Saturday, April 07, 2007
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This is a stock market blog about portfolio management,foreign stocks, exchange traded funds and the occasional musing about my firefighting experiences. The point here is to share process.
The opinions expressed on this site are those solely of Roger Nusbaum and do not necessarily represent those of Your Source Financial (“YSF”). This website is made available for educational and entertainment purposes only. Mr. Nusbaum is an Investment Adviser Representative of YSF, an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of the investment services or performance of YSF. Nothing on this website should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are an indication of future performance. A copy of YSF’s Part II of Form ADV is available upon request. In addition, a copy of YSF’s privacy notice can be obtained by click here. This website is in no way a solicitation or an offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. Mr. Nusbaum and YSF disclaim responsibility for updating information. In addition, Mr. Nusbaum and YSF disclaim responsibility for third-party content, including information accessed through hyperlinks. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
12 comments:
Roger you have any book recommendations for managing your own retirement?
I always look forward to your Saturday morning videos.
Ibby
I'm sorry I don't have a specific suggestion. Perhaps the Ray Lucia books?
Perhaps other readers can weigh in?
I tend to rely on my colleagues at work (two CFPs) for these types of issues.
I find it interesing (and amusing) to read investment media that is two or more years dated. So-called experts often appear mighty foolish when one looks into that rearview mirror. Roger is spot on when advising individuals to utilize a variety of resources coupled with personal tolerance of risk when developing a retirement plan.You don't want to look foolish when you look into your own rearview mirror.
Retirement itself has changed over the past few decades, with the miracles of modern medicine and knowledge of nutrition and wellness contributing to a longer quality and quantity of life. Although I no longer need to work, I do, and enjoy my varied investment-related employments. IMO, retirement now means to most individuals a continuation of work at a different level.
I have witnessed too many folks who have retired from work and also retired their brain and human creativity.Studies show that Alzheimers or other cruel afflictions may be liked to this life choice.
Hopefully, I will achieve my ultimate demise - being shot dead by a jealous husband at age one hundred and ten.
BC plays a great brand of hockey. Great passing team.
However, they were horrible in clearing the puck out of their own end the entire game.
They also played short-handed too many times.
And, as good as their goalie is, each time he went behind his net he left his goal exposed. Rarely was he able to get to the puck and pass it.
"cruel afflictions may be 'liked' to this life choice."
T--linked or likened--hmmm...it may have already begun through your daydreaming too much about being shot by a jealous husband!
So Larry, is the BC hockey team supposed to be some kind of cryptic analogy for Jim Cramer?
Anyway, here is a book written by a guy who has done some books on ETF's and index funds:
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/customer-reviews/0967294304/ref=cm_cr_dp_pt/104-5386893-0563946?ie=UTF8&n=283155&s=books
Here is another possiblity:
http://www.phildemuth.com/pages/retirement.html
Roger's reply to Ibby nailed it! I self-retired 7 years ago (that means I retired at a young age with no fat pension or health care). The two Ray Lucia books (Buckets of Money and Ready Set Retire) have been the best two investments I've made in terms of managing my retirement. They offer common sense solutions to asset allocation and the critical issue of how to withdraw assets in retirement and how much of your assets to withdraw each year so you don't end up slinging burgers in your 80s.
I also listen to Ray Lucia's radio show for a couple of hours every day and , at least for me, it's time well spent.
All I can say is 'so far so good'.
Anonymous at 7:54pm suggested the Phil DeMuth web site. He is another good choice. He is coauthor and partner with Ben Stein. Ben Stein is now consulting on retirement issues with Ray Lucia. See a pattern here?
I think in the end we each must take responsiblity for our own choices and future but it sure doesn't hurt to read Roger's blog and the writings of people like Lucia, Stein and DeMuth.
I find them to all be 'best of breed'.
Retired in Prescott, thanks for the comment and the book feedback; vey helpful.
Re BC hockey; not sure why the comment but I wad to watch the 3rd period on Tivo because of a social engagement here on the mountain last night, glad I didn't check the blog comments first, lol.
the truncated book link from amazon can be accessed here but to be clear I don't know the book or the author.
Models this week:
Timing Model = 5.5
100% long
Global Allocation of long positions:
MSCI EAFE Index 30%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 40%
U.S. Sector Ranks
U.S. Telecommunications 5.0
Mid Cap Value 4.5
U.S. Basic Materials 4.0
U.S. Utilities 4.0
U.S. Oil & Gas 4.0
U.S. Real Estate 4.0
U.S. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 3.0
U.S. Leisure Goods 2.5
Top ranked Intl. ETFs
MSCI Malaysia Index Fund 3
MSCI Singapore Index Fund 3
MSCI Australia Index Fund 3
MSCI Germany Index Fund 3
MSCI Mexico Index Fund 3
MSCI Pacific ex-Japan Index Fund 3
S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund 3
MSCI Sweden Index Fund 3
MSCI Austria Index Fund 3
Top ranked styles, asset classes, regions
MSCI Pacific Free ex-Japan Index 4.0
S&P Latin America 40 Index 4.0
FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index 3.0
MSCI Emerging Markets Index 3.0
MSCI European Monetary Union Index 3.0
Retirement planning is still a bit confusing and I am probably only 21 months away from, at least, my wife retiring.
My current thinking is to take about 4% a year out of the portfolio. Then, based on how the portfolio did the past year (or 6 months, whatever), take 1/2 of the gain less the 4%, I already took. So, if the portfolio went up 8%, I would take 2% as a "bonus" for that year. I am pretty sure that 4% plus the other income will support our lifestyle.
In addition, I am thinking of keeping, say 2 years worth of the 4% in CD's and rolling them forward so I don't have to deplete equity assets in a down market.
The question I am struggling with now, is how to allocate the withdrawals between IRA and taxable portfolio. I am thinking that I will have about 60% in a traditional IRA, 5% in a Roth, and 35% in taxable accounts. I am leaning toward withdrawing the same percentages for each type of account as the percentage of the portfolio. Any thoughts on that?
I have noted the books mentioned in the earlier posts.
Rick
Rick, I'm sorry but your idea of taking a bonus strikes me as very risky.
The years where "extra" is earned is what makes the 4% figure work, it offsets years that the market is down. Your idea takes away from your offset which is really a margin of safety.
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