Well, we are rallying and what do you know, it feels good.Stocks are up, commodities are down and every gas tank is full.
I wrote about this happening right before it started and now it is happening. No clairvoyance whatsoever, or even much in the way of smarts just a good memory of how these things work.
To repeat about how scripted this all has seemed to me; a yet to be fully quantified financial problem predicted by the yield curve, denial of the problem, rolling over of the market, fear that this time is different, eagerness to call the bottom too soon and some feel good rallies (I may take credit for the term feel good rally).
I've mentioned a few times about really trying to remember details of things like the emotions that people go through during these episodes, the market's behavior, the things that tend to work and so on. I think this sort of exercise goes a long way toward helping people keep their heads on straight when the market does turn down.
Long time readers will know my belief in planning ahead for a get defensive strategy but mental preparation along the lines of I have seen this before and this is what happened can be just as important.
3 comments:
Roger,
http://www.2000wave.com/article.asp?id=mwo071108
We are having a banking crisis and associated bear market. The magnitude of the losses are a lot larger than most banking crisis we have experienced. Therefore IMO it is perfectly reasonable and logical to expect the bear market to be larger.
I would like to point out that for you to stick to a "normal" bear market in light of all the evidence from numerous sources then you are taking the position that this time is different and we will have larger banking losses and still not get a larger bear market.
Was there much smoke in Yosemite? It's clearing up pretty good here in the bay area now, but I imagine the Butte fire has been affecting Yosemite.
Not positive about that. We could see the smoke, way way off in the distance. The sky here was not the brilliant blue we have in AZ or that they have in New Mexico.
I do not know if the sky here is not as blue because of some smoke residue or if it just is not as blue.
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