Wikinvest Wire

Thursday, February 14, 2008

WKRP

"We want more rock and Les Nessman." Or was that less Nessman. That line from WKRP might be better than Herb's muy dinero line and this is where the investing world may be with Dennis Kneale's constant appearances on The Network.

I met Dennis in late 2004, we did a segment on the Forbes on Fox show together. He is a very nice guy and although some of you will doubt me on this he does know more than a thing or two about how to look at a stock.

Unfortunately for anyone who watches the network they have him commenting regularly, almost exclusively on things that are outside his wheelhouse and his image and credibility are each taking a beating. To use a shaky analogy; a tow truck brings nothing to the table for fighting a wildfire.

On to the questions...

A reader asked about the Accessor Strategic Alternatives Fund (ASAFX) and left a link to the prospectus. It looks like 80% of the fund will go into assets that usually have a low correlation to global stock and bond markets. Sounds good to me but I do not know if the fund is trading, or what they own or much else. Not to be flip but it will either be a viable absolute-ish type fund or not. I will add it to my watch list. I am all for learning about anything but there is never a rush to buy.

There were a couple of comments favorably disposed to the the Claymore fund from yesterday's post that owns it all; UEM. One reader made a point that I can certainly buy into (even if not ideal for what I try to do) which is that used as a starting point an investor could fill in the gaps around UEM and have more time to learn how better to fill in those gaps.

One point I did not quite agree with was that using UEM is a good low cost alternative "for people with small resources to buy a broad, indexed portfolio" and that "it would take at least three or four purchase, each with minimums of several thousand dollars, to get the same effect through Vanguard funds" and finally that it means buying fewer ETFs.

Depending on how limited the resources, Sharebuilder only charges $4 per trade the last time I looked. Starting small does not have to be the barrier to entry it once was and further the implication is younger investors for whom 51% in equities is probably not enough.

Jasper would like to see a global ETF that took in all the stock segments into one fund. He had specific criteria that might be tough to ever find but NortherTrust has filed for the NETS DJ Global Total Market Index Fund. If it ever comes it will have it all but maybe not in the proportion you would like.

One thing though is that no matter what it looks like it will have skews and biases that will at times make a bad hold. My own take is that going so broad (applies to EFA) ends up blending away all the attributes sought.

A couple of different questions came in about the failed auctions and what they mean for different parts of the closed end fund market. I try to minimize the use to sophisticated industry jargon but I don't know how to articulate this without the jargon; the bond market is all messed up.

I do not have all the answers, not even close. The part of this that I know is what I have been writing about for a couple of years. When the yield curve takes on an abnormal slope there will be fallout--that I know. What I don't know is how to assess where and when various fixed income segments will be impacted.

The current abnormalization (how about that one?) seems longer than usual and this failed auction business is a new shoe to drop, it makes sense to expect more shoes. I have never been a fan of widespread CEF use. There are some segments where CEFs are, for now, the best tool but the muni funds and the preferred stock funds have a habit of not hanging in there when you need them most. Some CEFs use auctions to access liquidity (this is how they leverage) so if some auctions, related or not, fail then CEFs could be guilty by association or because they really are directly impacted.

14 comments:

Fred said...

"As God is my witness, I thought turkeys could fly."

Anonymous said...

Doesn't futures for individual stocks close on Thursday close and futures for indexes like the S&P close on Friday open?

So I guess they need the S&P even lower for the open. I am sure things will not be better later in the day.

Still not cynical just realistic

gjg49 said...

roger,
i agree that the bond market is all messed but that gives investors opportunity. for example, how do i buy some of that 20% paper that the port authority issued?? that is partially a rhetorical question as i am not at all familiar enough with the auction rate market and its nuances--for example, is that 20% annualized for only 7 days or something like that?? having asked these questions, can anyone refer us toward a blog that addresses anomalies and trends in the fixed income markets??

Stephen Drone said...

I don't know much about the fixed income market, and I'm not one to request posts - but is it worth a post or 2 for you to explore wackiness in the current fixed income market in a "here's what's going on" type of explanation?

I only buy them through ETFs or funds; apparently my father-in-law purchased individual bonds and liquidating them from his estate has been a problem.

Anonymous said...

I'd also like to better understand the forces that affect closed-end fixed rate stocks. I own two California municipal bond closed-end stocks, VCV and PZC. Over the last two days plus within today's third trading hour the two stocks are down 6.98% and 7.92%, respectively. This appears to establish a significant discount to net asset value, unless the asset value has been impacted by the monoline insurance industry problems or ??? Even if the monoline insurance companies go under the municipal bond default rate will not come close to these percentages. Is this a speculative buying opportunity?

Roger Nusbaum said...

Fred, that one takes the cake, rofl.

anon i either don't know or don't remember when single stock futures settle.

gjg49, here is one post with a little more detail excerpted from Paul Krugman. also a blog in my links list below called Accrued Interest might be a place to look.

anon 9:04, the NAV of VCV fell 1.5% while the market price fell by a much bigger number. the nav for PZC fell by a very small number compared to the market price.

in trying to speculate on this you are trying to game the future emotional (or lack there of) response in the market to bad or good news. that is especially difficult in this sort of envrionment.

my bias in these matters is conservative to grain of salt what i am saying.

Anonymous said...

Yes, the AccruedInterest site, accessible from Roger's blog roll, is a very good source for issues in the fixed income markets. It is written by a fixed income professional but is, for the most part, understandable for the "layman". This layman reads it regularly.

Roy said...

anon 9:04, you are seeing additional volatility in those two funds as a result of their ~35% leveraged portfolios. You might compare them against something like NXC, which is not leveraged (much lower expenses, too).

gjg49 said...

roger,
thanks for the references.
among many other positive attributes, your willingness to either comment on questions (such as those from anon 9:04) or to point people in the right direction (as in response to my question) makes this one of, if not the best, financial blogs around. your other readers and their helpful comments also make this more interesting than most blogs.

Anonymous said...

Anon 9:04--Check out cefa.com for answers to your questions. You can also learn a lot by frequenting the Morningstar forum board on CEFs.

Anonymous said...

http://tinyurl.com/2kknxq

You have to view the power point slides on Barry's web site. Accurate, simple, and had me in tears laughing.

jimidean said...

good article on closed end funds

http://tinyurl.com/2hodkf

Anonymous said...

Roger

Just wanted to say I enjoy your insights and thoughts on the markets.

Also, I agree the market is headed down a little more. My guess another 20% when all is done and said. I do feel that this market will not recover for atleast another 5 years when one factors in inflation. Just my guess. I went out of the market in Decmeber.

Continued success!

Art Dunbar said...

John Maldin's weekly e-letter discusses the municipal bond market volatility / monoline insurance / Warren Buffet's offer in detail:

http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/gateway.asp?ref=reprint

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