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8 comments:
Jim Rogers is a bright and seasoned gentleman. His career certainly shows that he looks out for #1.
Apparently, Jimmy is wise enough to know that if he makes numerous predictions with witty soundbites and stakes out worldwide electic markets for commentary, the few times he actually is correct will negate the less successful moves he has made since leaving Soros' bandwagon.
Mr. Roger's "neighborhood" seems to turn on a dime too often for my taste.
Jimmy is monumentally unreliable about US politics, so there he can serve as a negative indicator.
However, when he was teamed with George Soros, they were unbeatable. Jim says openly that he discovered that though he often got the trends right, he was hopeless about timing. So if you're ever inclined to put money into one of his predictions, settle in for a LONG ride.
Rogers may be right...and he may be wrong. I have a fundamental problem with people who make timing decisions based on non-mechanical gut-instinct. They tend to be wrong more often than right because their egos get in the way of reason.
So Rogers just rolls out of bed one day and says "I'm going to dump all my Emerging Market positions"?
I love this one: "I'm hoping when the next big correction comes I'm smart enough to buy some of them back." Why would you "hope" Jim?
You can critique him all you want, and some points are valid, but the following doesn't make it.
"Jimmy is monumentally unreliable about US politics"
Perhaps he cannot predict the micro future of Am. politics. But he is right about US politics dragging the dollar down along with the rest of America.
"I have a fundamental problem with people who make timing decisions based on non-mechanical gut-instinct"
He has published many books outlying a macro value type approach to investing.
Sure he is wrong about the future on several occasions. Who is not? He would be the first to tell you that. At least he is different than the other android pundits you usually hear.
He has also been right on commodities and china for a long time. Assuming he cuts his losses and rides his winners, his performance is probably pretty good.
The problem is it doesn't sound like Rogers "cuts his losses and rides his winners". It sounds more like he's making a prediction. That's when these guys usually run into trouble.
Check out this performance chart: http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/perf.html?$RUA,$IEE,$MSEMF
If you have even the slightest belief that momentum leads performance, why would you dump Emerging Markets?
Or look at it this way:
http://tinyurl.com/29vnfq
http://tinyurl.com/29odpy
Why not wait for at least some evidence that the trend might be reversing?
In the end Rogers may be right, but it seems like he's making a big bet - picking a top vs. going with the flow.
He drove around the world in a big yellow mercedes, looking for places to invest money, and wrote a book about it. And thats supposed to be an adventure?
I think there is something wrong with people that scour the world for places to make a buck without caring about the consequences of their actions (on society, on the environment, etc).
If Roger's is right, would DBA be a bet?
maybe on the DBA. I have owned it for a while but there is an aspect of it being the only game in town and it is not perfect.
I wouldn't jump in just based on what any one person says.
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