Wikinvest Wire
Wednesday, August 15, 2007
Everybody Run!
This sums up the day with about 30 minutes to go. Everything started out just fine and then the homecoming Queen goes berserk.
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This sums up the day with about 30 minutes to go. Everything started out just fine and then the homecoming Queen goes berserk.
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13 comments:
So do when do we have a Dow 13000 celebration on CNBC????
I would guess that her gun is a good metaphor for this market's volatility. What should only have six bullets has unlimited bullets instead.
My double shorts that I bought on 7/30 are up now 6.42% on average though. (SDS, QID, SRS, TWM)
Fire away!
I keep forgetting it is only money
Bad news is this is going to get a lot worse than what we have already seen
I sold out of most of my mutual funds today as I cannot afford to lose this much money every week. I am happy with 5.05% from an online savings bank account. I can't believe all the people who were saying everything was rosy just last month. The hedge funds are dumping everything and going short. Just look at the volume on any index fund and you will see. Time to bail people, I did.
Better to sell 9% down than 19 or 29% down.
Try not to concentrate on the current losses, but try to concentrate on all the gains you made by not being rattled out of equities every 4 or 5% down turn.
5% return is not inspiring, but trust me losses are much worse.
As I stated in my post above, there is money to be made in down markets as long as you know it's going to last for a while.
The next Fed meeting isn't for a month. And most analysts don't think that the Fed will lower interest rates until at least their meeting at the end of October.
The next big market news that could possibly help the market will be on Sept. 7 when the employment numbers are released. If unemployment is up the market could get a boost since economists will think that the Fed will view this as a harbinger for a recession and then act by lowering interest rates in their September meeting.
So I see no reason to sell my double shorts until as least then. In fact I'm going to increase my position on them tonight. I'm in 90% cash and 10% double shorts now. I went to cash a month ago, and shorts on 7/30. I may go to 15-20% short since the loan loss info is still coming in slowly.
I also am noticing that the bulk of the recent market losses are coming in in the last hour or two in the trading day. Everyone is selling any strength that they can discern in this market. And that's bad folks!
Some noteworthy levels in key markets indicators were hit today. The NYSE McClellan Summation Index closed at -2585; a level not seen since the lows of 2002. The % Stocks Above 40-Day Moving Avg hit 7.7%; a low not seen since 2002. The New High/ New Low Ratio slid to 0.23; a level not seen since 1994. I am not saying this is the bottom, but several indicators are at levels typically seen near major lows. I think we are getting close to outright capitulation. When it happens, I hope I have the gonads to buy.
Greg, great numbers and introspection.
thank you
THE NASDAQ WILL RETURN TO 1900 LEVELS, DJIA 10500,S&P 1080 SOUND SCARY, WAKE UP BABY WHERE THERE IS SMOKE, THERE'S FIRE AND WE'LL NEVER KNOW HOW BAD THIS REALLY WAS FORGET ABOUT MOVING AVERAGES, IF YOU'VE BEEN WATCHING THE NEW HIGH/LOWS THERE AREN'T MANY NEW HIGHS THIS BULL IS DEAD AND RALLY'S ARE ONLY SHORT COVERING WAKE UP AND READ BETWEEN THE LINES, THIS GREAT ECONOMY IS B.S. HOUSING/AUTOS/RETAIL HAVE BEEN BAD FOR AWHILE WALK INTO ANY CAR DEALER AND WHAT DO YOU SEE, SALEMANS STANDING AROUND, REALTORS SIGNS ON 4 SALE PROPERTIES ARE BEING ROTATED. WHY ARE WE IN IRAQ ? OIL AND JOBS NO PULLOUT IN THE NEAR FUTURE
This blog was a lot more fun when we were making fun of the sell everything guy.
Actually I think that this present blog chat is fun.
I really laughed at the shouting post just above yours. But I'm so sure if "the end is nigh" is still a hoot though. (LOL. I guess it still is) But that's because I'm in cash & double shorts.
But as Greg pointed out; when to get back in is the key. I would say at mid-October at the latest we should be buying on the dips. The Fed should be lowering interest rates at the end of that month I would guess.
I'm sure most of you big dummies (and I say that with jest) have read one Livermore book at some point.
DO NOT FIGHT THE TAPE!!!
Why would you? Exit and come back when the market shows a favorable condition. My pillow is stuffed with cash and I will sleep well tonight.
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