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8 comments:
Congrats Roger. Great job. Gives more credibility to your reaction on Feb. 27th. I was a smidgen ahead of the market for the quarter, but with a lot more trading than you. In hindsight, cooler heads prevailed. Congrats again.
My posture is still leaning bearish with a ton of cash and more shorts (and put options) than longs.
I just finished reading Ken Fisher's new book, "The Only Three Questions that Count," and i cannot help but think that his approach is SO similar to yours. At times it felt like reading a book version of your blog. I guess it shows that great minds think a like.
One last thing. There is a widget that is starting to pop-up on few websites here and there from a site called www.stockalicious.com.
Basically allows you to post your portfolio on the blog and keeps track of it for you. I know several people asked about your yahoo portfolio in the past. This maybe a way to make it available to the readers.
I can think of many reasons why you wouldn't want to.
But in case you did want to but Yahoo limited you, this is an option that makes it possible.
The Fly is a professional money manager in Jersey and beats the market by hundreds of basis points every quarter by holding a diversified basket of stocks and he mentions on his blog everytime he does a buy or sell. I think he was up around 13% for the quarter and had a 2006 return of 25%. My point is a good money manager like this that is running millions can handily beat the market by hundreds of basis points every quarter without taking on undue risk. He is one of those people who are just a natural at picking stocks. His site is...
flyonwallstreet.blogspot.com
Roger, I am not trying to promote his site but simply oppose your view that certain people cannot handily outperform every single quarter.
JOE
JOE, I think you might be adding one plus one and getting eleven as far as my comment.
"I am not trying to promote his site but simply oppose your view that certain people cannot handily outperform every single quarter."
I think what I said was that if you beat the market by 15% in one quarter you took a lot of risk to get there.
I am familiar with the site they are undoubtedly better stock pickers than me but the trading is much more frequent than what is written about here and probably they do more trading than most do-it-yourselfers should attempt to do.
If you put every nickel you had into DNDN on Thursday did you take risk? You took insane risk but the consequence of that risk was not realized.
A good trading system takes risks but measures the risk with discipline and exit strategies.
Long term low beta growth (what I try to do for clients) has no context in a discussion about the success Broker A is having. It is apples and sledge hammers.
There is nothing "wrong" with trying to beat the market by 15 percentage points in a 3 month period but most folks will find they are not cut out for that type of market participation; I certainly am not.
Well Roger, you beat me. I did 3.11% for the quarter, that's a combination of my buy and hold portfolio and my TAA portfolio. On the whole I'm happy with that. On the TAA side I was holding a lot of cash since the beginning of the year but ramped up my equity exposure pretty quickly after we hit bottom. Hopefully equities will run up for a while from here.
I haven't spent the time dissecting performance between the two portfolios. Might not get to that until later in the week.
Roger and Jolly Bloggers. I really appreciate the time you put in on the site. I had a question about an ETF and a stock.
IOO is a basket holding the 100 largest stocks in the world, so is diversified to that extent.
HAN is a British infrastructure (cement, pipelines, etc.) conglomerate that has a goal of about 50% of its market share in the U.S.
I believe that regardless of the direction of the market in the near term, that good international infrastructure companies will do well. Appreciate any thoughts on either. thanks, Scoot.
not a fan of the mega caps, generally. they lag for most of the cycle, usually.
don't know HAN as well as I used but it seems to have held its own against other cement companies like RIN, CX and FRK.
Models this week:
Timing Model = 5.5
100% long
Global Allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index - 30%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index - 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. - 40%
Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Telecommunications 5.0
U.S. Basic Materials 4.5
U.S. Utilities 4.5
U.S. Oil & Gas 4.0
Mid Cap Value 3.5
U.S. Real Estate 3.5
U.S. Leisure Goods 3.0
U.S. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 3.0
Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Malaysia Index Fund 3
MSCI Singapore Index Fund 3
MSCI Australia Index Fund 3
MSCI Germany Index Fund 3
MSCI Mexico Index Fund 3
MSCI Pacific ex-Japan Index Fund 3
MSCI Spain Index Fund 3
Top Asset Classes, styles, regions
MSCI Pacific Free ex-Japan Index 3.0
FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index 3.0
S&P Latin America 40 Index 3.0
MSCI Emerging Markets Index 2.0
MSCI European Monetary Union Index 2.0
MSCI EAFE Growth Index 2.0
The following is a list of first quarter returns of my portfolios:
Benchmarks
VBINX(60/40) 1.4%. 59% market risk( vs S&P 500)
S&P 500 0.6% 100% risk
Portfolio 1(2 positions)
50% VINEX 50% VBINX 4% 90% risk
Portolio 2(30 positions)
80% bonds/20% stocks 2.2% 30% risk
portfolio 3(35 positions)
40% bonds/60 stocks 3% 60% risk
As the message seems to say the return does not necessarlly correlate with the risk of the portfolio. There are good risk and bad risk.
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