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20 comments:
6% YTD with 50% market exposure. 10% YTD with 80% market exposure(heavy in international). 3% YTD with 20-30% market exposure(too conservative?)
Approx +5% YTD in the strategic portfolio which is widely diversified and strongly hedged; +39% in the tactical portfolio mainly on a few non-diversified plays (mostly shorts) that worked out extremely well (they don't always lord knows).
OT but does anyone know of a list of international or global funds (CEF, ETF, OEF) that use a call writing strategy? I use an options approach to buying and selling individual stocks and many of the domestic funds that use the strategy have good performance characteristics but am having trouble identifying outfits such as BWC that use the approach for offshore markets.
Unfortunately I am down for the year a little. Too many CEF's has hurt me. Fortunately I made up a lot of ground over the last week. I am one of those people who has to do it himself. I don't trust having my money managed with anyone else. I have done pretty well over the years but am overdoing things over the last year with the CEF/ETF's.
Up 13.2% in USD terms and 7.6% in AUD terms. 62% of net assets in Australian Dollar denominated assets, 28% USD denominated, rest in unhedged global funds.
Up for the year but below the S&P. I had severall stocks that sold when they broke their trailing stops during market volatility. I wish they hadn't because I missed the upside.
It's tough to set stops with this tape.
1.35% ytd....with 50% in equities....kept this allocation until June when I decided to allow all cash to be deployed. From poor management, I was as high as 13% in July. Personally, not satisfied at all with results nor my process...but learning. Had an excellent plan but allowed myself to deviate. Reasonable to think that many could be 15-20 percent up for even a large combined portfolio of different strategies. I'm impressed with what some may be yielding even what hedges and heavy cash.
In all my accounts, down 1.2% YTD. Down more in some, up in one. I set my stops too tight this spring, and also did too much trading. I would have been ahead otherwise. I resolved to do less trading and to tough-out the recent crunch, and many of my individual stocks did better than my ETFs. Sold a few shares of EM ETFs, and some SLX, after they got hit hard. Now they are going up almost as fast as they went down. When the next decline hits I will lighten up some more.
Roger. Enjoyed the video, and a good question. Using Yahoo! Finance numbers, I calculate the S&P 500 to be (1479.37-1418.30)/1418.30 = +4.31% for the period 12/29/06 (last trading day of 06) thru 8/24/07. I assume the S&P 500 number does not include dividends? My total return for the same period is +7.18%; calculated by subtracting this year's contributions from the current portfolio value, and comparing this number to the end of year 06 value. Glad you did not ask this question last week, as I would have been about 3% lower. JCarr
What would people here recommend for a good discount brokerage firm? I have about 156K from a 401K that I need to roll over soon.
I'm not as interested in the low cost of the trade as much as I am in low transfer and maintenance fees on mutual fund buys (I also buy stock & ETF's). And I want to be able to buy from any fund company without being raked over the coals for mutual fund buys like in my existing Fidelity account where they add on such fees.
I am considering Ameritrade. Thanks.
Vanguard's S&P index fund VFINX is up 5.48% year to date.
So either Anon 11:07's numbers are off, or Vanguard is not tracking the S&P correctly.
Response to 11:13 post. I am the Anon 11:07. I suspect the Vanguard S&P 500 index includes dividends, which my S&P 500 calculation did not; ergo, the difference. JCarr
Flat for the year to date. Leveraged CEFs in converts/preferreds and floaters have pulled me down, as well as several small positions in sectors that all went south sharply(energy, materials, metals, etc.) Most are snapping back smartly, as Roger blogged yesterday.
Roger--
Your comments about another leg down (which I'm actually hoping for) as well as your views on a recession imply that you've not switched from defensive mode in your approach to portfolio management. You've blogged about identifying a financial stock to add when that sector turns, yet the SPY is above its 200 dma, DIA never really penetrated the 200 dma, and central bankers everywhere are (quite arguably) watching the store. What will cause you to become more sanguine?
Anonymous said...
"What would people here recommend for a good discount brokerage firm? I have about 156K from a 401K that I need to roll over soon."
I was with TDWaterhouse for a long time, and very happy with it overall. Then they "improved" their web page, which I hated. Then they merged with Ameritrade. Then TDAmeritrade drove me absolutely nuts with their new web page(s). If you are into computer gaming, and interactive garbage it may be to your liking.
I moved my two accounts from there, plus two others from BuyandHold.com (which has no funds, and is weak on ETFs and getting better, but may be just right for you otherwise) and transferred it all to ScotTrade. I like their interfaces, visual presentations, and menu arrangements. I like it more as I use it more. They keep it simple... so far. The big thing is that if you are trading, they keep you from getting into trouble with "free ride" errors - TDA will just send you a notice after the fact that you made an error, and tell you you can't trade anymore for 90 days or whatever. They don't seem to care; and to make it worse, their manner of presenting current balances can lead you into making such errors, so you have to track buys and sells on paper to be safe. My move to ScotTrade was a blessing.
Just call their local office and ask about costs. They won't get in your face - you may be happily surprised with the answers you get.
People who actively manage their portfolios should think carefully about both a) what are the right benchmarks to use when measuring their performance and b) how are they personally going to evaluate risk. A lot of investment commentary assumes that people compare their performance to the S&P 500, and that their notion of risk is closely related to market volatility and/or risk of underperforming the S&P 500 on a calendar year basis. But individuals, particularly one's managing portfolios actively in search of outperformance, should decide for themselves what their benchmarks and measures of risk should be.
Relevant example - at the start of 2007, lots of market commentators were advising people to stay out or lighten up on emerging markets because they had gone up a lot in prior years and because they were "risky". That advice turned out to be bad so far, but was it sensible? IMO, discussion about whether a market is too frothy needs to be based on fundamentals, not price appreciation, while the claim about risk is only relevant to people who are measuring risk wrt volatility and S&P comparisons.
1.8% YTD with 10% cash, 30% stocks, 60% funds (no bonds). I prefer to look to our 3 yr gain of 28%. All my investing is DIY. I much prefer Scottrade. Great company! Thanks to you Roger and other most excellent bloggers I've stopped the panic in and out moves.
I'm not sure the comment was "harsh", but I did not address that person with regard to luck because they sounded a bit sour and I didn't want things to become counterproductive. Since you mentioned it in your video wrapup (which I enjoyed, by the way), I thought I'd address the "luck" piece of the comment. I will agree that I was lucky but lucky along the lines of a good poker player (and I stink at poker, by the way). Tight poker players will wait until things are technically in their favor before putting themselves at risk. When I bought, I felt I was dealt an ace/king. If the market continued to fall, I would've considered more along the lines of pocket aces and as a result, put more at risk. Does this mean that my hand is untouchable and I can't lose? No. But I feel over time, increasing bet size when historically things went your way is one method to ultimately come out on top. This time I was greedy when the masses were fearful. It's not going to work every time, and it panned out this time. That doesn't mean it will the next. So, yes, I was lucky.
Mutual fund with ML. 72% fixed income, 18% cash, and 10% equities of which 3% are international.
Very consertive!! Is it recession proof???????????
Thanks to Anon 1:04 & 2:08. I will look into Scottrade.
Down 4% yr to date on my retirement account managed by Goldman. The volatility in the account has been huge recently. Structured in 90% equities/ 10% cash.
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