Proud Member Of
Random Roger
© 2009 | Gadget Theme Blogger Template
Original WPtheme By Blogger Template | Converted By Gadget Lover
| Distributed by eFree Blogger Help
Original WPtheme By Blogger Template | Converted By Gadget Lover
| Distributed by eFree Blogger Help
24 comments:
Roger,
what about REITs, especially nondomestic or global reits? They have come down quite a bit; the yields are (of course) up and they usually are tied to a "must have" (versus discretionary) for businesses and families?
Mortgage Reits would have to be given really close scrutiny, I guess, to be sure how their financing activities will stand up to the current situation....
I wish there were more transparent and easy ways to access single country real estate markets, like Aust. and Scandinavia, and Eastern Europe.
I have never liked mortgage REITs (written this many times) and other REITs only in moderation. So many people tell us to have huge percentage in them and I have always thought that wrong. A little exposure, generally 3% or so for my tastes, but not a lot.
As for foreign I have studied four foreign REITs but have not bought. I can see swapping my domestic for foreign at some point but the recent listing of so many foreign REIT funds makes me think I should wait a while.
Thanks for the informative video Roger. Do you have any experience
with sector rotation funds? I have
been reading up on XRO...they also
have a global rotation fund CRO
which does not include BRIC.
take care:-)
Difficult times judging which way this economy rolls. I think the Fed doesn't want to move on rates (even after that dismal number yesterday) but they have to. 50bp ?? Maybe, but I think Big Ben goes 25bp's and tells us he is watching the situation very closely. Either way I do not see it have a real impact on the situation but rather an acknowlegement that they are aware of the situation. good post as always.
I own both CRO and XRO. Careful with CRO, it is extremely thin. Also, they're pretty heavily weighted in Europe which isn't really great if you're looking for something non-correlated to the U.S. So far it has underperformed VWO.
I also like XRO as a small part of my portfolio. It has outperformed the S&P 500 since inception, but also is a bit more volatile. We'll see how it behaves in a sustained down market.
Good luck.
I think the chances of a recession at this point in much of the rest of the world are lower than in the US. So maybe one should look at the balance between companies with mainly US domestic exposure and the converse?
Here is a link from The Big Picture that I bookmarked recently, and very apropos this discussion about cycles:
http://tinyurl.com/2pe65q
It mirrors well what Roger discussed in his video.
Reducing volatility and increasing yield to ride out the storm????
I guess I am going to have to stop calling you complacent.
I know buying foreign currencies seems smart, but I am not so sure about this one. The dollar is at lows and if there are problems in the market the US will be viewed as a safe haven and I suspect the dollar may rise. Although I am not as sure about this as I am equities will tank. Longer term I certainly agree with you the dollar is in trouble vs most currencies.
Thanks Roger but I need some good stock picks to get my portfolio out of the red...
Sharon.
If you are interested in investing in international REITs, you may want to consider Fidelity's FIREX. But I believe that Fidelity has just changed the manager of the fund. That happens when a fund manager at Fidelity does well. He/she gets promoted.
http://tinyurl.com/35rmot
EGLRX is also supposed to be good.
In these days of real estate woes it might be a good idea to let professionals with good research do the REIT picking for you like a mutual fund manager.
But I would wait until at least early next year to evaluate the sector and let the dust settle before buying into this sector.
If you are chasing yields, DRF is in at over 20% now, but these individual holdings are risky. I also read in Yahoo Finance that a poster didn't receive his dividend in August. At least it wasn't shown on his E-Trade account.
I would stay away from mortgage REITs like IMH though all together.
If you do buy some individual REITs, I would slowly buy in now.
Down over 20% on Friday. I never should have levered my account with 20 ES contracts. Damn these swings that kill my account.
Are you sure about DRF? ETFconnect.com has it at .20%?
Rick C
"Down over 20% on Friday. I never should have levered my account with 20 ES contracts. Damn these swings that kill my account."
What is an ES contract?
Are you investing or gambling?
Did you ever consider it was YOU not the market swings that were killing your account?
I know I am only a fool who does not know what an ES contract is and only buys ETFs and mutual funds but I am up 14% this year.
It is a future S P contract.
how the hell are you up 14% without taking big risk?
Models this week:
Timing Model=1.5
80% long, 20% cash
Global Allocation of Long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 30%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 40%
Top U.s. Sectors
U.S. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 5.5
U.S. Oil & Gas 5.0
U.S. Technology 5.0
U.S. Leisure Goods 4.0
U.S. Semiconductors 3.5
Composite Internet 3.0
U.S. Health Care 2.5
Precious Metals 2.5
Small Cap Growth 2.5
Top Intl. ETFs
FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund 3
MSCI South Korea Index Fund 3
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 3
MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund 3
MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund 3
MSCI Taiwan Index Fund 2
S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund 2
MSCI Germany Index Fund 2
MSCI Pacific ex-Japan Index Fund 2
MSCI Mexico Index Fund 2
MSCI Malaysia Index Fund 2
A slight improvement in one of my 4 trend indicators + rising sentiment from OS conditions has boosted my model to a 80% long exposure. Note, this could reverse quickly so I wouldn't get too excited, but I'm still encouraged by the wide spread gloom and doom I'm hearing.
Big Picture: Growth has decidedly replaced Value as the style leader. Large vs. Small hasn't been a big factor. Emerging is still the momentum leader, followed by EAFE. The U.S. market is beginning to gain some relative strength but is still an underperformer compared to the foreign markets.
Will the Fed cut? Is a recession around the corner? I don't know or don't care. Trends and momentum tell the story. I don't want to be a hero - I'm content to be a follower.
I just calculated my gain/loss YTD (for my TAA and Buy and Hold strategy). I was amazed to see I am up 11.59% YTD.
Anon 3:44.
You are right. I meant DFR, not DRF. Sorry for the typo.
Strategy 3:
EAFE 16.7%
Emerging Markets 16.7%
Money Market 16.7%
Industrial Materials 16.7%
Agriculture 16.7%
Precious Metals 16.7%
U.S. Large Cap 0.0%
U.S. Small Cap 0.0%
U.S. Long Bonds 0.0%
U.S. REITs 0.0%
I calculated my gains for the year also, up 19.4% or about 400k. Great year so far for this retiree. FXI really accounted for most of my gains though. Good luck the rest of the year y'all.
The emphasis on adding yield,and reaching out for foreign bonds seem to be excellent ideas. Perhaps adding the spice of tax advantaged yields with LPs in the pipeline area, or even some GMAC Smart Notes with a four year or less maturity date may be of interest to investors at this time.
nice gains both anon's.
Thank you, Anonymous, for the foreign real estate fund names. I am waiting till later this fall to buy anything except maybe double shorts....
But I'm researching NOW to have a "bargain priced pick list" for future gains.
This Yahoo article on ETFs' recent performance was informative....
http://biz.yahoo.com/ifunds/070907/
20070907_performance_com_etf_wm.htm
l?.v=1
Thank you, Roger, as always. I sure wish foreign bonds (especially government bonds) were "ETF-ified" more distinctly.
There must be some reason they are not, wonder what it is?
14% mostly from heavy foreign ETF and mutual fund exposure combined with selling everything in early July.
Heavy cash can be viewed as a big bet but not high risk at the moment IMO.
Post a Comment