The Australian dollar went firmly above US$0.80 and it is easy to find opinion calling for it to keep going; some folks are calling for $0.82 I saw one comment in a Bloomberg article calling for $0.86 by year end.As much as I like Australia as an investment destination I have to think this move up is a little over done. Amusingly Ben Pedley from LGT Bank, whom I have the utmost respect for, answered an email on the air that I sent in to Asia Squawk Box on the subject. I asked if the Aussie might be a little over bought, he said it probably is but that it could go to $0.82 or $0.83 before any sort of a pullback.
Apparently the futures market is pricing in three rate cuts by the Fed this year. Count me as a naysayer on that action.
I caught a few minutes of the Kudlow show last night and they talked at length about ETFs and one of the guests for the segment was Matt Hougan from Index Universe, way to go Matt.
There was someone from XTF Advisors (please correct me I have this wrong) with a 60/40 ETF portfolio as follows;
- S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) 24%
- Vanguard Mid Cap (VO) 8%
- iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) 9%
- MSCI EAFE (EFA) 19%
- iShares ST Treasury (SHY) 8.5%
- iShares Intermediate Treasury (IEF) 8.5%
- iShares LT Treasury (TLT) 7%
- iShares Corp Bond (LQD) 5%
- Vanguard REIT (VNQ) 11%
As far as treasury ETFs unless they are for small accounts or for a trade I would say most folks are better to lock in a rate with an actual treasury.
One last point, here is a vote for Pisani to replace Kudlow. Bob mostly just asked question in the part of the show I saw without pounding the audience, or the guests, over the head with his opinions.
I said this in a video post a couple of weeks ago, for as little as I see the show, I really don't trust when he spits out data, I don't know if it is cherry picked to the point of being misleading, I just don't know.
23 comments:
Bob Pisani...Right on America.
Has a certain ring to it, I'll agree with you on this one.
the mention of kudlow could lead to a venting fest. i'll take bob hands down. I wonder how he squares away with cramer who confessed that he loved using him to spread disinformation, presumably because bob is perceived as having high credibility.
re Matt's segment, i really like Matt and the whole IU staff.
They are both nabobs. Pisani is just less of one.
dnf
I quit watching when Kudlow took over. I would start watching if he was replaced by a reporter rather than a fanatic. CNBC seems to be afraid of truth and facts so they favor Kudlow.
I'm not sure if the network is afraid of the truth and facts but it is strange to me that a show moderator spends so much time interjecting is own opinions to the point of shout over his own guests.
Here I differentiate from JJC in that no matter what you think of him he is the show not a moderator.
I wonder when his contract is up. Seems inevitable that he'd move to the Fox bidness channel. Hopefully something more relevant (or at least entertaining) will take his spot.
I find all of these index recipes amusing. Will 24% SPY, 8% VO and 9% IWM act significantly different than 1/3rd VV, 1/3rd VO and 1/3rd VB? I think not. Beta should be simple, so you can concentrate on the alpha, LOL!
Kudlow assembles the most interesting panels, but his mono-messages and squelching of his guest's opining is so off-putting I no longer watch.
I agree that Larry Kudlow is hard to listen to. His poorly modulated voice and language pacing is annoying.
I have a simple test for the media. When I find myself commenting at a tv personality as though he or she can hear me, I force myself to turn the program off. It is therapeutic, and allows me to spend my time in a more productive manner.
I think I last watched CNN for any length of time in 1991.
When the Fox Bidness Channel gets up and running, CNBC will move even further to the right. They will not differentiate themselves by a more moderate tone, but try to hold onto the troglodyte ancients by offering the same delirium.
I now watch only Bloomberg.
86 cents is the purchasing power parity rate for the Aussie according to the Big Mac Index. Even lower rates seemed to have been putting a strain on the Australian economy - with a large trade deficit - so I wouldn't bet on it neccessarily getting there.
Ok, let me (sort of) take the other side on Larry Kudlow:
1) He has a philosophy.
2) He can and does deliver the salient "Rightist" view into the issues. This means when you listen to his - often tortured - logic on some issue (e.g. I' like how Bush has become "the decider" or who cares if a few people get wiretapped etc... etc...) you're that much more convinced of your own POV.
3) Also, credit him for bringing on guests, over and over, with whom he disagrees.
I like CNBC when they are experimental and self-examining. I'm also a big Bloomberg fan, yet I think if a Kudlow left to a FOX biz network, it would force CNBC to "position" themselves with the remaining audiance.
I saw a FOX show a few weeks ago that had the chyron "Bush's tax cuts saved the economy" and it was left it up the whole show.
The other day on the 4th anniversary of the Iraq war while Bloomberg ran they usual headline stuff with "Poll: Iraqis do not have confidence in Coalition" coming up every now and then, FOX had "Iraqis thank Americans" for the whole half and hour!
The point is FOX hasn't improved news journalism for ‘The Right,’ it has hurt it since they don't allow the arguments they support to be battle tested. When someone comes up to me and starts talking about some half truth they heard on FOX, it's easy to rip them with the data. How does this help?
At FOX, would Larry Kudlow bring the people in he disagrees with? I admit since the correction he's been more demonstrative, but he's got a lot riding on his Goldilocks call. I'm not justifying it, I just think he'll calm down a bit now.
http://www.zealllc.com/2007/beareve.htm
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/mchugh/2007/0318.html
Lets try that one again...
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/mchugh/2007/0318.html
DB
Ain't I the fool. It truncates.
Here is the full URL, splt.
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/mchugh/2007/0318.html
/editorials/mchugh/2007/0318.html
Maybe someone can help me post these right.
Now I see the original attempt worked. It was wrong on my screen. Ain't tech great!
If anyone who has never seen these links before, I recommend. I download the 4 hours of audio every week religiously at Midnight Sat Am. Play half or more then, and play the whole shebang before Monday. Best free info on the web, outside of Roger's Blog IMHO.
http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm
And the daily articles are here:
http://www.financialsense.com/index.html
Book Rec here:
http://www.europac.net/report/index_crashproof.asp
Best Regards and have a great week!
I think Doug Kass should be made an offer. It will coincide greatly with the coming bear market. :)
Venn: Kudlow's problem is that he always has the same point of view regardless of what's happening in the economy or the market. He's had the same point of view for decades.
It is one thing when you stick to your guns about issues like faith, democracy, abortion, etc... but this is the Market.
The market goes up and down. The economy goes in cycles. We have a recession every now and then... things change...
yet he keeps repeating the same POV like a broken record, and keeps trying to impose his views on everybody.
Thanks, Roger - glad you caught the spot. It was fun to head down to the CNBC studios to do the show.
I enjoy the blog, btw.
Could you expand a bit on this ... "There are ways to adjust things like volatility, yield, correlation, style and so on if are willing to explore a little bit, do some work and think outside the lines."
Can you talk a bit more about that? Alternatives to SHY, LQD OR AGG ...
thanks
Our country and our economy needs cheerleaders. Far too many people somehow think we can self-flagellate our way to prosperity. Why not be proud of our systems world-dominating performance?
Kudlow is my hero.
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