Welcome back to SPX 1500.During the decline I had several posts saying that it was a fast decline and that fast declines snap back by some measure before really doing anything else.
I said this was no different than other fast declines and it wasn't.
The point here is not a self back pat because there was no analysis. To repeat what I said before when you think it is different it isn't. Panics, which is what we had, behave the same way even if the magnitude and duration vary.
This is simply how it works.
There are only two outcomes on the table. Either the event is completely over or the market is giving you plenty of time to get out by rolling over slowly. I say slowly because we are down about 1.25% from the high about two months after the high was set.
I tend to lean bearish, but as I have chronicled many times I have not made any extreme bets and while I lagged the huge move yesterday I have participated nicely in the bounce off the bottom.
I am trying to convey a layer of simplicity that can embed into how you manage your portfolio. There was nothing new about anything in this episode and this type of episode will repeat over and over.
Thanks for all the kind words on the Hookie Lau post.
20 comments:
Any thoughts on the recent Fortune magazine article on MIC that was posted to CNN.com.
have not seen it--not on Yahoo Finance yet, you can leave a link.
I would ask is it actually MIC or more about Jim Chanos shorting the IB--MBL.AX on yahoo?
Roger,
Did you get Volcano Insurance?
Anyone have a Gold-Recession Chart...?
Anyone Anyone...Bueller? Anyone?
we are in lava zone 3 so lava not a realistic issue. i don't have that chart--check with Bespoke.
Roger,Do you like DBA or the new MOO here?
Roger
RE my question on agri etf's-Is this a way to get long wheat, or is there some other way for a small investor to do this?
no idea what is the best, that would change over time.
DBA is the commodities. So the weak dollar play comes into effect, maybe it hedges maybe not (I own a little and have it for a couple of clients so I do lean favorably).
MOO is th stocks. If this is a hot area I would think the stocks should benefit but it stocks so less protection than a sack of rice, humor attempt.
It depends on what you want that decides what is better.
DBA is the ETF to use.
I know either one of us are in the prediction market, but I referred to this as "crashing up". Like you state, things haven't really changed. Is the fed lowering saving everything? Did it make it all better? I don't believe so (although I don't think it was that bad to begin with). I'm just as leery of crashing up as I am crashing down.
Time to lever up the margin accounts for the big surge to new highs. I would be a buyer here and right now.
Roger,
I want to thank you for being wrong the past 6 weeks.
Every time you post (or should I say "regurgitate") something bearish, I buy more.
When you bought the double short fund, I knew it was time to back up the truck.
Rog, baby, you are the best!
Roger,
Re: MIC I saw a link to the article in Tom Au's posting to Real Money columnist conversation on 9-18 at 10:36 am.
i saw that post. i don't know what he had in mind exactly but he referenced MIC and he had details that pertain to MBL.AX.
Rog,
When you decide to sell your double short position because its so deep in the red, let me know.....
it will a sure sign the market is topping.....
thanks again.
heckler: our host is mr. cool, mr unemotional....you must be blind to not notice this attribute. This has got to be the last blog in the blogosphere to fish for contrarian sentiment. Accountant/engineer types hang out here except for a few nut cases. Good concept, wrong fishing hole.
jasper
Here is a good article on market volatility on Yahoo:
http://tinyurl.com/yv63f6
Yo Jasper,
The question about selling the double short fund is serious....
Rog bought it as a defensive move on a technical indicator....
Rog loves to preach about having a plan....well, what is the plan now that the market has moved up?
Will Rog hold on to the double short (with significant losses), and at what point does he throw in the towel?
Sincerely, the heckler
Wonder what the Dow was at when the picture was taken? What a remarkable economy we have been blessed with over time.
Heckler,
your quite a dick
J
Hey Heckler; if you're such a know-it-all, why don't you tell us what the future holds?
And don't you know that the market is still below it's historic high that we saw this summer? So then Roger's buying of the double shorts when the DOW dropped 2k points did help to stabilize his portfolio and even through the recent climb back up. So what's the problem?
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