It snowed here yesterday and is currently 34 degrees.If you are interested in the Berkshire Hathaway meeting the MarketBeat blog has a pretty good run down of it.
Barry Ritholtz has a funny post up with a bunch colossally wrong quotes like "The concept is interesting and well-formed, but in order to earn better than a 'C,' the idea must be feasible," which was from the Yale professor who poo-poohed Fred Smith's (Fedex founder) idea for overnight delivery.
This really speaks to perception of things and that many things that we assume to be true will end up not being true. This is a fascinating topic.
One sort bearish thought that I don't think I have heard elsewhere is that despite there being no shortage of bullish opinion, there was also no shortage of bullish opinion in March 2000. I would bet that before any big turn there is no shortage of bullish opinion but what is concerning (not a new thing) is the lack of thought and planning for a big turn.
This doesn't change that big turns happen slowly giving plenty of time to get out. And for now the trend does seem to be good meaning the market is not yet building in real trouble. I guess the thing to watch out for is a small decline that does not scare or hurt people that the talking heads can easily justify and spin away.
The picture is from the tram on Mount Robinson in Juneau. You are seeing downtown Juneau, a cruise ship and Douglas Island.
4 comments:
Ah, PetroChina. I placed a limit order for that stock a few weeks back and it since has shot up $16 a share with their recent oil and gas discovery in northeast China. I may have missed that boat on that one. Hillary Kramer recommended the stock as well.
52 Week High 142.60 on 12/28/2006.
52 Week Low 89.85 on 06/13/2006. I figured a $105 limit order and wait it out was a good idea. The stock was between 110 & 115 when I placed it.
Roger. A good possible future subject for discussion might be company takeovers.
"Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger said company directors should more actively scrutinize big acquisitions, particuarly if they’re all-stock deals. Mr. Buffett said chief executives with “big egos” become easily enamored with big acquisitions, goaded on by investment banks who stand to benefit from big banking fees."
Wall street loves takeovers because they believe that they mean that the market must be strong because companies would never take on more business if the business climate wasn't favorable. However, some economists say that these are harbingers of a market downturn. Who is right; and why does Buffet seem to side with the economists and not with Wall Street on this? There have a whole slew of recent company takeovers ("Takeover Monday") that have all resulted in the market spiking up.
I would sure like to know the truth on the reality of the situation.
Small correction from my previous post. I meant to say Merger Monday instead of "Takeover Monday", but most times they mean the same thing anyway. (don't they?)
There also seems to be no shortage of "this is the top, I'm loaded on margin with double inverse ETF" guys too.
I read somewhere that it's a lot easier to short the market than it used to be say 20 or even just 10 years ago (with inverse ETFs and the like) and this might be adding fuel to the up move as amateurs try to pick tops, get run over, and try to pick them again.
(I say this as someone who has sworn off QID after a couple kicks is the pants).
anon re inverse etfs,
On both a blog and a service I follow, I'm real surprised at the rapidity that the little guy is using shorts. Was it here that someone said the bears write so much better than the bulls? Seems human nature that the bears could be perceived as the smart money and that this with ease of an etf short inspires an impulsive bet.
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