The stock market is up and all is right with the financials.
This is either another feel good rally or the real thing. Anyone very heavy in cash probably needs to have a pretty firm opinion about this.
There are all sorts of reasons to spell out why this is just a feel good rally (my take on the situation) but in terms of know thyself there is a good chance I will think that whenever the real turnaround comes so too much cash becomes a bad idea especially for a long time horizon.
Wikinvest Wire
15 comments:
Your constant need to wonder whether this rally is the "real thing" exposes the short coming in your investment approach...
Picking tops and bottoms is a game for losers.
let's if i have this straight my not knowing if this is a top or bottom reveals a short coming in my approach but if i were to attempt to make that call I'd be a loser?
Your comment is peculiarly contradictory.
roger, the difficulty in picking a top or bottom is legend...
therefore spending any time worrying about it, or basing your investment approach on needing to "call" it, is a fools game.
You must have something better to worry about than whether this is the "real thing"....your odds of being correct are not good...
i am specifically not calling anything.
your thread has no context with this post.
no context?
you specifically talk about cash allocation when the turnaround is real....
what makes you think you can call turns well enough to use that as a tool to make cash decisions?
i doubt that your trading record would show that you enhance returns or minimize risk with the accuracy (or lack thereof) of such market calls...
my track record for being in front of this bear is pretty good.
are you same guy who used to heckle 20 times a day?
Looks to me like a broad-based rally as new money flows in to start the quarter. Even though the financials are reporting lousy news again today, I think so many people want to call the turn that the sector is attracting unusual interest.
I can think of worse moves than committing cash in a market that's down close to 20% even if there's another 10% or so to go. Having said that, I'm going to wait for some confirmation by the moving averages before I get too brave. Then I'll just have to live with the told-you-so-types gloating that the easy money has already been made!
I've been following this blog for almost two years now and never read Roger calling a top or a bottom.
If you've read this blog for any length of time you would know Roger's asset allocation changes are very nuanced. You would also know he had been appropriately position to capture most of the gains of 2006-2007 and has avoided the big losses associated with this latest bear market.
Agreed Rogers moves are rather nuanced, but this site is here to provide info to small investors. I think Roger frequently reminds us not to get carried away (up or down).
This is just one of his helpful friendly reminders to not get whipsawed buy emotion IMO.
Thanks Roger.
The best part of the story is that the rally seems to have come on a Doug Kass April Fool's Day joke in which he announced that he had become a raging bull. How Roger in all his wisdom could not have foreseen that is beyond me ;-} (sarcasm alert). More details at Barry's Big Picture, Internet Hoax Gooses Stock Market. It would be odd if this is what it took to make a bottom but with this market anything is possible.
Like many, I appreciate this blog greatly for what it is, a reasoned, ongoing commentary on investing that focuses more on process then specific market calls. And I like the pictures of dogs.
Jon from NM
I am not turning bullish until spreads get resolved at the very least.
http://tinyurl.com/2jpz68
Look at the A2/P2 less AA nonfinancial at the Fed website.
So me and my cash are not that worried. I am not shorting either because the market could trade in a range for a while although I still think we have room on the downside.
As for being a fool, the last time I was in cash was 2003. I am rather delighted with my portfolio's performance.
SEG
Two cents. I thank Roger and the rest of you for being here for a retired 67 year old whose main objective is to increase my income and assets by a net 4% annum. I have limited experience investing beyond indexed mutual funds and the comments about timing, themes, strategy, economic conditions are appreciated. Sorting out what works and why is still very much a puzzle, which maybe part of the circumstances we find ourselves in, I do not know. I truly enjoy reading and thinking about what is happening in the global market place. Thanks again.
Richard
thanks Richard
Here's a link to information on the April Fool's hoax:
http://tinyurl.com/yt6jqe
Great job Rog as always... screw the hecklers.
IMO, this is a bear market rally. in bear markets you sell the rally. Bull markets start from long bases not from a gigantic bounce off the bottom.
also this the third Tuesday in four weeks that we have a 300+ point move.
each time the move was gone by the end of the week.
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