Proud Member Of
Random Roger
© 2009 | Gadget Theme Blogger Template
Original WPtheme By Blogger Template | Converted By Gadget Lover
| Distributed by eFree Blogger Help
Original WPtheme By Blogger Template | Converted By Gadget Lover
| Distributed by eFree Blogger Help
15 comments:
Great post. You are much clearer and much more honest than most of the talking heads on CNBC.
I still think things will be a worse than you do but not catastrophic.
seg
you know, if we can stay this side of Panzner's scenario, that'd be ok.
Agree with anon, but like I've always said, what is likely to happen makes for boring television. "My prediction Bob, we'll be in a nauseating range as we slowly roll over to a downside."
People want to stay tuned after the break to hear the guy talking about Dow 5,000 and his counterpart who "predicts" Dow 30,000. Not to mention the stocks that are sure fire ways to make you money.
(rant over)
I have started tracking my net worth in foriegn currencies in addition to dollars. I guess I have been somewhat aggressive as I have gone from up from roughly 3.5% to 8.0% for the year from end of jan to end of feb.
But tracked in foreign currencies here are the results.
¥en -2.63%
Euro 1.47%
Can $ 4.60%
U.K. £ 4.52%
AU $ -0.72%
Swiss Franc -3.10%
If I had just been in Swiss francs I would be much better off. I am thinking we need to get out of the dollar for a while.
seg
I have recently moved some money into XLP ( CONSUMER STAPLES), Pimco PCRCX ( commodities to incl AG, Prec Metals, energy,Inds metals, etc. ) and Pcttx (Inflation Tips). My question is, how long can this commodity cycle run and is a bubble being created that will explode soon? These are very confusing times. Sometimes i wonder if it is better to just sit back and watch the up and coming baseball season and let the market do its thing. I think i am just kidding on that point.
BWJR
i don't know if this is a commodity bubble (that word gets used a lot). there is some cyclical justification to account for the last few years but the rate of increase has accelerated which is usually a warning of some sort.
even if the demand supply equation has been altered (which I believe) there is risk in having heavy exposure. if prices retrace 30% over the next two months how much of a hit would your portfolio take? can you stomach that amount?
A 20% weight enduring a 30% hit is about a 7% decline for the portfolio plus if you own anything else that is sympathetic to commodities that might also drop.
Quantify it now and decide now while things are giddy.
Roger,
I own: XLE - 3%, PRTCX - 3%, and
PCRCX - 4%.
BWJR
I am thinking I should consider some kind of hedge for my portfolio. What I don't know is how to do it, buy a short fund on an index S+P500, double short fund, buy puts on the index or some other index and then what? Is there some to hold the hedge for an extended period or better to have a stop loss or if I buy puts, how much and how far for protection. Sorry for rambling on but that's what's going through my mind.
i think you need to read some on options and inverse funds to draw your own.
you will find content articulating why you should do each one which you can then weigh for yourself.
I'm a rather recent devotee of this blog, so apologies if you've covered this before. I gather you believe in top-down portfolio construction (correct me if i'm wrong); but once you settle on a stock, what are the techniques you use to determine when to buy ? I'm referring to things such as an uptick in volume, a stock breaking it's 50-day MA on the upside, stochastic, etc. Or are you simply content that you've selected the correct sector, and so the stock and when exactly to buy is not that important ?
Just posted my models for the week: www.regimenia.com
I still believe we're near A bottom, not THE bottom. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see this bear run until late 2008 or even early 2009.
However, there's a lot of pessimism out there and the bears can't seem to mount an attack strong enough to power through the S&P 500 1310 floor they put in over 6 weeks ago.
My timing model is still sitting on the fence, but the sentiment indicators and my gut is telling me we're due for some upside over the short term.
Btw I'm becoming more and more a believer in my strategy 3 concept. I don't have the data or programming chops to backtest it, but if any of you are interested, let me know.
anon 4:35
the primary driver for my buying a stock or anything else is from the top down that I want to add an exposure or that I have found a better way to capture the same exposure.
The type of entry points you describe seems to be shorter in nature than what I hope to accomplish by buying something. if possible i would prefer to never have to sell something--of course that does not always work out.
if something has gone parabolic i don't think i would think that would be the best way to capture something. similarly i doubt i would bottom fish something that has been crushed like some of the names in this week's Barron's cover story.
example: a while back i swapped a european bank for a chilean bank. the euro bank is down some and the chilean bank is up a little. in that instance i felt the one was a safer exposure but the chart was not a driver in the decision.
i was already underweight the sector from months before and did not want to go more underweight.
Roger,
Since we are moving into this bear market at an accelerated clip (relative to the 2%/month standard), and the key drivers are mortgage resets and collapsing consumer demand, since those drivers are no where near the expected maximum, is this possibly a sign that we are in for more than a normal bear market? Congradulations on your good call for the past several months on the steady drop. Reading you daily provides me with a sane voice in the noise of the internet.
Sam
thanks for the kind word
one aspect of the bear to bull transition (note i am not making a prediction as to when) is that equities should turn up before the fundies imply they should.
stocks s/b a leading indicator. they will just turn up for seemingly no reason and it will catch most people off guard and most people will think it is a head fake.
this is why i don't want to be completely out ever. i won't have to be right about the bottom--worst case i will lag not miss. additionally the move off the real bottom would likely be big and fast.
the sentiment and conditions you cite do not seem worse to me than before. the way i am positioned i don't have to be right about that either. the current positioning is doing what i had hoped for.
Roger,
It looks like the Bespoke guys anticipated your request!
They posted stats on Friday...
:)
Post a Comment