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9 comments:
Roger,
In your opinion, what is the update on the yield curve? Are we more normal or less normal this week compared to last week?? Are we making recognizible progress??
BWJR
The Yahoo Bonds Center has the 13 week at 1.06%, a month ago it was at 2.17%.
Fed funds is at 3% at will be either 2.5, 2.25 or 2.0 after the coming meeting. If it goes to, I dunno, 2.25 and the 13 week can de-panic a tad to 1.75 ish and the rest of the curve stays steep I think the yield curve would then be less of an obstacle however I not faith that scenario in that if it plays out as scripted over the next week or two there will still be another shoe to drop via a writedown, a hedge fund problem, take your pick.
Health in the yield curve restored would be nice but I think time is more important. I'd just like the cycle to run its course over the next few months ( a little longer probably) and then we can move on to the next expansion.
Roger, I really appreciate your humility. I found an article from January, 07, under my bed, from Gene Marcial, Business Week, reccomending BAC at 51, cause it had unfairly been brought down with the other sub'prime suspects. To be fair, the same aritcle also recommended Monsanto at 60. As a pair, I haven't done the math.
Re: Mobile homes I have 12 of them, none costing more than 5k. The low end of the housing market doesn't get much attention. (as an aside, I also have a backhoe for my retirement) How does one send you a personal email? thanks, charlie
thanks for the kind word Charlie.
you can get me at first name dot last name at gmail
Roger:
I met you in October, 2006 arounfd Phantom Ranch on the rim to rim. You were hiking north to south, me and my wife south to north.
I was 46 and 'retired' for 2.5 yrs in lovely Prescott, but now working again in Mystic, CT.
Thanks for doing the blog - I've learned from it. I've managed to avoid too much pain in this downturn and waiting for the magic SP cross of the 200 DMA to start applying my O'Shaughnessy type stock screens and make some money.
Might short a little LEH with a tiny part of capital at the open Monday. I'm reading that they have the most Bear-like portfolio and leverage. Might be a little late, but might make a quick score. Tight stop.
Enjoy life in Walker.
Wayne Schrader
Wayne, yeah, I remember.
Here's the story for everyone else.
Joellyn, her cousin's husband and I are going through Phantom Ranch and someone says "Hey Random Roger." I said "hey Prescott Wayne" which is how Wayne signed his posts. We all chatted for a minute or two and set out on our way.
Joellyn thought that was hysterical.
thanks for leaving the comment, hope all is going well in Connecticut.
thanks again
Good video Roger. I agree, this bear is text book, but you have a good clear-eyed sobriety most market pundits lack.
I just posted my model updates here: www.regimenia.com
It's pretty weird watching a market with almost no sector rotation.
You mention Tobias Levkovich. I'd add Brian Westbury, David Malpass, Larry Kudlow to long list of people who speak about their predictions with such confidence. They are the Caveatless.
Give me a two-handed analyst any day of the week.
can we add Jason Trennert who I believe was not bearish in public until about a month ago. am I wrong about that?
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