In the all encompassing Greenspan blitz he made one comment that resonated with me which was that he could see the ten year treasury yielding 8% at some undefined point in time but I think he was talking over the next couple of years.
This is consistent with a point I have been making for a long time (here is one instance I mentioned it but there have been many others) which is that there is visibility for slightly higher rates resulting in a little slower growth and slightly lower equity returns over longer periods of time.
My thoughts were more like the ten year in the sixes but 8% is a number that falls with in the range of historically normal.
The investment impact would be that bonds become more attractive. I don't necessarily know that it means we should own more bonds so much as it become safer to extend maturities. For equities it probably means we need to learn more than we currently know about investing in foreign stocks.
Proud Member Of
Random Roger
© 2009 | Gadget Theme Blogger Template
Original WPtheme By Blogger Template | Converted By Gadget Lover
| Distributed by eFree Blogger Help
Original WPtheme By Blogger Template | Converted By Gadget Lover
| Distributed by eFree Blogger Help
5 comments:
Will the 10 year hit 3.5% or 6.0% first? I'm guessing the lower first. Tom in Indy
tomk:
Taking a liking to your notion of strategy diversification, S=1 and S-3 strike me as being in the camp of relative strength;and, S-2...as long as it gets rebalanced..is neutral to slightly favoring value. Is this a fair characterization? Do you think that a strateg more value based(buy low sell high) would add to strategy diversification?
jasper(reposted from late saturday, my apologies)
Ten year will hit 6% first anon 1.
One guess is as good as another.
A diversified stock, bond and real estate portfolio that provides dollar and international currency income exposure should accomodate all but the most violent investment shocks.
Heck....guys....he's just selling books. Gotta have a catch ya know?
Post a Comment