Wikinvest Wire

Saturday, August 30, 2008

The Big Picture for the Week of August 31, 2008



The video is shot in Pololu Valley which is a few miles east of Hawi (pronounced Ha-vee) at the end of highway 270.

Here is the list of currency ETFs filed for by WisdomTree according to IndexUniverse;

  • WisdomTree Dreyfus Chilean Peso Fund
  • WisdomTree Dreyfus Czech Koruna Fund
  • WisdomTree Dreyfus Hong Kong Dollar Fund
  • WisdomTree Dreyfus Hungarian Forint Fund
  • WisdomTree Dreyfus Israeli Shekel Fund
  • WisdomTree Dreyfus Icelandic Krona Fund
  • WisdomTree Dreyfus Indonesian Rupiah Fund
  • WisdomTree Dreyfus Malaysian Ringgit Fund
  • WisdomTree Dreyfus Mexican Peso Fund
  • WisdomTree Dreyfus Norwegian Krone
  • WisdomTree Dreyfus Polish Zloty Fund
  • WisdomTree Dreyfus Russian Ruble Fund
  • WisdomTree Dreyfus Singapore Dollar Fund
  • WisdomTree Dreyfus Swedish Krona
  • WisdomTree Dreyfus Swiss Franc Fund
  • WisdomTree Dreyfus Taiwan Dollar Fund
  • WisdomTree Dreyfus Thai Baht Fund
  • WisdomTree Dreyfus Turkish Lira Fund
  • WisdomTree Dreyfus BRIC Currency Fund
  • WisdomTree Dreyfus Developed Currency Fund
  • WisdomTree Dreyfus Emerging Asia Currency Fund
  • WisdomTree Dreyfus Emerging Europe Currency Fund
  • WisdomTree Dreyfus Emerging Latin America Currency Fund
  • WisdomTree Dreyfus Gulf Currency Fund
  • WisdomTree Dreyfus Oil Exporters Currency Fund
That is some list.

So as another example of what I saying in the video, if they do actually list the Icelandic krona fund and there is very little interest in the fund the payout stands to be quite high. WT runs into issues with the dividend from the fund not being that close to the index when a lot of assets pour in to that fund.

If they seed the Icelandic krona fund with $X and only one person buys in then the yield is going to be in the teens. Of course the krona could drop in value and if only one person buys in then at some point the fund may close.

It looks like WT filed on August 20. That means the soonest any of these could list is 75 days (my understanding of the process). They didn't file to list none of them but as I said in the video I doubt they will actually list a lot of these.

I can say I would be interested in quite a few of them, they offer interesting potential and would really make the category very thorough. This also makes Taleb's idea of t-bills from around the world with 90% of the portfolio combined with 10% in very risky stuff more easily accessed in a brokerage account.

If they list all of them (again, not what I expect) I would suggest moderation. My idea of going absolutely berserk with these would be to own two of them with modest weightings.

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

Are you still in the UK pound, Roger? It seems to have recently dropped vs the US dollar and has been dropping vs the Yuan for the last year. Also I saw a chartist on Bloomberg highlight on an eight year chart of US$:Euro the recent strengthening of the US dollar to just be a temporary pause to take it back to the longer-term trend, and it's now likely to start weakening pretty soon.

Roger Nusbaum said...

only owned the pound personally not for clients. sold it a short while ago. could have been better could have been worse.

barry said...

when we were contemplating moving to the big island, the drive on 270 was what convinced my wife that this was indeed the place for us. hard to find a prettier part of the world.
aloha from kona

Roger Nusbaum said...

that is very funny.

we have never thought about living in Hilo full time but yesterday on the way to Hawi from Pololu Joellyn looked at me and said she could live up there.

thanks for the comment and greetings to you from Keaau!

Anonymous said...

If I remember right, there's only one river in the whole state of Hawaii. Was that it?

Roger Nusbaum said...

i do not know. over near Honokaa in the Waipi'o Valley we took a picture of a similar scene, also we have paddled up a river of some sort in Kauai, is there maybe some narrow definition of river you are thinking of?

Anonymous said...

Roger,
Your point about the assets and trading volume of a currency ETF affecting its dividend yield is confusing me. With any ETF, all that really matters is the premium/discout the stock is trading at versus the fund's NAV, not the stock's trading volume. So unless you buy the ETF when it's trading at a significant premium to NAV, you should get the underlying currency's short-term interest rate as the dividend yield.

Having said that, there is a real issue with some currencies, but it has nothing to do with the ETF structure or things like trading volume/assets. The problem is that many currencies are non-convertible (e.g., China Yuan), which means that foreigners are not allowed to have bank deposits that earn interest. For these currencies, ETF's must resort to "non-deliverable forward contracts", which don't always accurately track the total return of the underlying currency.
- Adam

Roger Nusbaum said...

many of the WT funds only pay out a div once a year.

as they collect interest or divs throughout the year they are collecting on a certain asset base. that div money piles up. if they collect interest or divs earlier in the year on $10 million in assets but then by the end of the year the fund has $30 million in assets then the actual div of the fund will be way less than what is implied by index yield.

if i am not explaining it clearly, and you own or may own WT funds in the future then you need to call them and have it explained.

Anonymous said...

I have investments in 2 wisdomtree stock etfs, but have not invested in their currency offerings because I prefer to avoid currency funds that invest in derivatives.

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