sell low.
Presumably, using a skilled advisor with control over the emotional aspect of investing will prevent the individual from making this mistake?
http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_insight/2008/08/a-conversation-with-paul.html
Paul is a client. He is a very intelligent entrepreneur with a successful business. He wisely chooses to diversify his principal business by taking profits and investing.
Paul: The market looked terrible. I pulled all of my investments from other funds.
Paul may be intelligent, but I would submit that he is EXACTLY the type that will end up capitulating and selling everything at or near the bottom of this bear market.
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