The short answer is no.
The longer answer is that if you have read this blog for a while you have probably noticed that most of the posts are very reactionary. Most of them are either about something I just read, an opinion about current market events, a reader question, a new product or something to do with investment process.
Charles Kirk and Trader Mike (the permalink does not work, scroll down to the post called Balance & Options) each have posts up that offer some introspection about their blogging and how it jibes with their trading. Both guys have fantastic sites and devote far more time to blogging than I do. Most posts take less than half an hour to 45 minutes and even then I have one eye on the teevee and may detour to read something. Answering questions that come in throughout the day take about a minute or two and it all easily fits into what my wife says is a 75 hour week.
So when I mention an ETF I am doing so because I found it somewhere (most likely IndexUniverse or from Tom Lydon) and thought it might be of interest to readers. Ones that are of interest to me for possible use for clients, which is not that many, get added to MyYahoo page and I watch them. For example the three ag/soft commodity ETF/ETNs have all been of interest.
The way it goes I might decide at some point to do something on a widespread basis with, for example, nuclear/uranium (for now just a couple of clients have exposure to this theme). First the top down decision of wanting exposure gets made. From there what is the best way to not only capture the theme but also integrate it into client portfolios. Buying a uranium miner might mean selling something else so there is not too much exposure to materials. Maybe one of the Japanese industrials that are in the Market Vectors Nuclear Fund (NLR), if so, do I want Japan and if I do do I need to sell another industrial? Maybe the fund itself, NLR, is the best way to go. It is heaviest in miners and industrials so buying it might mean making a little room in both sectors.
This is just an example but illustrates why I am not a fan of all-ETF, or all-one-particular-thing portfolios. If you decide you want a specific theme you then also need to decide the best way for you to capture that theme. It makes no sense that the best way to capture every theme is always the same type of product.
Back to the reader's question, if you want my input on an ETF regardless of whether I have mentioned it before feel free to ask. I'm not going to give you a buy, sell or hold on it but I do answer most questions either back in the comments or in a devoted post.
Unfortunate news from the racing world. The 2008 Dakar Rally was canceled because of threats from terrorist organizations.The Versus Network (it will always be OLN to me) will be showing highlights from the 2007 race for the next couple of weeks. If you have never seen the Dakar it is worth checking out once.
There are three classes; motor cycles, cars and trucks like the ones pictured to the left.
5 comments:
Thanks for your thinking on ETFs, Roger. I've learned the hard way that I'm not a very good (read impatient) stock picker, so I tend to embrace ETFs to avoid the risk of my stocks imploding. I've also read elsewhere about the 70-20-10 rule--that 70% of a stock's movement is due to the market, 20% to the sector, and 10% to comapny specific events. I'm not sure that's true, but if so, I feel like ETFs get me 90% of the way home with lower risk. I'm not talking here about broad index funds but sector funds.
70/20/10 is why top down exists.
obviously it is not right 100% of the time (nothing is) but the sector calls that one can get correct, the more tailwinds they create for themselves.
that should say the more sector calls
would there be room in the blog discussion for your process and thinking about how you would approach the market when the current portion of this business cycle is complete and the next expansion is at hand, ie. adding volitility, sector rotations, yield curve observations ect. iam interested to see if your triggers are the same both coming and going comcerning the 200day moving average?
Roger,
Actually, the truck shown in the pic appears to be a support vehicle. Since the bulk of the event is in the middle of "nowhere", mechanics and spare parts tag along...although "tag" might not be the best description, since they have to run at 90/100 mph to come even CLOSE to keeping up with the vehicle they're "supporting".
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